Courcy’s Intelligence Brief
Risk pointers
*** Hamas threat. Gaza Strip prime minister, Ismail Haniyeh, said on 15 April that capturing Israeli soldiers was the best way for Hamas to secure the release of prisoners held by Israel. He said: “Abducting Israeli soldiers is a top priority on the agenda of Hamas and the Palestinian resistance.”
In June 2006, militants from Gaza captured Israeli soldier Gilad Shalit. He was released in October 2011 in exchange for 1,027 Palestinian prisoners in Israeli jails.
*** Turkey and the European Union. Turkey’s new European Affairs Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu has been saying that he intends to rejuvenate Turkey-EU relations, but few believe he will be successful.
Turkey has been trying to join the European Union since 1963, and until recently it was serious in the endeavour. Observers in Ankara, however, now view Turkish-EU relations as being all-but dead. The technical talks, we are told, are being kept going by both sides simply because neither side wants to be the one to ‘call time’.
EU high officials no longer believe that Turkey has a European vocation (amongst other things, they cite Prime Minister Erdogan’s increasing authoritarianism, including threats against the judiciary), and many Turkish leaders now believe that Turkey no longer needs the EU.
*** Japan-South Korea talks make little progress. On 16 April South Korean and Japanese officials met to discuss the issue of Korean women made to serve in Japanese military brothels during World War II (so-called Comfort Women). Japan’s position remains that all compensation issues were settled in 1965, but South Korea is demanding more for the 55 surviving comfort women and a more fulsome apology.
Reports of the meeting say that the two sides “failed to narrow differences”, but another round of talks is scheduled for May, and the hope is that a summit meeting between Japan’s Prime Minister Shinzo Abe and South Korea’s President Park Geun Hye can be arranged.
Japanese sources say the talks are part of a concerted effort to improve Seoul-Tokyo relations ahead of President Barack Obama’s visit to the region next week.