Courcy’s Intelligence Brief
Venezuela to get worse before it gets better
The crisis in Venezuela shows little sign of easing, and the latest opinion polls suggest that worse is to come.
Almost 80% of Venezuelans think the country is in a pretty bad state, while 69% view dimly the government led by President Nicolas Maduro, according to a new omnibus survey by local pollsters Datanálisis, released on 5 May.
Half the respondents self-identifying as Chavistas viewed the country negatively. Amongst the opposition, the figure was 96.9%, while 89.6% of the ‘ni-ni’s’ (‘neither-nors’) agreed. Seven of every ten said the political situation was “unstable”; 65.2% said the same of the Maduro government itself.
The main concern for most people (32.5%) is the scarcity of basic supermarket goods, followed by personal insecurity (23.5%) and the high cost of living (8.5%). Earlier this week, President Maduro launched a new ‘secure food supply’ electronic card, which entitles people to a basket of basic goods once a week and is meant to ensure equitable supplies. It also tracks people’s purchases in state-run supermarkets, in an effort to prevent hoarding. Critics have dubbed it a ration-card, similar to Cuba’s ‘libreta’ (little book).
Over two-thirds of the 1,300 people surveyed by Datanálisis between 31 March and 20 April said they support peaceful protests, but there was widespread opposition across all sectors to the disruptive ‘guarimbas’ (make-shift street barricades erected by anti-government protestors).
The key point to watch for is the increasing number of people who do not think Maduro should complete his presidential term, only just over a year after 51% of the country voted him in as president.
According to the poll, 59.1% of respondents believe he should not stay in the Miraflores palace until 2019. Of these, 39% (predictably, most opposition or non-aligned) said he should abandon his post this year. A fifth (20.1%) backed the idea of a recall referendum come the half-way point of the current term in 2016. Only 20% said he should see out his term to early 2019.
These kinds of numbers may exacerbate the rumoured splits in the government between a hardline nationalist-military wing and a more Cuban-influenced civilian wing.