Caribbean & Central America - May 2014 (ISSN 1741-4458)

Antigua & Barbuda’s Prime Minister Baldwin Spencer is taking the maximum possible time available to him under the constitution before calling a general election, which does not suggest much confidence in the electoral prospects of his United Progressive Party (UPP).

It was generally expected that an election would have been called by the fifth anniversary of the 2009 general election on 12 March, but Spencer invoked election-related legal processes, started by the opposition Antigua Labour Party (ALP), as a reason for the delay. In the end parliament was dissolved automatically on 26 April, the fifth anniversary of its first sitting after the 2009 election, and an election has to be held within 90 days, that is no later than 25 July. Even so, at the time of writing, Spencer has still not named the day as he says he is not yet satisfied that Electoral Commission is ready to hold the election.

In remarks published on 9 May, Spencer said that he had to be satisfied that the Electoral Commission “is in a position to conduct the elections in a manner that is satisfactory in order to ensure that we have free and fair elections and to avoid some of the debacle we would have had in 2009”. He added: “That is a reasonable and understandable position.”

The UPP was voted into power in 2004 after the electorate tired of 28 years of uninterrupted ALP rule, or rather 28 years of uninterrupted rule by the Bird family. The electorate was fed up with the corruption associated with the ALP, and the introduction of an Electoral Commission after the disputed 1999 election ensured that the anti-ALP sentiment prevailed. The UPP won 12 seats to the ALP’s four, with the UPP-aligned Barbuda People’s Movement picking up the final seat in the 17-seat House of Representatives.

In the 2009 election, the UPP lost ground, taking nine seats to the ALP’s seven (with the BPM retaining its one seat), but the UPP’s victory was assured after the scandal broke surrounding the financier, Alan Stanford, just weeks before voting. Accused (and later convicted) of massive fraud by the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), Stanford was seen as being close to the Bird family. He had previously lent the Bird government US$65m. Spencer, on the other hand, had refused to attend Stanford’s investiture as a knight in 2006 on the grounds that the financier had “a lien on our whole country”.

It was a good call, but memories are fading - and there is no longer someone carrying the Bird name at the head of the ALP, although its leader Gaston Browne is married to Maria Bird, niece of former prime minister, Lester Bird (1994-2004).

The UPP is also having to answer for its stewardship of an economy that has suffered badly in recent years, although it is now recovering slightly. The economy contracted by 10.7% in 2009 and by a further 8.6% in 2010. In 2011 the contraction was a less severe 2.1%, and this was followed by growth of 2.8% in 2012. However, 2013 was again slow, with just 0.5% growth. For 2014, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) is expecting growth of 1.6%, but on 3 May, the IMF reported that “risks to this outlook are high” due to the country’s “unsustainable fiscal situation” and the large amounts of nonperforming loans in the banking sector.

The IMF warned that despite “progress made in bank resolution” delays in reforms “are exacerbating fiscal risks and undermining the stability of the banking system”. The IMF report “encouraged the authorities to articulate a comprehensive medium-term fiscal consolidation program to put the public debt on a sustainable path”. The IMF called for “a redoubling of efforts to implement tax administration reforms”.

A key battle area for the election will be unemployment, which the latest figures suggest is standing at just over 10% on the basis of the 2011 census data released in early May. The government is saying that it can reduce the unemployment rate to zero by 2016 if it is given a third term in office. Speaking on 8 May, Minister of Labour Errol Coort said: “It is our goal within the next 24 months to eliminate all unemployment in this fair land of ours.” He said this would be achieved by revamping the government’s work experience programme to include up to 500 young people and by working with the World Bank to create over 1,500 new jobs.

Not surprisingly, the ALP professes to be unimpressed with these pledges, and it is arguing that unemployment (and under-employment) is much worse than the government is admitting. The latest figure of 10.2% is three years old, and ALP leader Gaston Browne is saying that research conducted by the ALP suggests that unemployment and under-employment combined amounts to 25%.