Caribbean & Central America - May 2014 (ISSN 1741-4458)

***GUYANA-SURINAME DISPUTE STILL AN IMPEDIMENT. The disputed area known in Guyana (which controls it) as the New River Triangle and in Suriname (where it forms the southwest border with Guyana) as Tigri is still capable of causing tensions between the two countries. Last month Guyana turned down an invitation to attend the International Mining, Energy & Petroleum Conference and Exhibition (SURIMEP 2014) in Paramaribo in June because the Suriname map that was being circulated included the area as Suriname territory.

The disputed area has been controlled by Guyana since 1969. On 12 May, Suriname’s Foreign Affairs Minister Winston Lackin told the National Assembly that Guyana has been “making moves on the Tigri area for 40 years now”. Lackin added that Suriname could have gone to war over the disputed territory but that “wars cost money [and] we rather use those for public health and education”.

A joint committee has been established by Suriname and Guyana that has held four meetings in the past three years, but clearly the issue still has the capability to cause disruption in bilateral relations. Lackin said that he is convinced that “a constructive solution is the best outcome”, but he added that the issue remained a priority for President Desi Bouterse.

***IMF COMPLETES BELIZE REVIEW. On 9 May, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) completed its latest Article IV discussions with Belize. At the conclusion of the talks, the IMF issued a statement saying: “Over the medium-term, real GDP growth is expected to hover around 2.5% a year as declining oil production would be offset by higher output of other commodity exports, tourism, and construction.”

For the IMF, risks to Belize’s economy “continue to be tilted to the downside” because of the threat of external vulnerabilities that “could arise from a protracted period of weak growth in advanced economies or complications with Petrocaribe financing”.

The IMF recommends “a more ambitious rascal stance to crate credible policy buffers that would help address downside risks”. This could be achieved “by a combination of revenue, expenditure, public financial management, and debt management measures”.

***BAHAMAS MISSES GROWTH TARGET FOR 2013. Preliminary figures released by the Department of Statistics at the beginning of May indicate that The Bahamas grew by just 0.7% in 2013, well below the 1.9% projected by the IMF as recently as last October. The growth figure for 2012 has also been revised downwards, from 1.83% to 1.03%.

The Central Bank of The Bahamas says that the economic recovery “is still very fragile” and that “this below-trend growth is expected to persist over the near-term as the domestic environment continues to face significant headwinds due to the modest recovery in the global economy”.

The bank said that in 2013 tourism expenditure decreased by an estimated 3% as a result of a reduction in the number of stopover arrivals. Residential construction was down by 8.6% and “other construction” was down by 10% “as a result of the winding down of major construction projects such as the Airport Development Project and the New Providence Road Project”.