Brazil & Southern Cone - May 2014 (ISSN 1741-4431)

With just three months to go before President Horacio Cartes marks his first full year in power, his authoritative style has eroded much of the political goodwill he was initially afforded both by the opposition and the ruling traditional Asociación Nacional Republicana-Partido Colorado (ANR-PC), in which, as a newcomer, he is considered something of an interloper. The growing discontent with the Cartes administration has produced some serious divisions in congress, risking a breakdown in relations between the executive and the legislature.

When Cartes, a business tycoon who turned his hands to politics ahead of the 2013 elections, assumed office in August last year, he did so as a political unknown. Cartes had never held public office and most of Paraguay’s politicians, including many within the ANR-PC itself, were unsure about him. In a bid to paint himself as someone aiming to build a broad political consensus behind government policy, rather than rely upon the ANR-PC’s majority in both house of congress to govern, Cartes sought to emulate Mexico’s President Enrique Peña Nieto by trying to force a broad political agreement in congress on a national legislative agenda.

Cartes failed to reach agreement with all the opposition parties, but he did manage a deal with the main centre-right opposition Partido Liberal Radical Auténtico (PLRA) - the so-called ‘Pacto Azulgrana’[RBS-13-06]. But since then, Cartes has proven less open to political dialogue than his initial overtures suggested. He has paid only lip service to his promise to seek political consensus around his policy plans, and instead has more often than not resorted to the ANR-PC’s congressional dominance to expedite passage of his initiatives.

Availing of its majority, the executive thus has succeeded in rushing through congress a number of controversial initiatives, including an amendment to the country’s military law and a new public-private law (APP), despite pointed opposition reservations (including in the PLRA). The president’s critics (which include some political rivals in the ANR-PC) accuse him of seeking to impose an authoritarian rather than a deliberative government, to the detriment of democracy.

Pacto Azulgrana begins to unravel

The president’s preference for steam-rolling through his initiatives has also led to social discontent. Labour unions last year staged the first general strike in the country in decades in protest at government policies (in particular the new APP law) and the manner in which the Cartes administration imposed its political will [RBS-14-04]. In response to this, some PLRA politicians urged the party leadership to reconsider the Pacto Azulgrana at the party’s recent (8 April) political committee meeting.

Even though the PLRA party leadership admitted that the government’s behaviour was undermining the Pacto Azulgrana, it decided against pulling out of the agreement, arguing that it would go counter to the party’s pledge to act as a ‘constructive opposition’ in congress. The decision upset some PLRA legislators, who argued that this did not mean that the PLRA should unconditionally support the legislative agenda. Deputy Enrique Antonio Buzarquis mooted forming a dissident PLRA bench in the chamber of deputies to provide a “clear but responsible” opposition to the Cartes government.

By 28 April, Buzarquis had secured the support of six fellow PLRA deputies (of the total 27) to form a dissident PLRA bench in the 80-seat lower chamber. According to Buzarquis, this new bench will act independently of the PLRA party leadership in order to “vindicate the decision adopted at the last party convention to provide a constructive opposition”. In particular, Buzarquis said, the dissident deputies will seek to promote social development policies, which, he argued, are largely being ignored by the Cartes administration.

Re-alignments on the Left

Soon after presenting the dissident PLRA bench, Buzarquis announced that the group had reached an agreement with deputies from other centre-left opposition parties to form a new “parliamentary front” minded to work as one to promote a common agenda in congress.

The ‘Frente Legislativo por la defensa de los derechos económicos, sociales y culturales’ is comprised of 10 deputies- Buzarquis’s PLRA followers plus deputies from the small Partido Encuentro Nacional (PEN); the main leftist coalition, Frente Guasú (FG); and the second largest leftist coalition, Avanza País (AP).

Buzarquis said the Frente would to be jointly coordinated by Víctor Ríos (PLRA) and Rocío Casco (AP). Ríos said each deputy would try to influence their individual parties to support the Frente’s common agenda. This could potentially give the opposition considerably more clout. If the PLRA, FG and AP joined forces, they could better stand up to the ANR-PC, stall key initiatives and potentially block its qualified majority.

Leftist opposition parties have been attempting to replicate the new Frente in the senate. On 19 May, senators from FG, AP, PEN and the small Partido Democrático Progresista (PDP) said they had reached a “programmatic agreement” on forming an 11-member bloc in the 45-seat senate. The announcement was made by FG senators Sixto Pereira and Carlos Filizzola, who said that ‘Bloque 11’ would pursue a well-defined reform agenda (see sidebar) and seek to provide stronger opposition to the Cartes government. The senators added that the ‘Bloque 11’ would be open to alliances with other Cartes opponents “mainly from the PLRA, but also from the ANR-PC”.

Discontent among ANR-PC ranks continues

That the ‘Bloque 11’ appealed to the president’s critics within the ANR-PC was not casual. In recent weeks ANR-PC leaders including the congress president, Deputy Julio César Velázquez, have again been critical of Cartes for not consulting with the party in the development of government policy. ANR-PC leaders have repeatedly complained that the party is not adequately represented in Cartes’s technocratic cabinet. Velázquez has said that “90% of ANR-PC members are unhappy” with Cartes; and that he hoped Cartes would attempt to rectify this “before the party abandons him”.

Notably, elections for a new congressional leadership must take place before the end of the current period of ordinary sessions on 30 June. The mood in congress, with a resurgent opposition and an unhappy ANR-PC, could mean that the president’s critics succeed in securing some relevant leadership roles. That could put a more serious strain on executive-legislative relations moving forward.

• Bloque 11

The Bloque 11’s agenda covers reform of the judiciary to change the appointment process for supreme court judges and prosecutors; and a broad electoral reform, including changes to the way in which electoral authorities are elected, and reforms to the regulations governing the formation of political parties and electoral alliances. Some of these reforms would require amending the constitution.

• New appointments

On 9 May President Cartes appointed two members of the ruling ANR-PC as deputy ministers in the new labour & social security ministry. The new ministry was created in March, after Cartes split the labour & justice ministry. The ANR-PC leadership had pressured Cartes for control of the new ministry but in keeping with his previous ministerial appointments, Cartes named a technocrat, Guillermo Sosa. However in a bid to appease the party, Cartes named César Augusto Segovia as the new deputy labour minister and Matías Orlando Fernández as the new deputy social security minister.