Courcy’s Intelligence Brief

*** China’s hawks in the ascendancy in Singapore.  In a number of recent issues we have optimistically observed possible signs that China might wish to de-escalated its confrontation with Japan over the territorial disputes in the East China Sea.  No doubt those reports did reflect the views of elements within the Chinese policymaking elite, but at last week’s Shangri-La security conference in Singapore the hawkish (military) tendency was in full control.  Of the 100 or so fringe meetings between officials from various countries over the course of the conference, none was held between Chinese and Japanese officials.  China’s deputy chief of staff Lt General Wang Guanzhong said no such meeting could take place until Japan corrected “its erroneous policy towards China”.  Japan should, he said, “correct its mistakes as soon as possible to improve China-Japan ties”.

By contrast, and once again indicating that not all influential voices in China agree with the hardline approach to Japan, the China-Japan Asia CEO Forum was held this week in Tokyo for the first time in three years.  Chinese businessman Charles Yin, the founder of the forum, said: “Relations between China and Japan are in a state to be very concerned so I thought economic leaders need to stand up and hold dialogues to deepen mutual understanding and communicate with each other so as to contribute to the prosperity and peace of the Asian economy and society.”

*** Parliamentary challenge to Egypt’s President al-Sisi.  Although ex-Field Marshal Abd-al-Fattah al-Sisi has been overwhelmingly elected president of Egypt, he could face an unexpected challenge from parliament in due course.  The latest Egyptian constitution gives strong powers to parliament, and al-Sisi lacks a political party.  This could even provide an opportunity for the ousted and banned Muslim Brotherhood to claw back some influence.

The House of Representatives is the only chamber of parliament.  Amongst other things, it can pass laws without the authority of the president with a two-thirds majority.  It has important influence on budgetary matters, and the prime minister is appointed with majority approval.  The president can only dissolve parliament following a referendum.

Treaties have to be approved by the House, and the president cannot declare war or send the armed forces on a combat mission without a two-thirds yes vote in parliament.  In certain circumstances, the House of Representatives can demand an early presidential election.

New parliamentary elections are due to be held later this year.