Caribbean & Central America - October 2014 (ISSN 1741-4458)

In our July issue we looked in depth at the success Jamaica is having in implementing its International Monetary Fund (IMF)-invigilated reforms and how this was being achieved in part through (in the words of IMF chief Christine Lagarde) “a great innovation in ownership” of the reform programme. By this, Lagarde meant the creation of an inclusive Economic Program Oversight Committee to monitor the content and progress of reforms from the outside. Jamaica continues to make good progress, impressing both the IMF and ratings agencies such as Standard & Poor’s. But the People’s National Party (PNP) government led by Portia Simpson Miller has reached the halfway point of its five year term and electoral calculations must inevitably begin to move centre stage.

During September, Jamaica received an upgrade of the country’s rating from ‘stable’ to ‘positive’ from Standard & Poor’s (on 19 September it affirmed Jamaica’s ‘B’ longer-term foreign and local currency and ‘B’ short-term foreign and local currency credit ratings). It also received another strongly positive review from the IMF, which said on 24 September that “the program is on track” and that “gains from Jamaica’s demanding reform program are emerging” with growth projected to surpass 1% in 2014/15.

At the PNP’s annual conference on 21 September, Simpson Miller showed no sign of weakening, saying on the one hand that “our generation has a sacred duty and a moral obligation to secure our nation’s future by bequeathing to our children and their offspring a better, stronger, more viable Jamaica”. Nowhere did she suggest any intention to backslide, but the opposition Jamaica Labour Party (JLP) is accusing the government of keeping the IMF happy while failing “the people’s test”, and as the election gets closer so the need to counter this allegation must grow.

• “During September, Jamaica received an upgrade of the country’s rating from ‘stable’ to ‘positive’ from Standard & Poor’s (on 19 September it affirmed Jamaica’s ‘B’ longer-term foreign and local currency and ‘B’ short-term foreign and local currency credit ratings). It also received another strongly positive review from the IMF, which said on 24 September that “the program is on track” and that “gains from Jamaica’s demanding reform program are emerging” with growth projected to surpass 1% in 2014/15.”