Courcy's Special Alerts

A 24 October commentary on Hong Kong from the respected Australian Lowy Institute think tank warns that the struggle for democratic rights in Hong Kong is set to be a long one.  It reminds readers that we are already 20 years into the 50-year ‘One Country, Two Systems’ framework, and it cautions: “We cannot imagine how China will look in 2047; yet on current trends its legal system will still be vastly different than Hong Kong’s.  Probably in another decade, the reality of that impending collision will start to sink in.  History may record Occupy Central as the first tremor of concern.”  This is a sobering thought for the medium-term.  Meanwhile, as regards the immediate future, an analysis of Chinese media coverage of the protests (produced by the excellent BBC Monitoring Service) suggests that despite the offer of talks there will be no compromise from Beijing.

On 21 October, the Chief Secretary for Administration Carrie Lam made it clear that while she was prepared to submit a new report to China’s National People’s Congress Standing Committee (NPCSC) on the pro-democracy movement’s concerns, there was no chance of any changes to the basic law.  It was the NPC that decided on 31 August that Hong Kong chief executive candidates should be vetted.

The first round of talks between the protesters and the Hong Kong government was reported by the mainland Chinese press, but not shown live on television (television reports simply carried Lam’s opening nine-minute statement).  Recent coverage has shown no sign of wavering from the line taken as far back as 29 August by the Chinese-language edition of the Global Times that protesters “should not imagine that such a powerful country will yield to please them”.

On 13 October, in an indication of Beijing’s strong support for the Hong Kong administration, China’s highest-circulation newspaper Reference News reported on  its front page: “Chief Executive CY Leung implores Occupy Central protesters to give up on their illusions.”  The BBC Monitoring Service analysis shows that during the past month, many mainland dailies have focused on the negative impact of the protests on Hong Kong society and business life.  They have focused on the protests being “illegal”, “unpopular”, and “damaging to Hong Kong’s stability”.

While the talks on 21 October marked a change in Beijing’s approach from stonewalling to showing a willingness to talk, there is little expectation of a breakthrough in Hong Kong, where the media is pessimistic about a solution.  The largely impartial Ming Pao warned on 22 October: “If the protesters continue to believe only in their ideals without regard for limitations in reality, we cannot see any way out from the talks.”

The pro-democracy Apple Daily showed similar pessimism on 22 October, saying that it was difficult to “see the difference between the two sides narrowing after this round of talks”.

Back on the mainland, on 23 October, Reference News pronouncedd that Hong Kong people’s “patience is exhausted” and that despite “government sincerity in trying to find a warm solution” there was deadlock between the two parties.

All of this raises two thoughts: the first is that there is still no sign that Beijing and Hong Kong have worked out how to navigate their way out of the current impasse; the second is that the Lowy Institute is surely right, whatever happens in the short-term (short of a capitulation by Beijing, which will not happen), this is likely to be seen as “the first tremor of concern” in a long run-in to 2047.

END