Weekly Report - 12 November 2009 (WR-09-45)

MEXICO | The economy. Local economists are downgrading their growth forecasts for 2010. The government is budgeting on GDP growth of 3%, but Marco Pérez Valtier, from a consultancy, Pérez Góngora y Asociados, argues that the rate will be between 1% and 2%. He is also forecasting significantly higher inflation than the government's forecast of 3.3%. He reckons that 5% is more likely. It is also worth noting that the official (Inegi) consumer confidence indicator fell again in October after a couple of months of rises. Local commentators say that the budget decision to increase income taxes is the most likely reason for the fall in confidence.