Caribbean & Central America - March 2015 (ISSN 1741-4458)

Guyana’s People’s Progressive Party/Civic (PPP/C) government, led by President Donald Ramotar, will face the electorate on 11 May, more than 18 months before it had to. Ramotar called the election in order to end the political deadlock produced by the 2011 result in which the PPP/C won the presidency (by gaining the most number of votes) but failed to win control of the 65-member parliament. A notable difference this time around will be that the main opposition grouping, A Partnership for National Unity (APNU), has formed an electoral alliance with the country’s third political force, the Alliance for Change (AFC). However, opinion polls suggest that this innovation has so far failed to sway the electorate in significant numbers. This election, like the last one, is likely to be tight.

It has been said often enough, but race remains the key factor. Since the electoral reform forced on President Desmond Hoyte and the Afro-Guyanese dominated People’s National Congress (PNC – now the main component of the APNU) in 1990, the PPP/C has held power thanks to the preponderance of Guyanese of Indian descent. The Indo-Guyanese make up 43.4% of the population, according to the 2002 census, whereas the Afro-Guyanese constitute 30.2%. Mixed-race Guyanese represent another 16.7%, while the indigenous population makes up 9.1%.

While the PNC held power from 1964 to 1992 (partly as a result of a split in the PPP in 1955 and partly as a result of its adherence to a pro-communist ideology during the height of the Cold War), the determining racial factor has been evident in all post-1990 elections. The split between the two main parties in subsequent elections has been: 1992, PPP 28 seats, PNC 23 (out of 53); 1997, PPP 29 seats, PNC 22 (out of 53); 2001, PPP 34 seats, PNC 27 (out of 65); 2006, PPP 36 seats, PNC 22 (out of 65).

The nearest the PNC has come to returning to power was in 2011, when the PPP won the presidency on the basis of receiving most votes but with only 32 seats failed to gain a majority in the 65-seat parliament. APNU won 26 seats and the Alliance for Change won the remaining seven.

In addition to its demographic advantage, the PPP/C government can also point to a relatively effective economic record. According to the International Monetary Fund (IMF), Guyana has been a regional star performer in the years since the 2011 election. The Caribbean region as a whole suffered a severe recession in 2011 (-3.6% according to the United Nations Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean - Eclac) and was only growing by 1.9% in 2014. The IMF figures show Guyana growing by 5.44% in 2011, 4.82% in 2012, 5.22% in 2013, and by 3.32% in 2014 (or 4.5% by Eclac’s estimate).

Less positively for the PPP/C, its standing ahead of the present electoral contest has not been helped by the president’s decision to prorogue parliament in November (to dodge a no-confidence motion) and then to delay announcing his intentions for holding an election. A prorogation, as opposed to a dissolution, could have been maintained for six months and possibly repeated. This prevarication led to international criticism, including from the British High Commissioner to Guyana, Andrew Ayre, who announced that the Commonwealth was considering sanctions against the government and a reduction in financial aid on the grounds that the prorogation was “a clear breach of the Commonwealth charter and breach of Guyana’s constitution”.

The criticism from Britain was easily dismissed by the PPP/C, which said that Guyana had gained independence from the UK in 1966 and no longer has “to listen to what Britain says”. Less easily dismissed was the criticism from the European Union, which announced that it was suspending some budget assistance to Guyana “until all eligibility criteria, inter alia budget oversight, are satisfactorily addressed”.

The other factor that could help the five-party APNU is the electoral pact with AFC, although there is some concern among PNC supporters that the AFC has been given too much in the pre-election agreement. The AFC controlled 21% (7) of the total of 33 opposition seats (26 held by APNU) in the outgoing parliament, but it has been guaranteed 40% of the cabinet posts should the APNU-AFC combination win power.

APNU is made up of PNC Reform (PNCR), the Working Peoples’ Alliance (WPA), the National Front Alliance (NFA), the Guyana Action Party (GPA), and the Justice for All Party (JFAP). The AFC has also secured the opposition’s slot for prime minister (Moses Nagamatoo) and two vice-presidential posts. APNU-AFC are to contest the election with a single list of candidates.

APNU’s presidential candidate is PNC leader David Granger, and according to the alliance agreement, should APNU-AFC win the election he will hand over significant additional powers to the prime minister, including the right to chair cabinet meetings and control over domestic national affairs. The president will be head of state and government as well as commander-in-chief. He will also have responsibility for foreign affairs, international relations, national security policy, and the joint intelligence committee.

The latest opinion polls, however, suggest that the APNU-AFC alliance still has more to do to persuade the electorate. According to a poll in early March conducted by the North American Caribbean Teachers Association (Nacta), voters are still predominantly divided along racial lines. Respondents are closely divided on who will win, with a three-way split between those who believe the PPP/C will win, those who see APNU/AFC winning, and those who say it is too close to call. However, delving a bit more deeply, the poll found that 51% say they are better off under the PPP/C administration. Worryingly for the opposition, there seems to be quite a high level of negativity among AFC supporters about the electoral pact with APNU.

The PPP/C’s clear strategy is to paint the opposition as a destructive influence. At the launch of its campaign on 8 March, President Ramotar said of the opposition and its control over parliament in the past term that it was never patriotic or interested in the development of Guyana. He said: “I had narrow-minded people who seem to believe that they can make things bad in our country and drive us back to the time when we had to line up for a quarter pint of oil … in the hope that it will change their political fortune. That is what I had to deal with over the last three years.”

The president added: “Not one day did they use their one-seat majority to say ‘Donald Ramotar, build more roads in Berbice, build more schools for our people, build more hospitals for our people, not one single day. Instead, they used the one-seat majority to cut $89 billion from our budget, $89 billion that could have gone to develop the people of our country, and I tried, my friends, I really tried.”

The PPP/C’s candidate for prime minister is career diplomat Elisabeth Harper. Harper, 57, is the director-general of the ministry of foreign affairs. Introducing her as his running mate, Ramotar described Harper as “a consummate public servant” who has “for many years labored in the ravines of international diplomacy in service of our country and people”.

• “While the PNC held power from 1964 to 1992 (partly as a result of a split in the PPP in 1955 and partly as a result of its adherence to a pro-communist ideology during the height of the Cold War), the determining racial factor has been evident in all post-1990 elections. The split between the two main parties in subsequent elections has been: 1992, PPP 28 seats, PNC 23 (out of 53); 1997, PPP 29 seats, PNC 22 (out of 53); 2001, PPP 34 seats, PNC 27 (out of 65); 2006, PPP 36 seats, PNC 22 (out of 65).”

• “APNU’s presidential candidate is PNC leader David Granger, and according to the alliance agreement, should APNU-AFC win the election he will hand over significant additional powers to the prime minister, including the right to chair cabinet meetings and control over domestic national affairs. The president will be head of state and government as well as commander-in-chief. He will also have responsibility for foreign affairs, international relations, national security policy, and the joint intelligence committee.”