Caribbean & Central America - July 2015 (ISSN 1741-4458)

President Juan Carlos Varela and his Partido Panameñista (PPA)-led El Pueblo Primero (EPP) coalition government marked its one year anniversary in office this month. Predictably President Varela’s balance sheet presented to congress on 1 July emphasised his government’s efforts to tackle corruption, which have made headlines for its investigations into the previous administration led by Ricardo Martinelli (2009-2014) – the most notable result of which is an unprecedented probe into the former president. Yet while corruption remains very much in the public eye, the most recent Dichter & Neira poll published on 16 June showed that security remains the chief public concern, despite the fact that the Varela government recently boasted a drop in homicides.

The Dichter & Neira poll – which also gave Varela a respectable 63% approval rating – showed that only 36% of the 1,200 respondents believe that the problems of violence will improve with this government – as compared with 64% who said as much when Varela took office.

On 23 June however the interior ministry issued a press release claiming that 235 homicides were registered between January-14 June, 74 cases less than those registered over the same period the previous year, according to the national system of criminal statistics (Siec). According to the Siec statistics, the provinces registering the highest homicide rates were: Panamá (127); Panamá Oeste (34); Chiriquí (21); Colón (20) and Coclé (11). In his balance sheet, Varela directly attributes the reduction in homicides to the impact of his government scheme, ‘Barrios Seguros’ (‘safe neighbourhoods’), which offers job training and an amnesty to gang members who surrender their weapons and cut their ties with organised crime.

According to the 23 June interior ministry press release, 29 homicide cases have been linked to gang activity so far this year, down from 68 in 2014. The same report claims that 4,187 youths at risk had joined ‘Barrios Seguros’ and that if this progress continued, by the end of the year the country’s homicide rate could roughly equal the 9 per 100,000 inhabitants registered in neighbouring Costa Rica and Nicaragua – down from the current 15 per 100,000 reported for Panama. In March Nahaniel Murgas, the head of the Fiscalía Contra el Crimen Organizado (FCCO; office of the prosecutor for organised crime) reported that, after having disbanded 12 gangs in 2014, the current number of active gangs is estimated at 204. In April Attorney General (AG) Kenia Purcell announced the establishment of a special anti-gang office of the public prosecution service, to “ease the congestion” burdening the broader organised crime office.

Other sources like the US State Department’s Overseas Security Advisory Council (OSAC) would appear to agree with the government’s claims regarding a drop in homicides albeit with some reservations. The most recent OSAC report (published in March) notes that “according to statistics derived from Panamanian National Police reporting (Policia Nacional de Panama – PNP), the homicide rate fell from 666 in 2013 to 519 in 2014”. Yet the same report suggests that “crime statistics reflected in PNP source documents may have been under-reported in 2014 due to the phased roll out of a new reporting system that may not have captured monthly reports from earlier in the year. It is estimated that actual crime rates may be 15-20 percent higher than reported. The Ministry of Public Security lists a total of 8,748 reported thefts in 2013. The 2014 number was not available at the time of this writing but may have increased. Both unofficial and anecdotal crime reporting indicate an upward trend despite significant PNP efforts at combatting crime”.

End of PPA-PRD alliance?

The same day that President Varela presented his balance sheet, the 71-member unicameral national legislature elected Rubén de León, a deputy for the opposition Partido Revolucionario Democrático (PRD), as its new president for 2015-2016, replacing Adolfo Valderrama of the PPA. De León, who received 39 votes, defeated his only other competitor, Crispiano Adames (PRD) who took 31. The transfer of the national assembly’s presidency to the PRD from the PPA was in line with a legislative pact sealed by the PPA (which has just 16 deputies) and the PRD (which has 26 deputies) when Varela assumed office. However, the election of De León – who received the backing of the PPA – was a victory for the dissident PRD faction. PRD party president, Benicio Robinson – who has since pronounced the PRD-PPA pact over – had backed Adames.

• Drug seizures

According to the most recent US State Department International Narcotics Control Strategy Report (INCSR), released in March, Panama reported seizing 35.1 tonnes (t) of cocaine in 2014, largely in cooperation with US law enforcement. This includes cocaine captured by Panamanian authorities, but does not include the 3.9t of cocaine seized by the US Coast Guard (USCG) in or near Panamanian territorial waters, or cocaine jettisoned by traffickers under pursuit and not recovered. The same report notes that Panama’s cocaine seizures fell by14% in 2014 on the previous year “in concert with a 54 percent decline in reported maritime incidents transiting in the vicinity of Panamanian territorial waters. The decline in maritime cases in the vicinity of Panama coincides with an overall decline in flow, first noted in 2013. This may reflect a shifting in traffickers’ routes away from littoral waters”.