Weekly Report - 13 January 2004

GROWTH | Clashing outlooks. Mexico's growth outlook is `the best for years', according to Everardo Elizondo, deputy governor of the central bank. The reason for his optimism: `The recovery of the US is already a fact, and the most recent indicators we have show that things are doing better than we had assumed.' He provides an example: November exports of manufactures were up 2%, and those of the maquila (assembly) sector, 4% (in both cases, year-on-year). The central bank's growth forecast for this year is 3.5%.

Imef, the institute of finance executives, is much less optimistic. It reckons that growth in 2003 only reached 1.1%, and that this year it will be about 2.5%. This is the lowest prediction so far. The government published a growth assumption of 3.1% in its document on economic policy criteria for this year.

Data just released show that economic activity last October was running 0.5% higher than a year earlier, with manufacturing down 2.4% and agriculture down 6.9% (the latter largely due to adverse weather conditions).

TOURISM | Revenues hit new record. With arrivals totalling 19m and hotel occupancy up 2%, Mexico's revenues from tourism last year reached a record US$9.3bn. Early reports of activity during the year-end season (23 December-3 January) indicate a good start to 2004. Hotel occupancy rates were high, reaching 93% in the Caribbean resorts of Cancún and the Riviera Maya and 92% in Manzanillo, on the Pacific coast.

EMPLOYMENT | Federal government sheds jobs. President Vicente Fox has announced that the federal government will axe 50,000 jobs this year. This will raise to 200,000 the number of federal jobs lost since the beginning of his administration. 

AGRICULTURE | Output increases across the board. Mexico's agricultural production has been increasing since the Fox administration took office in 2000, according to agriculture minister Javier Usabiaga. The rises have taken place across the board: 15.2% in fruit, 8.1% in grains, 4.4% in fishing, 4.1% in livestock. The comparisons are with the previous three-year period, 1998-2000.