Caribbean & Central America - October 2015 (ISSN 1741-4458)

A wide-ranging opinion poll carried out by the Centro de Investigación y Estudios Políticos (CIEP) of the Universidad de Costa Rica (UCR) in August and September found Costa Ricans increasingly pessimistic about the country’s future. Over 60% of respondents said the country was on a bad or very bad trajectory; a similar percentage rejected the government of Luis Guillermo Solís. Fears over the state of the country’s economy are on the rise: around 70% think the scenario is bad or very bad, with unemployment the chief concern. Amid the gloom, however, there are some positive points for the government, including broad support for fiscal reform, as long as it is accompanied by a crackdown on tax evasion.

The telephone survey of 800 people was carried out between 10 August and 3 September. Over 80% of respondents said that their main source of information was the television news. Among the main problems cited, 29.4% mentioned unemployment, followed by the country’s high cost of living (18.3%) and the poor performance of the government (16.5%). Interestingly insecurity, a rising problem in recent years, was some way behind in the list of overall concerns, with only 9.4% citing it as their main worry.

There has been a sharp spike in the number of Costa Ricans who feel worried about the country’s economic prospects. From April 2013 to April of this year, the number of those who believed Costa Rica’s economic situation is bad remained at around 40%. In the most recent survey, however, that number has risen to 48.6%. The number of those who describe the situation as “very bad” also rose, from 19.9% in April to 23.3% now. A majority (55%) believe the country’s economic situation is worse than it was one year ago.

In terms of the country’s institutions, the UCR poll found that the UCR was the Costa Rica’s most valued. Other public universities also fared well, as did the Judicial Investigation Department (OIJ), a branch of the country’s supreme court. The government languished near the bottom of the table, beaten only by the low opinion respondents have of Costa Rica’s legislative assembly.

In contrast to the overall assessment of the Solís administration, the government’s handling of foreign affairs was broadly supported. Just over 48% of those surveyed thought the administration was doing a good job, versus just 15.1% who thought it was doing badly. Opinion was much more evenly divided on the government’s handling of its permanently difficult relations with its northern neighbour, Nicaragua. While 27.3% thought it was doing a good job; 30.4% disapproved. Those who disagree with the government’s approach want to take a more aggressive tack with Nicaragua over its border disputes. Those who approve endorse the Solís administration’s more diplomatic tactics and use of international bodies, such as the International Court of Justice in The Hague.

The government is in the midst of attempting to push through a tax reform in order to try to tackle the country’s widening fiscal deficit. But the opposition-dominated congress is unwilling to back any tax rises without significant spending cuts. The survey, however, showed broad public support for tax reform, providing it coincided with an effort to crackdown on tax evasion. In that scenario, 64% of respondents would approve of tax reform. A more progressive tax system, one in which those who earn the most bear the most of the tax burden, was supported by 74.4%. Close to 90% of those questioned would also back the tax reform if it resulted in improved public services.

• Same-sex marriage sidelined

The government of Luis Guillermo Solís was obliged to sideline a legislative project to legalise gay marriage due to the expiry of the bill’s legal time-frame. The technical obstacle allowed the government to avoid implementing an unpopular measure: the UCR survey found that over 60% of Costa Ricans disapprove of same-sex marriage, while 34% endorsed the idea.