Caribbean & Central America - August 2016 (ISSN 1741-4458)

In the May 2012 general election, the ruling Free National Movement (FNM), led by then-prime minister Hubert Ingraham, was beaten by the opposition Progressive Liberal Party (PLP) led by the current prime minister, Perry Christie. It was a thrashing, with the PLP winning 29 seats to nine for the FNM. But since its victory, the PLP has found it hard to deliver on its electoral promises of a stronger economy and reduced unemployment, and it should be ripe for the taking - except that the FNM is riven by in-fighting and looks far from ready for an election which could be called at any time.

In 2012, the year in which the PLP came to power, GDP growth was 3.1% and unemployment 14.4%. There then followed three years of zero or negative growth, with 0.0% growth recorded in 2013 and contractions of -0.5% in 2014 and -1.7% in 2015. For 2016, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) is projecting growth of 0.5%. Unemployment peaked at 15.8% in 2013 before falling to 13.4% in 2015, but the IMF is projecting another spike of 15.6% this year, with the planned opening and then stalling of the Baha Mar megaresort blamed for the roller-coaster ride.

On the face of it, all this should provide the FNM with a good shot at returning to power after just one term in opposition, but there has been bitter in-fighting amid attempts by Long Island MP Loretta Butler-Turner and five other MPs to oust leader Hubert Minnis (who replaced Ingraham after the 2012 defeat). In an attempt to clear the air and to prepare the party for the upcoming contest, the party’s convention was brought forward from November to July.

The three-day convention duly opened on 27 July in the full expectation that a vote would be taken on the leadership. But then, on the third day of the convention, Butler-Turner and her proposed deputy, Dr Duane Sands, withdrew their challenge, and this was followed swiftly by a conciliatory statement by Minnis. He said he was offering “the olive branch once again to our sister and brother” and that he hoped “they will accept our offer to continue to be a valuable part of this leadership team”. Minnis was reported to have offered Butler-Turner the post of leader of opposition business in the House of Assembly, a prominent role in the FNM’s general election campaign, and a senior position in the cabinet should the FNM win the election.

But that was very far from the end of the matter. Four days later, on 2 August, Butler-Turner suddenly declared that her support was “not for sale”. She declared: “There are a lot of offers on the table and I want to state emphatically…that Loretta Butler stands on principle and on conviction. I am not a pawn that can be bought and sold.” The next day she repeated the statement, saying: “I am not for sale and if in fact the leadership of this party feels that they are so secure in their win, then why is it so important to offer me gifts?”

This all seemed very categoric, and not at all helpful to the FNM’s cause. But then came one more dramatic U-turn. On 7 August, the erstwhile challenger for the FNM’s leadership issued a press statement saying: “Those of us who offer for public service must acknowledge error, learn from our mistakes and then set out to become better public servants. In this spirit, I take account of public criticism and hope that any errors of mine will be forgiven. My commitment to the common good of our country and to the greater good of the Bahamian people and the FNM remains unshakeable.” She also confirmed that she would accept re-nomination as the candidate for Long Island, but there was no mention of her attitude towards, or the current status of, the other offers made by Minnis immediately after she had withdrawn her leadership challenge.