Caribbean & Central America - September 2016 (ISSN 1741-4458)

*** GUYANA OIL TO FLOW FROM 2020. ExxonMobil, which has made two large oil discoveries in Guyana’s territorial waters, has said that it hopes to be producing 100,000 barrels of oil per day from 2020. According to the US oil company, the oil is of good quality, “not sour”. In preparation, the government of Guyana has said that it is drawing up plans to develop an onshore facility to maximise the benefits from the windfall. The location for the onshore facility has not yet been identified, but it is thought that the development will include a shipyard, port facilities, and support services for the operator. The government has also announced its intention to establish a Sovereign Wealth Fund to manage the revenue.

*** IMF SAYS BARBADOS ECONOMY HAS “TURNED THE CORNER”. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) concluded its latest Article IV consultation with Barbados on 22 August. It reported that “the economy appears to have turned the corner with activity picking up”. GDP growth in 2015 was a just-positive 0.8%, but this included a 14% surge in all-important tourism arrivals. Unemployment fell to 11.3%.

However, the IMF noted that the fiscal situation “remains challenging despite ongoing government adjustment efforts”, with the Fiscal Year 2015/16 budget deficit coming in at 7% of GDP, which was “broadly unchanged” on the previous year. With this in mind, the report stressed that “continued fiscal adjustment and public sector reforms are necessary to bring public debt on a downward path”. Finally, the IMF called for “a comprehensive growth strategy…to lift the country’s long-term competitiveness in the key tourism sectors”.

*** BELIZE ECONOMY STILL CONTRACTING. The latest official data shows that the Belize economy contracted by 1.5% in the second quarter of 2016 compared with the same period in 2015. For the first six months of 2016 there was a record 26% decline in the primary sector, including in sugar, crude oil, bananas, and marine products. The main bright spot in the second quarter was the services sector, which grew by 3.8%, boosted by a 13% growth in tourism.

*** ANTIGUA SET TO REJECT CCJ. The government of Antigua & Barbuda may move the proposed referendum on whether to end appeals to the UK’s Privy Council and to accede to the Caribbean Court of Justice (CCJ) to a date in early 2017. A recent opinion poll conducted by the Free and Fair Election League indicated that 62.9% of respondents were in favour of maintaining the current arrangements with the Privy Council, with only 37% opting for a change to the CCJ.

*** CONSTITUTIONAL REFERENDUM IN GRENADA. Grenada is to hold a referendum on constitutional change on 27 October. The electorate will be asked to approve seven bills to change the constitution covering: adherence to the Caribbean Court of Justice (CCJ) as the country’s final court of appeal and a change in the oath of allegiance for officials from the Queen to the state of Grenada; the setting up of an Elections and Boundaries Commission; a requirement to ensure there is always an official Leader of the Opposition in parliament even if the ruling party wins all seats in an election; fixed term parliaments; changing the name of the state from ‘Grenada’ to ‘Grenada, Carriacou and Petite Martinique’; a bill of Rights and Freedoms; and the institution of a three-term limit for prime ministers.

Both houses of parliament have approved the bills, which now require a two- thirds majority to be endorsed by the electorate on 27 October.