Caribbean & Central America - October 2016 (ISSN 1741-4458)

With less than a month until the 6 November general elections, President Daniel Ortega and the ruling Frente Sandinista de Liberación Nacional (FSLN) are poised for another re-election. Amid continued democracy concerns such as Ortega’s refusal to invite reputable international electoral observers and various questionable rulings by the supreme justice court (CSJ) and electoral authorities (CSE) [RC-16-07], the withdrawal from the race of Pedro Reyes, the presidential candidate for the main opposition Partido Liberal Independiente (PLI), illustrates the latest sign of crisis afflicting Ortega’s competitors.

Announced on 19 September, the decision by Reyes – who in June was controversially awarded the PLI presidency by the supreme court (CSJ) from longtime Ortega opponent Eduardo Montealegre [RC-16-06] – was attributed in part to financial issues. Five days earlier, the local media had cited Luis Rivas Anduray, the general manager of a local bank, Banco de la Producción (Banpro), as saying that a PLI request for a loan had been rejected, amid doubts as to how it was to be paid back. On 20 September, José del Carmen Alvarado Ruíz, (a dentist and long-time PLI member) was then named as the party’s new presidential candidate although he similarly stands little chance against Ortega (see sidebar).

This is not the only indication of the ongoing difficulties afflicting the opposition. On 2 September, Montealegre, who was coordinator of the Coalición Nacional por la Democracia (CND) coalition of opposition parties, made headlines with the announcement that he was retiring from politics. He failed to give details for his decision but the local media suggested the move could be due to the possibility of renewed legal action relating to an alleged libel case brought by an economist, Néstor Avendaño, over the collapse in 2000 of a local bank, Banco del Café. Avendaño was one of its board members. With the CND apparently in tatters, on 5 September, Kitty Monterrey, a Montealegre ally, announced the launch of a political movement, Ciudadanos por la Libertad (CxL) comprising some but not all of the CND’s former members. CxL includes groups like Resistencia Nicaragüense, Cruzada Liberal por la Democracia, Partido Nueva Alianza Cristiana, and the Movimiento Socialcristiano, but excludes others like the dissident Sandinista Movimiento Renovador Sandinista (MRS).

US pressure

With the US government having expressed various concerns about the state of democracy ahead of the elections [RC-16-06], on 21 September, the US House of Representatives unanimously approved a bill known as the ‘Nicaraguan Investment Conditionality Act (NICA) of 2016’. The bill, which is currently being discussed by the US Senate, would prevent the Ortega administration from accessing international financing until reforms are implemented that “promote democracy, strengthen the rule of law, respect human rights, and until Nicaragua holds free, fair and transparent elections overseen by electoral observers”.

A 21 September press release by Representative Ileana Ros-Lehtinen (R-FL) who, along with Representative Albio Sires (D-NJ), tabled the bill, notes that, “this bill is aimed at holding Ortega and his regime accountable for violating human rights and manipulating the electoral process for his own political gain. In addition, the NICA Act directs the [US] Department of State to issue a report on how Nicaraguan regime officials in the Supreme Electoral Council, the National Assembly, or the judicial systems are directly involved in acts of public corruption and human rights violations”.

While Roberto Sansón Caldera, the president of the US-Nicaragua chamber of commerce, described the move as “lamentable”, the FSLN government rejected it “as a violation of international law and the United Nations Charter”.

• Latest survey

The latest (August 2016) survey by pollster M&R Consultores, released on 12 September, shows overwhelming support for the Frente Sandinista de Liberación Nacional (FSLN). The survey showed that 65.7% of the 2,000 respondents intend to vote for the FSLN on 6 November, up from 62.8% in July. In second place, as previously, was the number of respondents unwilling to disclose their voting intention (25.6%, down from 26.8% in July). Far behind with 4.4% is the Partido Liberal Constitucionalista (PLC) of disgraced former president Arnoldo Alemán (1997-2002), followed by the Partido Liberal Independiente (PLI), on 2.2%.