Caribbean & Central America - November 2016 (ISSN 1741-4458)

President Juan Orlando Hernández must decide by 11 November whether he will seek re-election. The ruling Partido Nacional (PN) is keen to hang onto office, but amid ongoing scandals centred on the infiltration of Honduran politics by dubious elements, the US government is sounding less supportive, suggesting a loss of faith in the current administration.

“It’s up to the Honduran people to determine their political future through their democratic institutions and processes. I think that in general, rules of the democratic process such as term limits should not be modified for the immediate benefit of the incumbent”, said Mark Toner, US State Department spokesman, in the 7 November daily press briefing.

The previous day, before a rally of PN supporters gathered at the Choci Sosa stadium in Tegucigalpa, Hernández said that he would reveal his decision before the registration deadline of 11 November. Hernández had first launched his presidential bid in the same venue four years earlier and the PN, which had bussed in thousands of supporters in expectation of a repeat announcement, was disappointed. While trumpeting the social, economic and security achievements of his government and calling for another four years in office for the PN, Hernández remained coy. He reminded the PN that the party had once gathered over 1.25m signatures to submit to the national legislature asking it to put limits on presidential election. “Today I call on deputies to act in the best interests of the country, that they look to other countries that put limits on re-election, but that no-one undermine the sacred right of every citizen to decide who to elect and who not to elect to the presidency”. “In the next five years”, he continued, “a nation of peace and tranquillity will be consolidated, a prosperous nation, a nation with opportunity for all and a socially-just Honduras, a Honduras that our children deserve”.

PN supporters chanting ‘re-election’ seemed to take that as a positive declaration of intent, but in reality it was ambiguous. Notably, the PN has, with minimal notice, submitted to congress enabling legislation to implement the controversial April supreme court ruling to remove the constitutional ban on re-election. The enabling legislation needs a qualified majority of 86/128 to pass. The PN lacks a majority, but the opposition has voiced concerns about ‘the ting-a-ling’ (i.e., the payment of bribes). In its public statements, the Honduran opposition remains vehemently against re-election. On 5 November, the day before the president’s scheduled appearance at the PN rally, Libertad y Refundación (Libre), the radical left-wing party led by the ousted former president Manuel Zelaya (2006-2009), issued a statement reiterating its rejection of re-election.

In this context, the fact that the US government has tacitly hinted that any enabling legislation might better allow for re-election from 2021 only, rather than immediately in 2017, or that consecutive re-election not be contemplated in the reform at all, appears a rather important comment.

The State Department intervention also comes after Honduran media reported in early October that US authorities were investigating military and police officers, along with members of the judiciary and some three dozen politicians from municipal to cabinet level (potentially including the president’s own brother), in links to narco-trafficking (for full details see our sister publication, Latin American Security & Strategic Review, October 2016). At the same time, the US embassy in Tegucigalpa took the unusual move of publicly identifying eight Honduran nationals, including two members of the armed forces, who it said were under investigation for suspected ties to narco-trafficking and corruption. Hernández then revealed that an investigation was ongoing into an alleged plot by the Atlantic Cartel to assassinate the US ambassador to Honduras, James Nealon, as well as Hernández himself.

Some serious questions are therefore being raised over the ability and/or the willingness of the Hernández administration to tackle the infiltration of the state by violent criminal elements. Rogue security officers were also implicated in the murder of the leading Honduran environmentalist Berta Cáceres in March 2016 (she had regularly accused special forces of being in the pay of ‘international corporations’), while before that, another scandal implicated one of the country’s most powerful clans, the Rosenthals, in corruption and links to the drug trade. Clearly under pressure, President Hernández on 12 October tweeted that “nobody is above the law” and denied that there had been any “cover up of any crime committed in or outside of the country”. US ambassador Nealon later tweeted a supportive message, declaring that “we will continue working together to end corruption and narcotrafficking”. However, the state of play between Hernández and the US is now a matter of some speculation.

For now, Libre sticks with Xiomara

Libre held internal elections on 30 October to select party coordinators for the country’s 18 departments, as well as 298 municipal representatives; 596 delegates for the party’s national assembly; and a national youth co-ordinator. The party set up 3,570 voting tables nationwide and according to Libre spokesperson Rixi Moncada, turnout was about 239,000, exceeding expectations of 150,000.

Full results of the ballot were not released but it appears that Zelaya was ratified as ‘general coordinator’ of the party he helped found in 2011. It has also emerged that Patricia Rodas, who served as Zelaya’s foreign minister and was in exile for a time after the 2009 coup, was voted the new deputy coordinator, reportedly with 60% support. Rodas, a left-wing radical, rattled Honduran conservatives by pivoting the country away from its long-standing US alliance towards the regional radical left-wing bloc led by Venezuela. Honduras joined the Venezuela-led Alianza Bolivariana para los Pueblos de Nuestra América (Alba) in 2008 (but was withdrawn in 2009 by the interim administration that took over after Zelaya’s removal) and looked to become a Venezuelan oil client.

Libre also re-confirmed Zelaya’s wife, Xiomara Castro, as the party’s presidential nominee, but noted that she was bidding with the support of five Libre currents (or factions), known as movimientos. This belies the splits within the party over Zelaya’s dominance, which stem in part from suspicion about his ambitions.

Zelaya has vowed that if Hernández runs next year, then he too will throw his hat into the ring (with Castro apparently amenable to stepping aside for her husband). Libre, which has some nine factions, is not wholly united around the Castro ‘nomination’ – with rival presidential aspirants suspecting a pre-planned strategy to allow Zelaya to take over the slate next year once Hernández, as has been expected, is confirmed for the PN.

Notably, in the internal elections, aside from the general vote, party members were also due to be asked whether they would support a future constituent assembly (which Castro has promised if elected) and, if Hernández stands for re-election, whether they would support Zelaya to run against him. Notably, the results of that internal plebiscite have not been made public either. In any case, Zelaya is covered – if Hernández decides against a bid, Xiomara can proceed as planned. Primary elections are due in March 2017, but these are not obligatory. And Zelaya may not want Libre ‘airing its dirty laundry’ in public.

• Calls for reform

Libre and the Partido Anti Corrupción (PAC) have requested reforms to constitutional articles 51, 52 and 54 so that they can gain representation on the electoral court (Tribunal Supremo Electoral, TSE), and the national citizens’ registry (Registro Nacional de las Personas, RNP), ahead of the 2107 election cycle.

• Nasralla

Salvador Nasralla, the former TV celebrity and leader of the Partido Anti Corrupción (PAC), is expected to bid for the presidency for a second time in 2017. In 2011 he came third and polls now suggest he is a strong contender again for 2017, with 50% support, in a scenario without the incumbent Juan Orlando Hernández on the ticket.