Caribbean & Central America - July 2017 (ISSN 1741-4458)

In last month’s issue we looked at the latest budget presented on 30 May by Finance Minister Christopher Sinckler in which he called for “steely resolve” and talked about a “national call to arms” [RC-17-06]. We said that this was not the ideal message to be sending to the electorate with less than a year until the ruling Democratic Labour Party (DLP) has to go to the polls. Not surprisingly, the latest opinion polls reinforce this point.

An opinion poll published in late June by the Nation newspaper and conducted by local polling firm the Caribbean Development Research Services (Cadres) makes grim reading for Prime Minister Freundel Stuart. According to the poll, only 11% of respondents would support the DLP in a general election, with 51% saying they would support the Barbados Labour Party (BLP) led by Mia Mottley.

A massive 71% of Barbadians say they would like to see a change of government. To put this into perspective, in 2008 when there was last a change of government the percentage saying they wanted a change ahead of that election was 48%. The support for the prime minister is just 8%, compared with 52% for Mottley. Former BLP prime minister Owen Arthur (1994-2008) has 18% support.

Perhaps even starker is the almost non-existent level of support for the finance minister. Only 0.6% of respondents saw Sinckler as a desirable prime minister. However, Cadres did point out that the proximity of the poll to the budget was “clearly a factor that impacted on public opinion”.

There was no comfort for the government from the latest International Monetary Fund (IMF) assessment. In its most recent statement, released on 29 June, the IMF notes that the 400% increase in the National Social Responsibility Levy (NSRL), the introduction of a 2% levy on foreign exchange transactions, and the hike in excise tax on petrol and diesel would push inflation from 3.2% to 6.7% by the end of 2017.

On GDP growth, the IMF said: “Growth in 2017 is projected to slow to less than 1 per cent, reflecting the fiscal consolidation efforts introduced in the FY2017/18 Budget.”

Adding to the gloom, the IMF had a warning on the effects of Britain’s exit from the European Union. It said: “There are important downside risks related to the increase in domestic and global uncertainty, including the impact of the Brexit on the British pound.”

The IMF team were in Barbados from 20 June until 1 July. However, the government remains adamant that the country is not about to enter into an IMF programme.

The Barbadian electorate has a habit of awarding alternating periods of ten years in power to the country’s two main parties (although the BLP had a 14-year stretch from 1994-2008). Given that the current DLP government is reaching the end of its second consecutive term in office, and given the current state of opinion polls, it seems all but inconceivable that it will retain power when it does go to the electorate in 2018. The only interesting question seems to be by what margin it will lose power. It came to power in 2008 with a 20-10 majority, but this dropped to 16-14 in the 2013 contest.