Weekly Report - 10 February 2004

DOMINICAN REPUBLIC | Plant shutdown aggravates power crisis. Blackouts have been lasting 15 hours or more as the shutdown of generating plants aggravates the electricity shortage that has been building up over recent weeks [WR-04-04]. On 6 January the power deficit had risen to 783MW, or almost 51% of demand. The companies are shutting down their plants in demand of overdue government debts which they put at about US$400m in all. The government last week said the figures had been inflated, but started paying some arrears. It also appointed army chief José Miguel Soto Jiménez and General Pedro de Jesús Candelier (head of the traffic police) to lead a commission to inquire into the debt with generating companies and the shutdowns. The last time President Hipólito Mejí­a turned to the army to solve a non-military crisis was when he tried to talk down the dollar rate to RD$30 [WR-03-48]. Last week the rate hit RD$56.

CARIBBEAN | Tourism growth seen continuing. After recording an estimated 6% increase in tourist arrivals last year, the Caribbean Tourism Organisation (CTO) predicts that the growth will continue into this year, perhaps at a slightly lower rate (4-5%). The strongest increase in tourist flows last year were those from Canada (15%) and Europe (9%). Arrivals from the US increased by 4%. Cuba's tourism ministry reports that arrivals to the island last year reached 1.9m, up 13% on 2002. This means that Cuba is now attracting one out of every nine visitors to the Caribbean. The upturn recorded in the Caribbean contrasts with the worldwide decline of 1.2% in arrivals reported by the World Tourism Organisation (WTO).

EL SALVADOR | Growth slowing down. On the strength of partial data, the private think-tank Fusades has estimated that El Salvador's GDP growth last year was somewhere between 1.7% and 2%. Figures for the first nine months had shown a rate of 2%. What little growth there was, says Fusades, can be attributed to post-earthquake public works and a slight expansion of domestic consumption.