Caribbean & Central America - January 2018 (ISSN 1741-4458)

*** GROWTH TO PICK UP FOR SVG. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) concluded an Article IV consultation with St Vincent & the Grenadines in mid-December. The conclusion was that while growth will prove to have been relatively flat in 2017, at around 1.0%, it should pick up to 2.1% in 2018. This will be a relief after four years of flat growth, starting with 0.3% in 2014, 0.9% in 2015, and 0.8% in 2016. In the medium term, the IMF projects that “strong spillovers from the new airport, the construction of a modern port, and launching the geothermal project could support growth”.

On the fiscal front, the IMF is calling for “additional fiscal measures” in 2018 and over the medium-term “to pay arrears and put public debt on a clear downward path”. Due to some bilateral debt relief, public sector debt is expected to have declined in 2017, from 82.9% in 2016, but “to remain elevated at 77.5% of GDP”.

Another area of concern is the country’s resilience in the face of natural disasters. The IMF calls for the SVG government to “increase resources for the contingencies fund and implement initiatives to build resilience against natural disasters”. It added: “The authorities have earmarked revenue for the contingencies fund, but the resources are insufficient.”

*** NEW CARICOM CHAIRMAN TARGETS CLIMATE CHANGE. At the beginning of January, the incoming chairman of the Caribbean Community (Caricom), Haiti’s President Jovenel Moïse, said that it was the aim of the organisation to make the region “the first climate-resistant region in the world”.

The new chairman may have been shy on the details, but he was strong on vision. He said: “The absolute necessity to create a climate-smart region is clear given the effects of climate change, which have brought us droughts, mega hurricanes, heavy floods, and unusual weather patterns, all of which adversely affect our development.”

Moïse made the point that while the Caribbean suffers disproportionately from the consequences of climate change, as a region its production of greenhouse gasses “is practically nil”. That is why, he believes, outside support is not just essential but a moral imperative. He praised the goodwill and pledges from the international community at two recent global conferences in New York and Paris, and he said these pledges “give us hope that the necessary support to achieve our objective will be forthcoming”.

*** INCREASED WORKLOAD FOR CCJ. The Caribbean Court of Justice (CCJ), based in Trinidad, has reported a 20% increase in filings in the 2016/2017 judicial year, up to 25 from 20 in the previous year.

The CCJ was established in 2001 with the intention of replacing the Privy council in London as the final court of appeal for the English-speaking Caribbean. So far only Dominica, Barbados, Belize, and Guyana use the CCJ as their final court of appeal. However, the 15-member Caricom uses the CCJ to govern its Revised Treaty of Chaguaramas.

In early December, there was tension between Barbados and the CCJ over the latter’s criticism of delays in the Barbados judicial system. Prime Minister Freundel Stuart responded by saying: “Sometimes I think that Barbados is being unnecessarily slandered by some of the reports which I see.” He accused the CCJ of treating Barbados “salaciously”. Stuart recognised that there were problems, but he said that the country’s criminal justice system “is not going to function efficiently if whenever there is evidence that there is a delay…[the] country is held up to ridicule and the impression is given that the system is not working”.