Weekly Report - 17 February 2004
PERU: Toledo plays reshuffle for the fifth time
On 15 February, before hearing the names of the new cabinet expected to rescue the Toledo government from its latest crisis, Peruvians were able to read the findings of a survey conducted by the polling firm Apoyo. It showed 73% of respondents convinced that popular pressure would force Toledo to resign, and the President's approval rating down to 7%. The announcement of the new cabinet, billed as `mainly independent', did little to dispel that mood.
It was meant to be a gabinete conversado, a `talked-over' cabinet that would attract the approval of all sectors. The talking, however, did not include all sectors. The biggest opposition party, the Partido Aprista Peruano (PAP), did not take part at all. The leader of another, Lourdes Flores of Unidad Nacional (UN), decided not to take part personally upon realising that Toledo had no intention of taking up her suggestion that he should `step aside' or `move upstairs', concentrating on the role of head of state and leaving the running of the government to the prime minister. That left any consensus lopsided.
[The prime ministerial position in Peru, as in Argentina, is not analogous to that of a parliamentary system. It was designed to provide a `fuse' should pressure mount for a change, shielding the President. The prime ministerial functions and powers, though substantial on paper, are normally overridden by the strong presidentialist tradition. It is the President who appoints and removes the prime ministers.]
Gaining support through spin
That Toledo was determined to hang on to his job was illustrated by his desperate efforts last week to secure institutional support at home and abroad. At home, he elicited the backing of 11 of the 25 regional presidents (those of Callao, Apurímac, Cuzco, Ucayali, Madre de Dios, Huancavelica, Puno, Junín, Pasco, Lambayeque and Loreto), embodied in a statement that reaffirmed their respect for `the constitutional term of office' and `constitutional order'. He also persuaded the umbrella labour organisation Confederación General de Trabajadores del Perú (CGTP) to proclaim its opposition to `anticipated presidential elections or any other precipitate outcome'.
Abroad, he got the Rio Group* to declare its `firm support for President Alejandro Toledo in his efforts to consolidate Peru's democratic institutional process' and `reaffirm that the stability of democratic processes in the region is a shared objective.'
He also got the permanent council of the OAS to issue a declaration of `full and determined backing' for Toledo in view of `the real crisis, lack of credibility and destabilising acts' that he was facing. OAS secretary-general César Gaviria added to this that Toledo's efforts were `perfectly attuned' with the Inter-American Democratic Charter [which commits the OAS to act against attempts to breach the constitutional order].
One of the arguments deployed by Toledo's government was that former President Alberto Fujimori was funding a destabilisation campaign. Peruvian intelligence chief Daniel Mora has been saying that a group of `mafiosos' linked to Fujimori has brought US$3m into Peru to finance the destabilisation of the Toledo government. He gave no further details, but Fujimori gave a measure of credibility to this when his press office in Lima distributed, on 13 February, a statement of his to the effect that bringing forward the general elections was `indispensable'.
Also, diplomats and government spin doctors did their best to conflate demanding the President's resignation (perfectly constitutional) with breaching the constitutional order — which another of the proposals bandied about, the celebration of early elections, might entail: the constitutional follow-up to the President's resignation would be to elevate whoever is next in the line of succession and have him complete the established term.
What has changed
The cabinet reshuffle — Toledo's fifth — involved only one major novelty: the reappointment as minister of economy & finance of Pedro-Pablo Kuczynski, who had held that position until July 2002, when he resigned due to the wave of protests against the privatisation of two power utilities [WR-02-28]. He replaces Jaime Quijandría, who has returned to his previous post of minister of mines and energy. Prime minister Ferrero has underlined that the new cabinet, as a result of the seven new appointments, is now `85% independent'. Apart from Kuczynski and the appointment of the lawyer Javier Neves as labour minister, none of the `heavyweight' ministries has been touched.
Kuczynski has already served notice that he wishes to change one of his predecessor's measures: the tax on financial transactions, brought in to finance pay increases for teachers. The others will have to cope with impending protests by farmers and transport workers, and with this week's congress of coca growers in Lima, which interior minister Fernando Rospigliosi has predicted may be used to launch a `Bolivian-style' destabilisation campaign.
*Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Costa Rica, Dominican Republic, Ecuador, El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, Mexico, Nicaragua, Paraguay, Panama, Peru, Uruguay and Venezuela.
It was meant to be a gabinete conversado, a `talked-over' cabinet that would attract the approval of all sectors. The talking, however, did not include all sectors. The biggest opposition party, the Partido Aprista Peruano (PAP), did not take part at all. The leader of another, Lourdes Flores of Unidad Nacional (UN), decided not to take part personally upon realising that Toledo had no intention of taking up her suggestion that he should `step aside' or `move upstairs', concentrating on the role of head of state and leaving the running of the government to the prime minister. That left any consensus lopsided.
[The prime ministerial position in Peru, as in Argentina, is not analogous to that of a parliamentary system. It was designed to provide a `fuse' should pressure mount for a change, shielding the President. The prime ministerial functions and powers, though substantial on paper, are normally overridden by the strong presidentialist tradition. It is the President who appoints and removes the prime ministers.]
Gaining support through spin
That Toledo was determined to hang on to his job was illustrated by his desperate efforts last week to secure institutional support at home and abroad. At home, he elicited the backing of 11 of the 25 regional presidents (those of Callao, Apurímac, Cuzco, Ucayali, Madre de Dios, Huancavelica, Puno, Junín, Pasco, Lambayeque and Loreto), embodied in a statement that reaffirmed their respect for `the constitutional term of office' and `constitutional order'. He also persuaded the umbrella labour organisation Confederación General de Trabajadores del Perú (CGTP) to proclaim its opposition to `anticipated presidential elections or any other precipitate outcome'.
Abroad, he got the Rio Group* to declare its `firm support for President Alejandro Toledo in his efforts to consolidate Peru's democratic institutional process' and `reaffirm that the stability of democratic processes in the region is a shared objective.'
He also got the permanent council of the OAS to issue a declaration of `full and determined backing' for Toledo in view of `the real crisis, lack of credibility and destabilising acts' that he was facing. OAS secretary-general César Gaviria added to this that Toledo's efforts were `perfectly attuned' with the Inter-American Democratic Charter [which commits the OAS to act against attempts to breach the constitutional order].
One of the arguments deployed by Toledo's government was that former President Alberto Fujimori was funding a destabilisation campaign. Peruvian intelligence chief Daniel Mora has been saying that a group of `mafiosos' linked to Fujimori has brought US$3m into Peru to finance the destabilisation of the Toledo government. He gave no further details, but Fujimori gave a measure of credibility to this when his press office in Lima distributed, on 13 February, a statement of his to the effect that bringing forward the general elections was `indispensable'.
Also, diplomats and government spin doctors did their best to conflate demanding the President's resignation (perfectly constitutional) with breaching the constitutional order — which another of the proposals bandied about, the celebration of early elections, might entail: the constitutional follow-up to the President's resignation would be to elevate whoever is next in the line of succession and have him complete the established term.
What has changed
The cabinet reshuffle — Toledo's fifth — involved only one major novelty: the reappointment as minister of economy & finance of Pedro-Pablo Kuczynski, who had held that position until July 2002, when he resigned due to the wave of protests against the privatisation of two power utilities [WR-02-28]. He replaces Jaime Quijandría, who has returned to his previous post of minister of mines and energy. Prime minister Ferrero has underlined that the new cabinet, as a result of the seven new appointments, is now `85% independent'. Apart from Kuczynski and the appointment of the lawyer Javier Neves as labour minister, none of the `heavyweight' ministries has been touched.
Kuczynski has already served notice that he wishes to change one of his predecessor's measures: the tax on financial transactions, brought in to finance pay increases for teachers. The others will have to cope with impending protests by farmers and transport workers, and with this week's congress of coca growers in Lima, which interior minister Fernando Rospigliosi has predicted may be used to launch a `Bolivian-style' destabilisation campaign.
*Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Costa Rica, Dominican Republic, Ecuador, El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, Mexico, Nicaragua, Paraguay, Panama, Peru, Uruguay and Venezuela.
|
Toledo's
new cabinet
|
|
Appointed
on 15 February
|
| New
appointments Economy & finance: Pedro Pablo Kuczynski Energy & mines: Jaime Quijandría* Justice: Baldo Kresalja Education: Javier Sota Health: Pilar Masetti Labour: Javier Neves Transport: José Ortiz Production: Alfonso Velásquez Confirmed End of preview - This article contains approximately 900 words Subscribers: Log in now to read the full article Not a Subscriber? Enquire Now |