Weekly Report - 17 February 2004
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC: Mejía gets his way — not (yet?) the voters
President Hipólito Mejía has had his way: he is now the sole registered presidential candidate of his Partido Revolucionario Democrático (PRD) — a party whose statutes bar standing for reelection, even in the law allows it. The question is whether it was worth the effort: the latest opinion poll shows the frontrunner, Leonel Fernández of the Partido de la Liberación Dominicana (PLD), even further ahead than before.
The poll, conducted by Penn, Schoen & Berland, shows that Fernández has increased his support from 58% last September to 65% in late January — far more than enough to sweep the floor in the first round. Mejía, on the other hand, has seen his backing decline from 20% to 13%, which has left him a poor third, after Eduardo Estrella, of the Partido Reformista Social Cristiano (PRSC), who has risen from 14% to 16%.
Though the current level of support for Fernández would preclude it, the pollsters tested reactions to two second round scenarios. Against Mejía, Fernández would win 73:16; against Estrella, 67:23.
No `ley de lemas'
The last chance Mejía's PRD rivals seemed to have to test relative strengths before the electorate, fizzled out when the chamber of deputies decided to shelve the ley de lemas (the bill authorising the fielding of several candidates per party) that had been approved by the senate. The lower chamber gave up on it after the electoral council had said it simply did not have the time to make the necessary changes to accommodate a new system.
Few doubt that Mejía will make full use of his position of power to try to catch up with and overtake Fernández. The strategic director of Fernández's campaign, Danilo Medina, while admitting that the effort is likely, dismisses its chances of succeeding: `They say that they have the government and all the money in the world to buy the votes of the poor. This is true, and they are indeed unscrupulous, but they forget that the hearts of the people are with Leonel [...] There is no possibility that they can steal victory from Leonel Fernández, because the country has never seen such a bad government as the one led by Hipólito Mejía.'
Medina has a special incentive to see his candidate through: in 2000 he was the PLD's candidate, and after being defeated by Mejía in the first round made the unusual gesture of bowing out of the run-off.
The poll, conducted by Penn, Schoen & Berland, shows that Fernández has increased his support from 58% last September to 65% in late January — far more than enough to sweep the floor in the first round. Mejía, on the other hand, has seen his backing decline from 20% to 13%, which has left him a poor third, after Eduardo Estrella, of the Partido Reformista Social Cristiano (PRSC), who has risen from 14% to 16%.
Though the current level of support for Fernández would preclude it, the pollsters tested reactions to two second round scenarios. Against Mejía, Fernández would win 73:16; against Estrella, 67:23.
No `ley de lemas'
The last chance Mejía's PRD rivals seemed to have to test relative strengths before the electorate, fizzled out when the chamber of deputies decided to shelve the ley de lemas (the bill authorising the fielding of several candidates per party) that had been approved by the senate. The lower chamber gave up on it after the electoral council had said it simply did not have the time to make the necessary changes to accommodate a new system.
Few doubt that Mejía will make full use of his position of power to try to catch up with and overtake Fernández. The strategic director of Fernández's campaign, Danilo Medina, while admitting that the effort is likely, dismisses its chances of succeeding: `They say that they have the government and all the money in the world to buy the votes of the poor. This is true, and they are indeed unscrupulous, but they forget that the hearts of the people are with Leonel [...] There is no possibility that they can steal victory from Leonel Fernández, because the country has never seen such a bad government as the one led by Hipólito Mejía.'
Medina has a special incentive to see his candidate through: in 2000 he was the PLD's candidate, and after being defeated by Mejía in the first round made the unusual gesture of bowing out of the run-off.
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