Security & Strategic Review - August 2005

Bolivia is often seen as a tinderbox, currently dampened by a 'social truce', which could be set ablaze in an instant. In that scenario Evo Morales, the indigenous coca-grower turned politician, is seen by many as the man capable of rallying the peasant masses behind the kind of destabilising campaigns that have forced two Bolivian presidents to step down in just under two years. The US government sees Morales as a client of Venezuelan President Hugo Chávez , bent on subversion. But Morales does not command the allegiance of more than part of Bolivia's array of militant social organisations. With the country fast approaching critical elections, discerning and distinguishing the various strands becomes crucial.