Weekly Report - 24 February 2004
HAITI: A plan with only one taker
The international community was expecting the political opposition to reply on 23 February to the plan already accepted `unconditionally' by President Jean-Bertrand Aristide. The reply was not forthcoming, so a 24-hour `deadline' was set. Up to the time of writing there had been no response.
The plan drawn up by Canada, France, the OAS and Caricom (see below) is largely based on the one drafted earlier by Caricom, and it has so far met the same fate: acceptance by Aristide (because it allows him to stay in his post) and rejection by the opposition (which remains adamant that any solution must begin with Aristide's departure). Indeed, the international plan differs little from the one devised by the opposition, save that the latter leaves Aristide out of the equation.
The `deadlines' issued so far are largely meaningless, because they carry no `or else' — save the one which is being dictated on the ground by the rebels. For both, the alternative is that the rebels, now led by a relatively disciplined force that has been proving highly effective, may end up taking power. That prospect is chilling to the political opposition and to outsiders, inasmuch as it seems to entail a restoration (of sorts) of the régime that unseated Aristide in 1991. Particularly galling is the presence of Louis Jodel Chamblain, former deputy leader of the Fraph, the murderous paramilitary death squads of that régime.
The problem Aristide and the opposition face is that, barring armed international intervention, there may be no force capable of stopping the insurgents — let alone disarming them as the international plan envisages. Caricom and the OAS could invoke their commitment to the defence of constitutional governments and apply sanctions to a rebel-controlled Haiti. Given the experience of the past few years, that may not prove much of a deterrent.
Guy Philippe, the rebel leader, has said he is willing to negotiate the departure of Aristide, and even downing arms if that should happen. That may be just talk, but there may soon be no alternative but to start talking to him.
The plan drawn up by Canada, France, the OAS and Caricom (see below) is largely based on the one drafted earlier by Caricom, and it has so far met the same fate: acceptance by Aristide (because it allows him to stay in his post) and rejection by the opposition (which remains adamant that any solution must begin with Aristide's departure). Indeed, the international plan differs little from the one devised by the opposition, save that the latter leaves Aristide out of the equation.
The `deadlines' issued so far are largely meaningless, because they carry no `or else' — save the one which is being dictated on the ground by the rebels. For both, the alternative is that the rebels, now led by a relatively disciplined force that has been proving highly effective, may end up taking power. That prospect is chilling to the political opposition and to outsiders, inasmuch as it seems to entail a restoration (of sorts) of the régime that unseated Aristide in 1991. Particularly galling is the presence of Louis Jodel Chamblain, former deputy leader of the Fraph, the murderous paramilitary death squads of that régime.
The problem Aristide and the opposition face is that, barring armed international intervention, there may be no force capable of stopping the insurgents — let alone disarming them as the international plan envisages. Caricom and the OAS could invoke their commitment to the defence of constitutional governments and apply sanctions to a rebel-controlled Haiti. Given the experience of the past few years, that may not prove much of a deterrent.
Guy Philippe, the rebel leader, has said he is willing to negotiate the departure of Aristide, and even downing arms if that should happen. That may be just talk, but there may soon be no alternative but to start talking to him.
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- Aristide will remain in office until the end of his term in February 2006, but his authority will be curtailed. End of preview - This article contains approximately 500 words Subscribers: Log in now to read the full article Not a Subscriber? Enquire Now |