Caribbean & Central America - May 2019

*** DECLINE IN US VISAS FOR GUYANESE. At a time when Guyana is hoping to maximise opportunities for development on the back of massive oil discoveries, interaction with the US appears to be suffering a setback through the restriction of visas to Guyanese. In 2016, just over 51,200 ‘B’ class visitor visas to the US were granted to Guyanese nationals. In 2017, the figure fell to just over 25,300. In the 12 months ending 30 September 2018, the total was 4,923. This is the lowest number of ‘non-immigrant’ visas since 2010.

*** IMF FORECASTS FALLING GROWTH FOR THE BAHAMAS. The latest forecasts from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) for The Bahamas indicate that the bounce experienced by the opening of the Baha Mar megaresort is beginning to wear off. The IMF estimates GDP growth of 2.3% in 2018 and is forecasting growth of 2.1% for 2019, falling to 1.6% in 2020 and then remaining at more or less that level for the first half of the decade. An official IMF staff mission visited The Bahamas from 1-12 April.

Unemployment has improved significantly since 2014, falling from 14.6% to 9.2% in 2018. However, further improvement will require higher growth rates than currently forecast.

*** FURTHER CONTRACTION FORECAST FOR BARBADOS. The IMF is forecasting a GDP contraction of 0.1% for 2019, with marginal growth of 0.6% likely in 2020. In 2018, Barbados was forced into a US$290m Extended Fund Facility with the IMF due to its very high debt level of 160% of GDP.

According to the IMF’s director for the Western Hemisphere, Alejandro Werner, there has been good progress. On 17 April he was quoted by Barbados Today as saying: “The bulk of public debt, which is the domestic part, has already been restructured, and negotiations with external creditors are underway. With this in process, fiscal consolidation is underway as well, and deep structural reforms also being undertaken, the economy is on a sounder footing.”

One big negative for 2019 has been the surge in murders, something that can only have an adverse impact on the tourism industry. Barbados averages around 27 murders annually, but this year there were 20 murders recorded in the first three months alone.

*** CARICOM OPPOSITION TO OAS POSITION ON VENEZUELA. A total of eight Caribbean Community (Caricom) countries have written to the Organisation of American States (OAS) protesting against the decision of the OAS Council to accept as Venezuela’s representative to the organisation the nominee of Juan Guaidó, the rival president to Nicolás Maduro. The eight countries are: Antigua & Barbuda, Barbados, Belize, Dominica, St Kitts & Nevis, St Vincent & the Grenadines, Suriname, and Trinidad & Tobago.

*** OECS PRESS FREEDOM UNDER SPOTLIGHT. The countries of the Organisation of Eastern Caribbean States (OECS) have received a wake-up call in the latest World Press Freedom Index, produced by Reporters Without Borders (RSF). The OECS has dropped from 35 out of 180 countries in 2018 to 50 in 2019. It is not clear what has changed in a year, but the general criticism is straightforward. The RSF says that the profession is under-valued (with little training) and that “many media outlets are under the direct influence of politicians, especially during elections, because officials can withdraw state advertising at any time and deprive them of income they depend on.” The report also notes that “the authorities are monitoring social networks more and more closely”. In some islands, political parties actually own or have a share in media companies.