Caribbean & Central America - December 2019

As Suriname heads into an election year, President Desi Bouterse has described his sentencing for 20 years imprisonment for murder as a “political game”. The sentence was pronounced on 29 November, while the president was away on an official visit to China, for the murder in 1982 of 15 opponents of his military dictatorship that began with the February 1980 coup d’état.

Bouterse’s response to the news when he landed back in Suriname on 1 December was to say: “The political game is played openly, so it was clear what was going to happen. We will stay within the law and regulations. Politics needs to be answered with politics.” It is not entirely clear what he meant by this, but he seems certain to appeal the verdict. There is then the question of whether he will go on to contest the May 2020 general election.

Opposition leaders are calling on him to step down, and he has said he will consult with leaders of his Nationale Democratische Partij (NDP). At 74, the president is not in the best of health, which might also point towards reducing his commitments, but equally it would seem likely that his legal difficulties might prompt him to hold onto as much power as he can for as long as he can.

Apart from Bouterse’s personal issues, the elections are more than usually important given that Suriname could be on the cusp of an oil boom, hoping to make discoveries to match those already made in neighbouring Guyana.

Optimism about imminent discoveries has dissipated somewhat since Rudolf Elias, the CEO of state-owned oil company Staatsolie, made the rash – and subsequently unfounded – prediction on 15 August that the company would make its first significant oil discovery within three weeks. Nevertheless, there is a strong likelihood that oil will soon be discovered in significant quantities, and both sides of the political divide wish to be in control of the newfound wealth.

The NDP has the advantage of incumbency, and despite the country’s poor fiscal position it has stepped up government spending ahead of the election, especially in deprived areas. The question is whether this will be enough, particularly given Bouterse legal difficulties.

Twenty-five political parties participated in the 2015 elections. The NDP won a majority in the National Assembly with 26 seats of the 51 seats on offer. The opposition V7 coalition won 18 seats. V7 initially was formed by seven parties, of which four had participated in the Nieuwe Front voor Democratie en Ontwikkeling (NF) during the 2010 elections: the Vooruitstrevende Hervormings Partij (VHP), the Nationale Partij Suriname (NPS), the Surinaamse Partij van de Arbeid (SPA), and the Democratisch Alternatief '91 (DA91).

These four parties were joined by the Pertjajah Luhur (PL), the Broederschap en Eenheid in de Politiek (BEP), and a party which was formerly known as KTPI. However, before the elections took place, KTPI decided to participate in the A-Combination alliance. The presidential candidate for V7 was Chandrikapersad Santokhi (leader of the VHP).

Five seats went to A-Combination, made up of the Algemene Bevrijdings- en Ontwikkelingspartij (ABOP) of former rebel leader Ronnie Brunswijk, KTPI, and the Partij voor Democratie en Ontwikkeling (PDO). Partij voor Democratie en Ontwikkeling in Eenheid (DOE) got one seat; the Progressieve Arbeiders en Landbouwers Unie (PALU) also won one seat.

Bouterse’s NDP is expected to lose some of its 26 seats. The president reportedly sees the VHP, with eight seats in parliament, and ABOP, with five seats, as the most potent challengers. The VHP, led by Santokhi, is Hindu-oriented, but it is trying to widen its appeal; ABOP has a strong Maroon identity.

The NPS, the former powerhouse of Surinamese politics, appears to be making some recovery, although it is not expected to advance far beyond the three seats it currently holds. The PL, with its strong Indonesian identity, might lose some of the six seats it won at the last election. In recent months the VHP has been making a push for support in the interior which previously has been the exclusive domain of African-Surinamese parties. Interestingly given recent news, VHP leader Chan Santokhi is a former police commissioner who led the investigation into the 1982 murders for which Bouterse now faces a 20-year jail sentence.

Reliable opinion polls are few and far between, but several surveys from earlier in 2019 did point towards a decline in popularity for the NDP.

Courting China

Meanwhile, Bouterse has been in China, from 27-30 November, which in itself is interesting as earlier in the year he cancelled several overseas visits most likely because of fears over his vulnerability to arrest on an international arrest warrant (there is always the danger that an international flight may be diverted to a hostile jurisdiction), and/or because of weak health. A planned state visit to India in June was cancelled, as were planned visits to Turkey, Russia, and Serbia. He was also absent from a Caricom Heads of Government meeting in St Lucia at the beginning of July. While in Beijing, Bouterse signed an agreement upgrading the Suriname-China relationship “to a strategic partnership of cooperation”.