Caribbean & Central America - December 2019

The political atmosphere in Guyana has calmed somewhat since President David Granger announced 2 March as election day. The president’s long prevarication, and legal wrangling, over holding the election following the 21 December 2018 vote of no confidence had made Guyana’s politics even more rancorous than normal. Officially, an election should have been held within 90 days of passing of the no confidence motion. However, it is widely expected that the slightly calmer atmosphere will last only until the New Year after which both main parties are expected to turn up the heat once again.

One development that has slightly changed the pre-election atmospherics was the surprise announcement on 12 November that Tullow Oil’s discovery in its two Orinduik wells was heavy oil, high in sulphur, and only borderline commercial. No one is suggesting for a moment that Guyana’s oil-rich prospects have been significantly diminished, but the reminder that oil exploration is never risk free may take some of the sting out of the opposition’s claims that ExxonMobil’s contracts were too generous and should be renegotiated.

Another factor that should be playing in favour of President Granger and his A Partnership for National Unity (Apnu)-Alliance for Change (AFC) coalition is that the president seems to have been restored to full health following his brush with cancer. He has been declared free of non-Hodgkin’s lymphoma for which he has been receiving treatment in Cuba.

On the other hand, intra-coalition relations have been tense, with the AFC saying that it would be prepared to contest the general election on its own if its demands weren’t met. Apnu has responded to what it saw as an empty threat (particularly given AFC’s poor performance in the recent local elections) by sticking to its offer of a 70/30 split on parliamentary seats, down from the 60/40 split at the last election.

Doubts also persist about the suitability of AFC leader Khemraj Ramjattan as the coalition’s candidate to be prime minister. Among the doubters are said to be the AFC’s chairman Raphael Trotman.

One area in which the government is being attacked is over its alleged policy of cutting government-paid advertising in the Stabroek News because of unhappiness over its coverage. A Barbados newspaper, the Sunday Sun, claimed in an editorial in November that “for more than three months, the Stabroek News has received virtually zero advertising from government agencies in sharp contrast to other newspapers”. The Sunday Sun is owned by the Trinidad-based One Caribbean Media (OCM) which also has a stake in Stabroek News.

This has been denied by the government’s director of public information, Imran Khan, who described the allegations as “wholly false”. The government says that between 1 January and 19 September, Stabroek News received 30% of government advertising in newspapers, which was second only to Kaieteur News which is considered to be Guyana’s premier newspaper.

Whatever the exact truth over this matter, the government is certainly making use of the power of incumbency as the election nears. In mid-November, President Granger announced generous salary increases for public servants, with 9% for lower tiers and some very large increases in allowances. Public servants are a key constituency for the governing coalition.