Caribbean & Central America - May 2020

Atlantic basin seasonal forecasts warn that warm sea surface temperatures and atypical atmospheric conditions will likely give rise to above-average hurricane activity in the Caribbean in 2020.

An outlook report released on 16 April by the Weather Company, a subsidiary of the International Business Machines corporation (IBM), predicts a potentially hyperactive hurricane season. Chief Meteorologist of the Weather Company Todd Crawford anticipates that the 2020 Atlantic hurricane season, which officially begins on 1 June, will experience 18 named storms, eight hurricanes and four major-hurricanes. Hurricanes reaching Category 3 and higher (178km/h or above) on the Saffir-Simpson Wind Scale are classified as major hurricanes due to their potential for inflicting significant loss of life or damage. The predication is significantly above the 30-year normalized average (1981-2010) of 13 named storms, seven hurricanes, and 3 major hurricanes.

An earlier forecast report released on 2 April by Colorado State University (CSU) suggests much the same outlook, predicting 16 named storms, eight hurricanes and four major hurricanes. The forecast is based on a statistical prediction scheme using 38 years of past data as well as a combination of data from both the United Kingdom Met Office and the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts. The report concluded that there is a 58% probability of at least one major hurricane tracking into the Caribbean, above the average of 42% for last century.

On 20 April, an official forecast from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), a US federal government scientific agency predicted a 20% chance of El Niño coinciding with the peak of the Atlantic hurricane season. El Niño refers to a 12-18 month period in which anomalously warm sea surface temperatures occur in the eastern half of the equatorial Pacific.

The CSU report highlighted the El Niño forecast by the NOAA as a primary reason for predicting above-normal activity in the upcoming hurricane season. According to the institution, “El Niño tends to increase upper-level westerly winds across the Caribbean into the tropical Atlantic, tearing apart hurricanes as they try to form”.

CSU also pointed to the warmer-than-normal sea surface temperatures in the tropical Atlantic as a reason for its prediction as the conditions provide more fuel for cyclone formation and intensification. The 2020 Atlantic basin average Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE), a measure of a storm’s potential for wind damage and destruction, is expected to be approximately 140% of its long-term average.

If the forecasts are correct, the 2020 hurricane season will be the fifth consecutive year of above-normal activity. The 2019 hurricane season was an exceptionally devastating one, bringing 18 named storms and 20 tropical cyclones. Hurricane Dorian, an ultra-intense Category 5 hurricane with winds peaking at 295km/h, gained infamy for becoming the most intense tropical storm on record to strike The Bahamas. Dorian surpassed hurricane Irma in 2017 as the most powerful hurricane ever recorded outside of the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico. An Inter-American Development Bank (IDB) report published in November 2019 estimated the total cost of the impact of Dorian on The Bahamas at US$3.4bn, over a quarter of the country’s GDP.

For the Caribbean, the ominous forecasts come at a particularly unwelcome time as governments in the subregion are exhausting resources to tackle the fallout from the coronavirus (Covid-19) health crisis. Ronald Jackson, the outgoing head of the Caribbean Disaster Emergency Management Agency (CDEMA) has warned that the region is facing “a perfect storm”.

Commenting on the dire prospects for the region, Jackson said: “You are managing your current debt-to-GDP ratios, you’re managing your fiscal environments, you’re dealing with social challenges, and even if you were making some headway, here comes the Covid crisis.” He then asks: “What resources are now available for traditional preparedness expenses? Your warehousing supplies, your shelter facilities – are some of them being used as isolation facilities? Things like your rainy-day funds that you may have used for Covid, will it be available in a hurricane to provide relief, resources post-hurricane, and recovery-related costs?”

Gaston Browne, the prime minister of Antigua & Barbuda, summed up the despair and fear felt by many of the region’s leaders when he told Jamaica’s Sunday Gleaner: “God forbid, and if any of our [Caribbean Community] member states suffers any devastation from hurricanes, it would be a metaphorical hellfire.” Ralph Gonsalves, prime minister of St Vincent & the Grenadines, echoed this in the same article, which was published on 26 Aprilm by warning of a possible “bloodbath” in the offing.

According to CDEMA, natural disasters in the last three years have cost the region in excess of US$118bn.