Mexico & Nafta - 14 September 2004

The consensus amongst Mexican political commentators is that President Vicente Fox is a lame duck for the rest of his mandate, which lasts until the end of November 2006. It is true that he is unlikely to make much progress with the reforms he wanted to introduce: to the tax system and to the way the energy industry is organised and regulated (ie allowing the private sector to do more). There is a chance, however, that there may be some far-reaching reforms to the constitution which may make life easier for Fox's successors.

The result of the most recent state election, in Veracruz, is a horrible illustration of what may happen at the federal level in 2006. The winner in a near-three-way race, Fidel Herrera, won just under 35% of the vote. He was less than one percentage point ahead of the runner up and only six percentage points ahead of the third-placed candidate. The turnout was over 60%, the highest for any of the state elections this year. 

If this sort of result is repeated in the presidential election in 2006, the country could be ungovernable. The mix of first past-the-post and proportional seats for congressional elections, both at the state and federal level, means that the winner of the executive election has no chance of commanding a majority. Arguably, the system gives a disproportionate reward to the party that comes third: it is this party that will decide which legislation will prosper. Some thoughtful politicians are fearful about what this could mean for the country for another six years. Fox saw his position in congress erode as his administration wore on. There are two possible ways of changing this. The first is to introduce a second round into the presidential election. Fox himself was the first Mexican president to have been elected by a minority of voters: 43%. Felipe Calderón Hinojosa, the only declared candidate for the Partido Acción Nacional's presidential nomination, suggested the idea of a second round on 7 September. He did not say that he supported the idea, only that perhaps it should be considered. 

One question, as Calderón said, was whether there should be a second round in congressional (or municipal) elections as well. One possible solution would be to make the division between proportional and first-past-the post seats more explicit: the first-past-the-post seats would go to a second round, if no candidate obtained a majority in the first round. Proportional representation would be awarded according to parties' scores in the first round. The second issue is re-election. Political commentators have long said that three year terms for the lower chamber of congress are too short: members have to leave just as they are understanding how things work. The government has already floated the idea of allowing mayors to be re-elected. All the political parties have an interest in making the political system more effective: it is possible that Fox could preside over some far-reaching, and essential, reforms here.