Mexico & Nafta - March 2005

The lower chamber of congress approved, on 22 February, a proposal to allow Mexicans living in the US to vote in the next presidential election in 2006. The move could increase the electorate by about 10% (or 4m people). There was no significant opposition in the lower chamber to the change, although the Partido Acción Nacional had some reservations about some of the details and three members of the Partido Revolucionario Institucional voted against the proposal on the grounds that it was poorly thought-out.

Whether the change will get through the senate is far from clear. Key issues, such as whether voters in the US could use the US courts to challenge decisions by the Mexican election supervisor, the Instituto Federal Electoral, were dodged. Yet if the senate fails to approve the proposal it risks criticism from right across the political spectrum in Mexico. The betting must be that the senate will nod through an impracticable law that will almost certainly be approved by President Vicente Fox. If this happens, the 2006 elections are likely to become even more complicated. 

The proposal, as it emerged from the lower chamber, would allow polling stations to be set up outside Mexico, in places where at least 15,000 Mexicans live, and for candidates to campaign outside the country. 

One tricky issue, not properly addressed, is the financial side. Currently candidates are barred from taking money from abroad for their campaigns. The proposal only bans candidates from buying airtime from foreign broadcasting companies. The IFE has yet to work out the costs involved in extending the franchise to US residents. Congress will have to include the sum in the budget for 2006. Only Mexicans with valid voting papers will be allowed to vote in the polling stations in the US. To get them, expatriates will have to go through their state electoral agencies, demonstrating that they are who they claim to be and that they would have the right to vote if they were resident in Mexico. 

The general view is that if the vote is extended to non-residents, the Partido de la Revolución Democrática will benefit. The consensus among academics is that the expatriates will vote against the ruling party, the Partido Acción Nacional and as they also have unhappy experiences of the Partido Revolucionario Institucional, the PRD will get their votes. 

There are several other electoral issues before congress. One is whether there should be a second round in the presidential election. Currently there is only one round so, theoretically at least, in a three way race, the next president could be elected with little more than 30% of the vote. President Vicente Fox was elected with 42.5% of the vote and he was the first president to fail to win an absolute majority. Another issue is whether there should be scope for a referendum or plebiscite to curtail an administration.