Mexico & Nafta - December 2006 (ISSN 1741-444X)

President-elect Felipe Calderón Hinojosa will be inaugurated as Mexico's second president from the Partido Acción Nacional on 1 December. Unlike his immediate predecessor, Vicente Fox, whose term has been a disappointment, given the support and expectations he stimulated in 2000, Calderón cannot rest on his laurels.

Fox's historic victory in 2000, over the Partido Revolucionario Institucional, meant that his place in Mexican history was assured, whatever happened during his presidency. Perhaps Fox was wise to let Mexicans slowly get used to living in an embryonic democracy rather than a one-party state: for many political commentators Fox was a failure because he failed to implement the big changes in Mexico he and his victory promised.

Fox failed to force political reforms through congress or to impose his will on the supreme court. Yet by refusing to govern in the old way, he made Mexico more of a democracy. Congress and the supreme court are now much weightier institutions and Mexico is much less of an elected dictatorship. The paradox of Fox, for whom the constitution had to be changed so that he could stand for the presidency, is that he allowed these fundamental democratic credentials to be sullied by his wife and his supporters. They mounted a low farce to try to ensure his legacy by picking, or at least rigging the choice of, his successor.  

On the day of his inauguration six years ago, Fox famously had breakfast with sixty street children. Of the three to whom he promised work on his farm, two are now dead and the other's whereabouts is unknown, a situation somehow symptomatic of the unfulfilled promises of Fox's administration. Fox failed to change their lives or fates. That failure, both personal and political, illustrates the new weakness of the presidency and the scale of Mexico's problems. With his narrow mandate, President-elect Felipe Calderón cannot afford to take the long view. To justify his victory he has to show that he and the government can improve people's lives. The crucial issue now is security. Under Fox the country has become progressively more violent and lawless, though, arguably, the government has become more open and, with the major exception of the police, less corrupt.

The way Calderón is approaching taking office suggests that he expects to be judged on results, not column inches. His economic cabinet is highly technocratic but, with one major exception, experienced. His social spending ministers are all from his Partido Acción Nacional. So they are motivated by the politician's need to harness the power of the federal government to win elections. The law and order team, the crucial selection, over which both of the two last presidents made crucial mistakes, was the last to be announced and is likely to be the most radical of the three cabinet groups. Its members will, almost certainly, determine what sort of start Calderón makes to his sexenio.