Mexico & Nafta - January 2007 (ISSN 1741-444X)

Although President Felipe Calderón Hinojosa has made no formal gesture of support for the controversial Partido Revolucionario Institucional governor of Oaxaca, he has effectively confirmed him in power. This was underlined by the withdrawal of the Policia Federal Preventiva (PFP) from Oaxaca, which began on 16 December. 

Around 4,500 members of the PFP were sent into Oaxaca six weeks ago after confrontations between the state government and proto-revolutionaries in the Asamblea Popular de los Pueblos de Oaxaca (APPO) had killed three people. Calderón's first move in resolving the long running unrest in Oaxaca was to order the arrest of two of the driving forces behind the APPO, Flavio and Horacio Sosa and several of their senior lieutenants. Flavio Sosa claimed that altogether 362 members and sympathisers of the APPO have been arrested. Over Christmas and the New Year there was a steady stream of APPO members being released from jail. The Sosa brothers, however, were transferred to Almoloya, the high security jail outside Mexico City. 

So far, there has been no return to violence in Oaxaca. The official death toll for the unrest in Oaxaca is 11, though the APPO claims that 17 people have been killed since the unrest started with a teachers strike in May. The federal forces will hand over to local police, thus confirming power in the hands of the controversial governor, Ulises Ruiz. The APPO wanted Ruiz to resign. Even moderate members of President Calderón's Partido Acción Nacional have doubts about Ruiz. 

The Frente Amplio Progresista (FAP), the leftwing alliance in the federal congress, has been trying to drum up support for the APPO, but with little success. The rallies on 9 and 10 December in support of the APPO were pretty sparsely supported. There are (short-term) political advantages to the federal government's tough line on Oaxaca. The federal government's support for Ruiz may secure the support of PRI deputies from southern Mexico, where the party competes against the FAP's main component, the Partido de la Revolución Democrática. One of the Sosa brothers now in Almoloya, Flavio, is a member of the PRD's national committee.