Mexico & Nafta - February 2009 (ISSN 1741-444X)

An opinion poll published in a Mexico City newspaper, El Universal, on 9 February had the Partido Revolucionario Institucional (PRI) all but 15 percentage points ahead in the congressional elections due in July. The PRI is on 39.9%, while the ruling Partido Acción Nacional (PAN), currently the biggest party in congress, is on 25% and the leftwing Partido de la Revolución Democrática (PRD) is on 15%.

Our view is that the poll is worse news for the PAN government than the PRD (the second biggest party in congress), even though the polls shows that the PRD's national support has halved since the 2006 elections. The PRD's comfort is that it is still popular and strong in Mexico City, the country's second most important electoral district. The PRD is also strong in the Estado de México, which is the country's biggest electoral district. Together, the Distrito Federal (i.e. Mexico City) and the Estado account for 66 of the 300 directly elected seats in congress.

There are also psychological reasons why the the PRD is less likely to be shaken by the poll than the PAN. The PRD is essentially an opposition party and has only exercised power in a few states, notably Mexico City. The PAN is much harder-headed and keener on holding and retaining power. The PRD is also used to seeing its support fluctuate wildly. The ruling PAN is not and it suffered badly in the last mid-term elections in 2003 and this crippled the second half of then-President Vicente Fox's term (2000-2006).

There is also a historical reason. In the last congressional elections in 2006, the PRD did much better than its historical level of between 15% and 20%. On the back of its populist presidential candidate, Andrés Manuel López Obrador, the PRD won 25% of the vote. López Obrador won just over 35% of the vote in the presidential elections and the winner of the presidency, Felipe Calderón Hinojosa, just under 36%.

Currently the PAN has 207 seats in the 500-seat congress and the PRD and its allies have 155. The PRI has 106, with the remaining seats split between the Greens, the Partido Nueva Alianza (PNA) which is loyal to the leader of the teachers' union, Elba Esther Gordillo, and the Partido Socialdemócrata. In the 2003 mid-terms, the PAN went down from 206 to 154 seats. Indeed, since 1997, all the mid-term elections have been appalling for the ruling party of the time. (In 1997 the PRI dropped from 300 seats to 238.)

The El Universal opinion poll put the PRI on 39.9%. This will not give it a majority in congress, but the party is only a step away from the 43% support that political scientists calculate would trigger the overrepresentation clause in the electoral law that would automatically give the PRI 251 seats in congress.

What is more likely is that the PRI will fall just short of this. Assume it gets 80 of the 200 proportional seats and then say 45% (thanks to the power of its electoral machine and the mistakes the other parties will make over picking candidates) of the 300 directly elected seats. That would give the PRI 135 directly-elected seats and thus 215 seats in total. It is perfectly possible that it could pick up the other 36 seats it needs for a majority, first though an alliance with either the Partido Verde Ecologista de México (PVEM), with whom it fought the last election, and the PNA, and then by attracting 10 dissidents from the other parties. Currently the PVEM has 17 seats in congress and the PNA has nine.

The outlook for the PRD's allies, Convergencia and the Partido del Trabajo is markedly different. All parties need to win 2% of the national vote to retain their registration. Convergencia depends on Dante Delgado, a popular figure in Veracruz, the fourth most populous state, to achieve this. The PT, its critics say, depends on subsidies from President Hugo Chávez of Venezuela to keep going.

The other small party is the PSD (which has four seats in congress). It has been popular with the middle classes in Mexico City, almost entirely thanks to its former leader, Patricia Mercado, a leading feminist.

The PRI's strong suit is that it is the country's only national party: the PAN is strong in the north and west but, since the loss of the Yucatán in 2007, weak everywhere else. The PRD is strong in Mexico City and has pockets of support in various states but tends to do worse in congressional elections than gubernatorial or presidential ones.  

PAN nomination: The PAN has decided to nominate Fernando Elizondo Barragán as the party's candidate for the important gubernatorial election in Nuevo León this year. The choice was made by the PAN's national executive committee, which had been musing, often pretty publicly, on its selection since before Christmas. Elizondo was interim governor of the state when Fernando Canales Clariond was picked by former president Vicente Fox to become his economy minister. Elizondo's nomination is controversial because the PAN refused to hold a primary to pick the candidate.

At Elizondo's formal nomination, one of his rivals, Mauricio Fernández Garza (a member of the Garza-Sada clan which dominate the industrial sector in Monterrey, the capital of Nuevo León, appeared in black. He said that he was in mourning for the PAN. Just as significantly, Canales Clariond did not attend the formal nomination.

Political advertising: On 31 January and 1 February TV broadcasts of both the US “Superbowl" and local soccer matches were interrupted by political advertising. Politicians immediately accused the TV companies of trying to undermine the congressional reform of the broadcasting law which now makes the Instituto Federal Electoral (IFE) responsible for all political advertising. Previously political parties and special interest groups could buy airtime directly from broadcasters. The broadcasters and their supporters fear that the change will mean that there will be less political advertising. Elections are immensely lucrative for Mexico's dominant broadcasters, Televisa and TV Azteca. The broadcasters, the advocates of reform argue, wanted to annoy viewers by interrupting the sports, so much that they would protest to the IFE and get the practical effects of the reform reversed.

Yadira Tamayo, the president of the Comisión Especial para Reforma del Estado in the lower chamber, claimed that the broadcasters' action might also put people off voting. The interior minister, Fernando Gómez-Mont, officials from the IFE and the main broadcasters are now trying to broker an agreement.  

On 9 February the IFE warned the two main broadcasters and the satellite channel, Sky, that it would issues fines over the political adverts. The IFE says that all the broadcasters contravened its instructions.