Caribbean & Central America - November 2023
REGION: IMF and others cautious about Caribbean growth
After a strong recovery post-coronavirus (Covid-19) in 2021 and 2022, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) is predicting a slowdown in Caribbean growth in 2023 and 2024.
In the latest IMF World Economic Outlook (WEO) published on 13 October, growth in Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) this year is revised up a little to 2.3% after a stronger performance in Brazil and Mexico. Regional growth for 2024 is also predicted at 2.3%. The IMF is cautious in what it has to say about overall factors affecting the region, citing a “normalisation” of growth because of tighter monetary policies alongside a “weaker external environment and lower commodity prices”.
For prediction purposes the IMF has split the Caribbean in two. Eleven countries are in the “Caribbean: Tourism dependent” group. Here, the fastest growth is predicted for St Vincent & the Grenadines (6.2% in 2023 and 5.0% in 2024). Antigua & Barbuda, Dominica, and The Bahamas also do well. The second group of “Non-tourism dependent” countries sees much greater variation. Crisis-struck Haiti is expected to contract by 1.5% this year and to achieve only 1.4% growth in 2024. In dramatic contrast, oil-boom Guyana is expected to grow by an eye-watering 38.4% this year and 26.6% in 2024.