Israel drawing obvious lessons from Korean crisis
Nothing could be less surprising than the lessons that Israel is drawing from the North Korean crisis. On the eve of the latest round of talks between the major powers and Iran in Kazakhstan, from 5-6 April, Israel’s Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu re-emphasized his well-known view that stopping Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons is his primary focus. In less than a week since then, his position has been reinforced by the failure of the talks with Iran in Almaty, by the continuing warmongering from North Korea, and by the latest test of Israeli public opinion.
On the eve of the Almaty talks, Netanyahu said: “There are many important issues in the Middle East such as trying to reach peace with the Palestinians and other regional issues, but they are all overshadowed if Iran believes it has the right to develop nuclear weapons, and continues to do so. Our main objective is to prevent that.”
He then made clear his frustration with the lack of progress in the negotiations, and the possible consequences of this, in a speech at a ceremony for Israel's Holocaust remembrance day on 7 April. He said: "What has changed since the Holocaust is our determination and our ability to defend ourselves. We appreciate the international community's efforts to stop Iran's nuclear program, but at no stage will we put our fate in the hands of others, even our closest friends."
This warning of a preparedness to take unilateral action was preceded by a number of comments about North Korea that emphasized what lessons Israel was taking from the Korean crisis. Netanyahu said on 4 April: “Today it is more clear than ever before that we simply cannot allow a situation in which a regime that calls for our annihilation obtains the weapons of annihilation. This must be prevented at all costs.”
The same point was made by Israel’s International Relations Minister Yuval Steinitz on the same day. He said: “The extreme regime in North Korea obtained nuclear weapons a short time ago and already a significant nuclear threat is hovering over the citizens of South Korea, Japan, and even the western United States. This demonstrates to all of us what are the likely ramifications for Israel, the Middle East, and Europe of nuclear weapons in the hands of the extreme regime in Iran.”
As to Israeli public opinion, a poll by the Dahaf Institute published last week found that 75% of the Israeli public believes that a nuclear-armed Iran would constitute an existential threat to Israel.
At the beginning of this week, on 8 April, senior Western diplomats were letting it be known, through anonymous briefings to the media, that although there had been little obvious progress in the Almaty talks, “there is enough substance for these negotiations to continue”. Even when these remarks were made, it was difficult to reconcile them with the fact that the sides could not even agree to meet again following the two days of talks. But the optimists argued that it should be taken as a good sign that the Iranians appeared willing to take part in detailed discussions of the various proposals.
Unfortunately for the optimists, the very next day, on 9 April, Iran announced that it had reopened two uranium mines and a milling plant, apparently with a view to demonstrating its increasing self-sufficiency in the production of nuclear fuel despite sanctions.
In a speech to Iran’s Atomic Energy Organization on the same day, President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad said that despite the “utmost” efforts of the Western powers to prevent Iran from acquiring a nuclear capability, “this nuclear technology and power and science has been institutionalized…All the stages are in our control and every day that we go forward a new horizon opens up before the Iranian nation”.
It has also been interesting to view Iran’s interpretation of the North Korean crisis. Beyond the obvious, and very important perception that it is Pyongyang’s possession of nuclear weapons that will prevent the US and South Korea from using military force against the North, the Iranian interpretation of China’s behaviour is both interesting and important.
Conservative circles in Tehran are saying that Beijing is standing behind Pyongyang (not being blindsided by it, as some Western observers are maintaining), and that Beijing will continue to show a robust front to any US threats. To what extent Iran believes China will support its cause against the US and Israel might to some extent be conditioned by this interpretation of China’s actions over North Korea. And, indeed, if Tehran comes to believe that Beijing is supporting Pyongyang despite Pyongyang going further than Beijing might want, then that could be even more significant.
Against this background, at least some in the Middle East see the concerted effort by the United States to secure, first, a rapprochement between Israel and Turkey, and, second, some movement on the Palestinian front, as a possible prelude to war with Iran. US Secretary of State John Kerry visited Turkey on 7 April for the second time in five weeks. His second visit came just two weeks after President Obama had engineered the reconciliation between Israel and Turkey.
Kerry, of course had multiple reasons for returning so quickly to Ankara, including Cyprus, Iraq, and Syria, but that Iran was high on the agenda cannot be doubted. It was also high on his list when continuing his trip to Israel.
In Israel on 8 April, Kerry said: “We understand the nature of the threat of Iran. And as the president has said many times – he doesn't bluff. He is serious. We will stand with Israel against this threat and with the rest of the world, who have underscored that all we are looking for is Iran to live up to its international obligations…No option will be taken off the table.”
Kerry then added that while the United States would continue to seek a diplomatic resolution to Iran's nuclear programme: “Our eyes are open, and we understand the clock is moving. No one will allow the diplomatic process to stand in the way of whatever choices need to be made to protect the world from yet another nuclear weapon in the wrong hands.” Kerry’s visit will now be followed up by US Defence Secretary Chuck Hagel, who will make his first visit to Israel since taking office from 21-23 April. JdeC.
NOTE: Kerry is trying to arrange a four-way meting involving Israel, the Palestinians, Jordan, and the US. For the time being, the Palestinians are saying that they won’t join any talks without some prior positive moves from Israel. The US is responding to this by increasing its private pressure on Israel to make a gesture (see this week’s Risk Pointers for more on this).