Courcy’s Intelligence Brief

The International Crisis Group (ICG) published a paper on 8 April on the China-Japan dispute over the Senkaku/Diaoyu Islands.  The most interesting contribution in this latest paper is on China’s tactic of “reactive assertiveness”.

The report notes that this tactic of “reactive assertiveness” has been used by China in other disputes.  The tactic consists of using the actions of another party as “justification to push back hard and change the facts on the ground in its favour”.  One example was in April 2012 after the Philippines despatched a warship to arrest Chinese fishermen near the Scarborough Shoal.  After both sides withdrew in mid-June, the Chinese returned to rope off the mouth of the lagoon to prevent Filipino fishermen from entering and began routine patrols of the area.  In this way, China has taken advantage of the Philippines action “to establish effective control of the shoal” and to change the status quo in its favour.

In June 2012, when Vietnam passed a maritime law with new navigation regulations covering the Spratly and Paracel Islands, China responded by establishing Shansha City, with a military garrison, as the administrative centre for the islands and 2m sq km of the South China Sea.

With the Senkaku/Diaoyu Islands, China reacted to Japan’s September 2012 purchase of three of the islands from their private (Japanese) owners by declaring its overlapping administration of the disputed territory and sending regular patrols into the area.

This response by China was particularly shocking to Tokyo given that the Japanese government had made the purchase of the islands in order to prevent them falling into the hands of the nationalist mayor of Tokyo, Shintaro Ishihara.  Secondly, while the purchase changed the property rights to the islands it had no impact on questions of sovereignty.  Japan fully explained this rationale to Beijing months before it moved, but for China the opportunity for some effective “reactive assertiveness” was too good to miss.

There have now been more than 35 intrusions by Chinese vessels into the disputed waters since September.