Populism

Chile is widely recognised as one of the safest countries in Latin America, but domestic public opinion is focused on what it perceives to be sharply rising insecurity. The homicide rate in the chart below shows a multi-year upward trend, peaking at 5.8 per 100,000 inhabitants in 2020, and then dropping back sharply in 2021 (a fall widely attributed to the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic). The rate then rose again to reach a new record of 6.8 homicides per 100,000 in 2022. In the following three years (2023-2025) the murder rate fell year-by-year down to 5.4 in 2025. This presents something of a paradox. Compared to other Latin American countries with murder rates at 20-30 per 100,000 inhabitants, Chile is an outlier. The numbers also show that in a period of rapidly rising public concern over crime, including the years running up the 2025 elections, where security was arguably the single most important issue, the homicide rate was falling, not rising.