Populism

Colombia has been the world’s top cocaine exporter for decades. The government-Farc peace agreement opened rebel-controlled territories and drug trafficking routes which were quickly seized by a wide range of groups including Farc dissidents, the ELN, and the Clan del Golfo. While some are ideologically motivated, the insurgents are also deeply involved in profitable drug production and distribution, illegal mining, migrant smuggling, arms trafficking, money laundering, contraband, and extortion. Criminal groups are rapidly adopting new technology, such as the use of drones. The prison system is plagued by corruption and overcrowding. The Colombian armed forces, with around half a million members, are one of the largest and most experienced in Latin America.  However, given the nature of the terrain and the financial resources they can call upon, most military experts believe that the army can push back and weaken the rebels, but that it is unable to completely eradicate them. As things stand there is a war of attrition, with low probability of the government winning a conventional military victory.