Caribbean & Central America - November 2009 (ISSN 1741-4458)

The main right-wing opposition Alianza Republicana Nacionalista (Arena) fractured in mid October, one day after the party's president Alfredo Cristiani had emphasised the need for unity. Cristiani was speaking on 11 October during the first party convention since Arena suffered its first defeat in presidential elections in March. The decision by 12 deputies to break away from Arena and form a splinter group is potentially a huge boost for President Mauricio Funes, and the ruling left-wing Frente Farabundo Martí­ para la Liberación Nacional (FMLN). Funes, however, is acting cautiously by stressing the need for a strong, constructive, opposition party.

The dissidents claimed they were left with no alternative but to rebel because the Arena party leadership, Coena, had lost touch with the people, with public support flowing to Funes who now enjoys an unprecedentedly high approval rating for a head of state in El Salvador. They maintained that there would now be two Arenas, one in favour of the people and one in favour of millionaires. This masks the true reason for their revolt, which was that the Arena party leadership had not so much lost touch with the people but lost touch with party members - specifically the 12 dissidents.

The dissidents objected to the way in which the 13 new members of Coena had been appointed. They said they should have been awarded with three Coena posts because they represented 11 departments and 800,000 votes between them.

Why did Arena split?
Arena, it should be noted, had exercised power for the last 20 years. When Funes took power in June, Arena was suddenly faced with the uncomfortable reality of serving in opposition for the first time. It is scarcely surprising that the party should have descended into infighting over conflicting interpretations of the momentous defeat and assignment of blame and, significantly, over who should enjoy the positions of power and privilege that remain.

When the FMLN faced its long years in opposition, the orthodox leadership kept a very tight grip on the party. This fuelled resentment, prompting several splinter groups to break away to set up rival parties. None of these parties ever posed much of a threat to the FMLN and have either been subsumed back into the party or continue to exist only on the political periphery.

There is a clear parallel with the Coena hierarchy. Guillermo Gallegos, the most prominent dissident who had previously served as head of the party in the legislative assembly and was a close associate of former president Tony Saca (2004-2009), accused Coena of “total abandonment". Coena posted a statement on the Arena website accusing Herbert Saca, the cousin of Tony Saca (and a close adviser) of fomenting the rebellion for his “personal advantage". Herbert Saca denied the claims while Tony Saca explicitly condemned the dissidents for breaking ranks, but the recriminations simply serve to demonstrate the party's difficulty in adapting to not wielding power.

The big irony for Cristiani is that he invested so much time in constructing a right-wing tripartite coalition together with the Partido de Conciliación Nacional (PCN) and the Partido Demócrata Cristiano (PDC) to make life hard for Funes by obstructing FMLN initiatives in the legislative assembly he failed to see the divisions emerging within his own party.

The new-look congress
The 12-strong bloc formed by the dissidents is now the third most significant in the 84-seat legislative assembly after the FMLN, with 35 seats, and Arena, now with 20. The PCN has 11 seats and the PDC five seats. The small left-wing Cambio Democrático (CD) also has one seat.

Funes gave a measured response to the split in Arena, calling on the party to resolve its conflict swiftly to preserve the credibility of the legislative assembly. He also underlined that his government required a “strong, responsive, rational and reasonable opposition" to move El Salvador forward. But, this is the popular diplomatic statesman and not the party political strategist talking. The new composition of congress opens up some intriguing possibilities for Funes, which he will be keen to exploit.

The 12 dissidents have made it clear that they will vote for “the good of the country", which would extend to voting with the FMLN. The PCN could also do so now it has effectively been freed from the grand right-wing coalition to which it belonged. Neither bloc would ever be a reliable source of support for Funes, as they both still hail from the right ideologically, but it does mean Funes could comfortably reach the simple majority of 43 required to approve the 'ordinary' 2010 budget of US$3.65bn he sent to congress in early October [RC-09-10].

It even means Funes could potentially muster the magical two-thirds majority of 56 required to win approval for the second 'extraordinary' budget of US$408m for social investment. This requires two-thirds support because it would be funded by international loans (see sidebar).

Cristiani had insisted at the Arena convention that the party would only approve the budget if the government refrained from dismissing any more public employees and provided funding for the political projects of the Arena mayor of San Salvador, Norman Quijano. These include a Metrobús initiative to combat congestion in San Salvador. The dissidents have hinted that they would be prepared to back the budget without conditions.

• Army

The defence minister, General David Munguí­a Payés, announced that some 6,500 soldiers were available to support police efforts in crime hotspots to combat widespread insecurity in El Salvador. President Funes insisted that they would not all be deployed in this way but that the number helping the police would increase “significantly" over the next six months. Funes has previously placed an emphasis on combating mara gangs with a more socially responsible policy which aims to eliminate the causes of organised crime rather than imprisoning gang members under the mano dura (firm hand) policy of Arena governments.

• Same sex marriages

Attempts to amend the constitution to prohibit same sex marriages have stalled in El Salvador's legislative assembly after the FMLN's decision to withhold its support from the amendment meant it fell short of the necessary two-thirds majority. The archbishop of San Salvador, José Luis Escobar Alas, initially called on Arena, and other right-wing, deputies to condition their approval of the 2010 budget on the FMLN voting to ratify the amendment. He later recognised that his remarks were “inopportune" and called on deputies to approve the budget on time.