Courcy’s Intelligence Brief

*** Kurdish civil disobedience. The Turkish authorities are concerned that Kurdish dissidents will step up their civil disobedience campaign in eastern and south-eastern Turkey, launched on 23 March, ahead of the 12 June parliamentary elections. The pro-Kurdish Peace and Democracy Party (BDP) is seeking to extend this campaign into mosques by asking people not to stand and pray behind state-appointed imams. The BDP says these imams are spying for the state and the ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP). The authorities say that the guerrilla Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK) is trying to plant ‘militant imams’ in mosques in south-east Turkey.

The Kurdistan Communities Union (KCU) is said to have trained about 1,000 imams to replace state-appointed imams in the east and south-east. The move appears to have been devised by the PKK to undermine the appeal of the Islamist-oriented AKP among religiously-minded Kurds. The PKK is Marxist-Leninist in origins.

*** Hamas preconditions. The Islamist-oriented Palestinian Hamas group, which controls the Gaza Strip, has set preconditions for reconciliation talks with the secular Fatah group that controls the West Bank. According to Turkish diplomats involved in mediation efforts, Hamas will only meet with Fatah officials if Hamas is promised the presidency in any Palestinian unity government.

*** Beijing continues to buy favour with Europe. A key strategic consequence of the global financial crisis, or more particularly of the sovereign debt crisis in Europe since 2009, is the extent to which China has helped support the eurozone.

In the latest move, on 12 April China’s Premier Wen Jiabao told Spain’s Prime Minister Jose Luis Rodriguez Zapatero : “China will continue to buy Spain’s government debts and play a part in supporting the Spanish savings bank restructuring bond.” Zapatero thanked Wen for helping to ensure “The stability and development of Spanish and European economies.” EU diplomatic sources do not deny that this support will come with a diplomatic price tag.

*** China in new crackdown on churches. The arrest of more than 160 Christians on 11 April seems to be part of the largest Chinese crackdown on unofficial churches in years. The 160 members of the 1,000-strong Shouwang Protestant Church were arrested after trying to hold an outdoor service following the loss of their rented premises in a film studio. The landlord had been pressured by the authorities into evicting the church.