Courcy’s Intelligence Brief

China’s National Defence white paper, published on 31 March, contains the usual anodyne protestations about China’s ‘peaceful rise’, but there are one or two significant pointers in the text, and a complaint this week by India adds some interesting context.

The white paper included the now usual assertion that “China will never seek hegemony, nor will it adopt the approach of military expansion now or in the future, no matter how its economy develops.”  Nevertheless, China justifies continued military expansion on the grounds that “international strategic competition and contradictions are intensifying” and “security threats are becoming increasingly integrated, complex, and volatile”.

In further justification, the white paper asserts that “some powers”, by which it means the United States, “have worked out strategies for outer space, cyber space, and the polar regions, developed means for prompt global strikes, accelerated development of missile defence systems, [and] enhanced cyber operations capabilities to occupy new commanding heights”.  It also points out that, in Asia, the US is reinforcing its regional military alliances and increasing its involvement in regional security affairs.

This challenge from the US, together with the objectives of maintaining internal stability, preventing separatism in Xinjiang and Tibet, and furthering the cause of reunification with Taiwan, are used to justify what China sees as reasonable military spending increases.  The 2010 increase was 7.5%.  However, the 2011 defence budget, not discussed in the white paper, saw a return to double-digit increases with a rise of 12.7%.

The US response to all this is to be conciliatory, with reports from Washington suggesting that the Obama administration is unwilling to give formal approval to a $4bn arms deal for Taiwan in order to avoid another rift with China.

India, on the other hand, appears not to be persuaded by China’s protestations of good neighbourliness.  In the latest manifestation of India unease, India’s Northern Army Commander Lt-General KY Parnaik has been expressing concern about China’s presence in Pakistani-occupied Kashmir (PoK).   According to Parnaik, “Chinese presence in Gilgit-Baltistan and the northern areas is increasing steadily”.  The general sees this as part of China’s ‘string of pearls’ policy and says that “Chinese footprints are too close for comfort”.

For General Parnaik, the nexus between the Chinese and Pakistani military “jeopardises our regional strategic interests in the long run and facilitates speedy and enhanced deployment of Pakistan armed forces to complement China’s military operations and thus outranks India”.

Taiwan, for its part, despite greatly improved cross-strait relations since President Ma Ying-jeou came to power in 2008, has rejected (albeit politely) China’s calls in the white paper for military exchanges and other confidence-building measures.