Courcy’s Intelligence Brief

*** Egypt accused of supporting attacks on Ethiopia.  There has been a major escalation in rhetoric between Ethiopia and Eritrea.  Ethiopia is accusing Eritrea of planning terrorist attacks on public places in Ethiopia, and Prime Minister Meles Zenawi has linked Eritrea’s belligerence to Egypt.  Speaking in parliament on 5 April, he accused Eritrea of being “a militia force” for Egypt in the latter’s efforts to hinder Ethiopia’s development projects on the Nile.

When new Egyptian Prime Minister Issam Sharaf chose Khartoum as the first Arab capital to visit this was widely seen as a reflection of Egypt’s need for an ally against the African Nile Basin countries’ attempt to amend treaties on the sharing of the Nile’s waters.  They are seeking to reduce Egypt’s share of 54bn cubic metres.  Sudan takes the second largest share with 18bn cubic metres.  Now Ethiopia has linked Egyptian opposition to any change in the Nile waters’ regime to support for Eritrean-organized terrorism in Ethiopia.

Hinting at war, Zenawi warned: “We will not only focus on picking up the mercenaries [sent by Eritrea to carry out terrorist attacks], but also take appropriate actions against the one who sent the mercenaries...If [the Eritrean government] declares an all out war on our country, then we will take an all out counter-offensive.”

*** Kashmir training camps “full”. The atmosphere at the 28-29 March home secretary-level talks between India and Pakistan was good, as it was when Prime Ministers Manmohan Singh and Yusuf Raza Gillani met on the sidelines of the cricket world cup.  However, controversial issues were avoided at the home secretary-level talks, and the Indian army remains concerned about the threat to Kashmir.

According to India’s Lt-General SA Hasnain, the threat to Kashmir from Pakistani-based Kashmiri guerrillas could increase at any time because the training camps in Pakistani-administered Kashmir (PoK) are full.  Speaking on 3 April he said: “The training camps in PoK are full and the militants trained there are waiting to infiltrate into Kashmir.”

*** Kyrgyzstan anniversary watch.  Kyrgyzstan has increased security measures ahead of the 7 April anniversary of the overthrow of President Kurmanbek Bakiyev following a popular uprising.  All security agencies and people’s militia units have been mobilized.

A recent International Crisis Group (ICG) report warned that the five former Soviet republics of Central Asia faced systemic collapse, largely because of crumbling physical and human infrastructure.  Of the five, the report pointed to Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan as being the two most vulnerable.