Courcy’s Intelligence Brief

*** Cyprus supported by Israel and Russia.  In our 10 August issue, we noted that Turkey’s Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu had warned the divided island of Cyprus against drilling for oil and gas in the Mediterranean.  He said: “We will show the appropriate reaction if any further step is taken.”  Turkey’s position is that the Greek Cypriot administration does not have the right to conduct oil and gas exploration until a government representing the whole island, including the breakaway northern Turkish element, is formed.  The Cypriot government has said it will begin drilling for hydrocarbons off the island’s southern coast on 1 October.

We also noted that the issue forms a further bone of contention between Turkey and Israel at a time when relations between the one-time allies have deteriorated sharply.  The exploration is to take place in an 800,000 acre area bordering Israeli waters where large natural-gas finds have been made.  Greek Cyprus signed an accord with Israel last November demarcating the maritime border, but Turkey has called this agreement ‘null and void’ because it has not considered the rights of Turkish Cyprus.

As this issue goes to press, Cypriot Foreign Minister Erato Kozakou-Marcoulis is visting Israel less than three weeks after taking office, and a Cypriot foreign ministry official says that the speed with which the new minister has arranged to visit Israel is a sign of how importantly Cyprus views support from Israel.  This is a marked reversal from 10 years ago when Greece and Cyprus were amongst the most unfriendly countries in Europe towards Israel.  The change is a direct consequence of Israel’s own falling out with Turkey.

Separately, Cyprus has also received support from Russia in the past week over its dispute with Turkey.  On 22 August, Russian Foreign Ministry Spokesman Aleksandr Lukashevich described Cyprus’s exploration plans as being “consistent with international law and the scope of rights available to the Republic of Cyprus in accordance with the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea”.

*** Russia’s stake in Syria.  Russian arms experts say that if international sanctions are imposed on arms supplies to Syria, it will jeopardise 10% of Russian defence industry exports. 
Konstantin Makiyenko of the Centre for Analysis of Strategies and Technologies says: “One example is that Syria accounts for 24 out of 70 MiG-29 fighter jets which Russia’s MiG aircraft construction corporation has undertaken to supply to foreign customers, ie for one-third of the portfolio.”

According to Makiyenko, sanctions against Iran have resulted in direct losses to the Russian aircraft and defence industries of “at least $7bn-$8bn”.