Courcy’s Intelligence Brief

No sooner was the ink dry on our report last week about China’s “charm offensive with Seoul and Tokyo” (Courcy’s Intelligence Brief, 25 May) than China was in a spat with Vietnam over an alleged violation of Vietnam’s territorial waters in the South China Sea.

On 26 May, Chinese marine surveillance ships interfered with a Vietnamese survey vessel, the Binh Minh 02, within Vietnam’s exclusive economic zone and continental shelf.  The three Chinese boats threatened the Binh Minh 02 and cut a cable, saying that the Vietnamese ship was violating China ’s sovereignty.  The incident took place 128 kilometres off the south-central coast of Vietnam, and 643 kilometres south of China's Hainan island.

China's Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Jiang Yu defended the actions of the Chinese vessels as "completely justified" and warned Vietnam about "creating new incidents".   A Chinese spokesman added that what China had done was “completely normal marine law-enforcement and surveillance activities in China’s jurisdictional sea area”.

Vietnam’s Foreign Ministry spokesperson Nguyen Phuong Nga said: “Vietnam resolutely opposes the Chinese side’s action that damaged and hindered Vietnam’s normal exploration and survey activities on its continental shelf and exclusive economic zone.”

Nga added: “China advocates peaceful solutions to disputes [and says] it’s powerful but not hegemonic.  We hope that China will fulfil its role as a power and strictly follow what Chinese leaders have declared.”

A statement issued by Vietnam’s foreign ministry added: “The area where Vietnam conducted exploration activities situates entirely in the exclusive economic zone and the 200-nautical mile continental shelf of Vietnam in accordance with the 1982 United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea.  It is neither a disputed area not is it an area ‘managed by China’.  China has deliberately misled the public into thinking that it is a disputed area.”

Even more strongly, the Vietnamese statement said that China’s ‘nine-dash’ line marking its alleged area of sovereignty in the East Sea (South China Sea) “is completely legally groundless” and it added that “China’s attempt to realize this claim is in fact escalating tensions in the region”.

Chinese maps of the South China Sea dating back to 1947 include a dotted line that is usually referred to as the “nine-dotted line” or the “U-shaped line”.  The dotted line encloses the main island features of the South China Sea: the Pratas Islands, the Paracel Islands, the Macclesfield Bank, and the Spratly Islands. The dotted line also captures James Shoal.  China submitted its 9-dash line map to the UN on 7 May 2009, but protests were subsequently filed by Vietnam, Malaysia, Indonesia, and the Philippines.

This incident comes only a few weeks after a reported intrusion by Chinese fighter jets into Philippines airspace in the vicinity of the Reed Banks in the Spratly chain.  Philippines President Benigno Aquino subsequently tried to play down the incident, accusing the media of sensationalism.  In part he could do this as it was not definitively established that the intrusion was made by Chinese aircraft.

However Aquino did warn China’s Defence Minister Liang Gianglie, during the latter’s subsequent visit to the Philippines, that such incidents were likely to promote an arms race and even conflict.  He said: “We may not have the [military] capabilities now, but that might force us to increase our capabilities.”

The main point of our 25 May report was to suggest that China’s conciliatory approach to the recent trilateral South Korea-Japan-China summit indicated that China under President Hu Jintao has not entirely forgotten Deng Xiaoping’s famous dictum: “Hide one’s capacities and bide one’s time”.

But these incidents in China’s neighbouring waters do just keep on coming.  They cannot be ignored or completely obscured by the occasional Chinese charm offensive.  Aquino, who has been accused by some sections of the Philippines press as being soft on China, is not a scaremongerer.

NOTE: After a break of a year, following the denial by Beijing of a visa to an Indian army commander based in Kashmir (on the grounds that he came from a “sensitive” area), India and China have said that they intend to resume their defence dialogue.

China’s Defence Secretary Ma Xiaotian is expected to visit New Delhi in the first week of June.  In the second half of June, an eight-member Indian military delegation led by a major-general will visit China.