Courcy’s Intelligence Brief

*** Russian accusations against Georgia.  Russia’s state-controlled Channel One television aired a documentary on 30 May alleging that the Georgian government supports Islamist terrorism in the Russian North Caucasus.

*** Turkish aid for Gaza.  Turkey’s Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu said on 26 May that the Turkish government was working “on all possible scenarios” for a new aid flotilla to travel to the Gaza Strip to deliver humanitarian assistance.  On 31 May 2010, nine Turkish nationals were killed when Israeli troops raided the Mavi Marmara aid ship.  Davutoglu said: “We think that Israel is well experienced not to repeat the Mavi Marmara attack.”

However, on the same day Israel’s Lt-General Benny Ganz said that Israel was preparing to stop any new aid flotilla.  He said: “We are preparing for the flotilla in accordance with the orders of the Israeli government.  We are preparing to stop it.”  Pro-Palestinian activists are preparing a flotilla of 15 ships carrying 1,500 people from 100 countries.

Turkey’s foreign minister insists that the solution is in Israel’s hands.  He said that if Israel does not want to see new convoys it needs to recognize the Palestinian administration and end the blockade.

*** Israel reiterates military option against Iran.  In an interview on 30 May with the Russian news agency Interfax, Israel’s Deputy Prime Minister Moshe Yaalon reiterated the possibility of a military strike against Iran’s nuclear facilities.

Yaalon said: “We very much hope that the whole civilized world will realize what threat the [Iranian] regime poses and take joint measures to prevent the nuclear threat from Iran, even if a pre-emptive strike will have to be launched.”

Yaalon also suggested that a peace agreement with the Palestinians would not be worth the paper it is written on.  He said: “It seems to me that the idea of a peace treaty generally accepted in the West, as a paper document signed by the parties, is not applicable to the Palestinian-Israeli conflict.  In the absense of common interests and a constructive dialogue, a paper agreement of this kind will not have any force.”

With regard to the Obama administration’s call for a settlement based on a modified version of the pre-1967 border, Yaalon said that “all attempts to resolve the problems with a territorial division based on 1967 borders are simply unacceptable to us”.  Quite apart from Israel’s need for defendable borders, Yaalon pointed out that no one on the Palestinian side is prepared to say that a territorial compromise of the type proposed “will put an end to the whole conflict”.