CourcyInt

SPECIAL BULLETIN

TO: All Strategic Intelligence Forum members

FROM: JKC de Courcy, Publisher, Strategic Intelligence Review

DATE: 28 January 2008

SUBJECT:

CHAVEZ ESCALATES HIS RHETORIC

We keep a close eye on what Venezuela's President Hugo Chavez is up to - but not as close an eye as our sister organization Latinnews.  Today's Latinnews Daily Briefing looks at Chavez's 26 January call at the presidential summit of the Alternativa Bolivarian para las Américas (Alba) for the creation of a regional military alliance against the US.

The call comes at the same time as Chavez has accused Colombia of preparing for military action against Venezuela. Chavez said that he had ordered his defence and foreign relations ministers to draw up an Alba Defence Council, claiming "our enemy is the same: the US empire. But if it attacks one of us, it will be an attack against all of us". Bolivia, Cuba, Nicaragua, and Dominica are, with Venezuela, part of the Alba.

Nicaragua's President Daniel Ortega gave Chavez's call strong support, saying during Chavez's weekly radio broadcast on 27 January that the US is "not only plotting against Venezuela, but also against [Latin American] regional integration". He went on to say that the US is using Colombia to create "military tensions". Ortega claimed that Colombia was not accepting the ruling from the International Court of Justice over border maritime border between Nicaragua and Colombia in the Caribbean.

The call for the formation of a military alliance follows the deterioration of Venezuelan-Colombian relations in recent months, which Chavez blames on US interference and on the Colombian "oligarchies". Bilateral relations went on a downwards spiral after President Alvaro Uribe of Colombia asked Chavez last November to withdraw from the negotiations with Colombian guerrilla groups to release hostages.

Last week both Colombian and US officials claimed that members of the Fuerzas Armadas Revolucionarias de Colombia (which Chavez sees as insurgents but the Colombians and US view as narco-financed terrorists) move freely in Venezuela and that Chavez "facilitated" the traffic of Colombian cocaine through Venezuela.  At the Alba summit Chavez challenged the Colombian and US governments to prove these allegations before reverting to his usual accusations that the two governments are plotting to topple or even kill him. Chavez went on to declare: "I warn the world of the following: the US empire is creating conditions to spark an armed conflict between Colombia and Venezuela".

It is possible that all this is just posturing on the part of Chavez, with the specific purpose of moving attention away from his political difficulties at home, which have increased following his defeat in the December referendum over his proposal constitutional reform. This was Chavez's first defeat at the ballot box since coming to power in 1998.

On the other hand, Chavez has ordered the Venezuelan military to carry out training operations in the Caribbean with "plenty of live ammunition", according to the official press agency; and Colombia's former defence minister, Rafael Pardo Rueda, has warned that "any non-intentional incident could escalate...to an unmanageable point".

Our sister Latinnews service (www.latinnews.com) has published two other reports in recent weeks that are of particular relevance to Chavez's foreign policy and should be of particular interest to StratInt members.  They are:

* What oil at $80-$100 a barrel means for Latin America - http://www.latinnews.com/leb/LEB16653.asp?instance=24

This report argues: "High oil prices will exacerbate the differences between the region's oil producers. The winners will be the 21st century socialists. These are the region's leftwing governments, led by President Hugo Chavez of Venezuela. They will find that their model of allowing foreign oil companies to develop oil fields but only on the governments' terms, works. This means that the hosts' regional influence will increase. The big loser from high oil prices will, paradoxically, be Mexico, currently vying with Venezuela as the region's biggest oil producer. Mexico's problem is that its oil industry is a prisoner of 20th century socialist principles..."

* Petrocaribe: what is the real deal? - http://www.latinnews.com/lrc/LRC16612.asp?instance=14

This report argues that Petrocaribe will lead member countries to incur a dangerous level of dependency on Venezuela for energy supplies - a risk that may present a high political and economic cost in the future...

END