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  • Chavez escalates his rhetoric - 27 January 2008

    LatinNews 08 September 2011 Hits: 3

    SPECIAL BULLETIN

    TO
    : All Strategic Intelligence Forum members

    FROM: JKC de Courcy, Publisher, Strategic Intelligence Review

    DATE: 28 January 2008

    SUBJECT:

    CHAVEZ ESCALATES HIS RHETORIC

    We keep a close eye on what Venezuela's President Hugo Chavez is up to - but not as close an eye as our sister organization Latinnews.  Today's Latinnews Daily Briefing looks at Chavez's 26 January call at the presidential summit of the Alternativa Bolivarian para las Américas (Alba) for the creation of a regional military alliance against the US.

    The call comes at the same time as Chavez has accused Colombia of preparing for military action against Venezuela. Chavez said that he had ordered his defence and foreign relations ministers to draw up an Alba Defence Council, claiming "our enemy is the same: the US empire. But if it attacks one of us, it will be an attack against all of us". Bolivia, Cuba, Nicaragua, and Dominica are, with Venezuela, part of the Alba.

    Nicaragua's President Daniel Ortega gave Chavez's call strong support, saying during Chavez's weekly radio broadcast on 27 January that the US is "not only plotting against Venezuela, but also against [Latin American] regional integration". He went on to say that the US is using Colombia to create "military tensions". Ortega claimed that Colombia was not accepting the ruling from the International Court of Justice over border maritime border between Nicaragua and Colombia in the Caribbean.

    The call for the formation of a military alliance follows the deterioration of Venezuelan-Colombian relations in recent months, which Chavez blames on US interference and on the Colombian "oligarchies". Bilateral relations went on a downwards spiral after President Alvaro Uribe of Colombia asked Chavez last November to withdraw from the negotiations with Colombian guerrilla groups to release hostages.

    Last week both Colombian and US officials claimed that members of the Fuerzas Armadas Revolucionarias de Colombia (which Chavez sees as insurgents but the Colombians and US view as narco-financed terrorists) move freely in Venezuela and that Chavez "facilitated" the traffic of Colombian cocaine through Venezuela.  At the Alba summit Chavez challenged the Colombian and US governments to prove these allegations before reverting to his usual accusations that the two governments are plotting to topple or even kill him. Chavez went on to declare: "I warn the world of the following: the US empire is creating conditions to spark an armed conflict between Colombia and Venezuela".

    It is possible that all this is just posturing on the part of Chavez, with the specific purpose of moving attention away from his political difficulties at home, which have increased following his defeat in the December referendum over his proposal constitutional reform. This was Chavez's first defeat at the ballot box since coming to power in 1998.

    On the other hand, Chavez has ordered the Venezuelan military to carry out training operations in the Caribbean with "plenty of live ammunition", according to the official press agency; and Colombia's former defence minister, Rafael Pardo Rueda, has warned that "any non-intentional incident could escalate...to an unmanageable point".

    Our sister Latinnews service (www.latinnews.com) has published two other reports in recent weeks that are of particular relevance to Chavez's foreign policy and should be of particular interest to StratInt members.  They are:

    * What oil at $80-$100 a barrel means for Latin America - http://www.latinnews.com/leb/LEB16653.asp?instance=24

    This report argues: "High oil prices will exacerbate the differences between the region's oil producers. The winners will be the 21st century socialists. These are the region's leftwing governments, led by President Hugo Chavez of Venezuela. They will find that their model of allowing foreign oil companies to develop oil fields but only on the governments' terms, works. This means that the hosts' regional influence will increase. The big loser from high oil prices will, paradoxically, be Mexico, currently vying with Venezuela as the region's biggest oil producer. Mexico's problem is that its oil industry is a prisoner of 20th century socialist principles..."

    * Petrocaribe: what is the real deal? - http://www.latinnews.com/lrc/LRC16612.asp?instance=14

    This report argues that Petrocaribe will lead member countries to incur a dangerous level of dependency on Venezuela for energy supplies - a risk that may present a high political and economic cost in the future...

    END



  • Russia to be winner in Georgia - 13 November 2007

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    SPECIAL BULLETIN 

    TO: All Strategic Intelligence Forum members

    FROM: Alex Standish, Editor, Strategic Intelligence Review

    DATE: 13 November 2007 

    SUBJECT:

    RUSSIA TO BE WINNER IN GEORGIA

    Although the political crisis in Georgia appears to have been cooled down by the announcement of early presidential elections – in a move which is a major climb down for President Mikhail Saakashvili – the longer-term impact on the country could prove to be profound, particularly in terms of Tbilisi ’s relationship with both Russia and the West.

    As we pointed out in the last issue of SIR, Saakashvili is a staunch ally of both Nato and the European Union (see SIR 8 November). For that reason alone, Moscow regards him as an overtly hostile neighbour in its own backyard – or the ‘near abroad’ as some Russian politicians like to refer to former Soviet republics that have gained independence. The Georgian president has also upped the stakes by openly accusing the Kremlin of sending Russian intelligence agents into his country with the aim of inciting protests and disaffection.

    Relations between Russia and Georgia – always fragile – have hit a new low following Saakashvili’s allegations that “Russian agitators” were behind the recent demonstrations. Three senior Georgian diplomats have now been expelled by Moscow , while Tbilisi has responded by ordering three Russian envoys out of the country.

    Meanwhile, a Georgian minister has also claimed publicly that Moscow is reinforcing its troop deployment in Georgia ’s breakaway region of Abkhazia. According to a statement made by David Bakradze, the minister responsible for conflict resolution, Russia has recently moved additional tanks, artillery and around 200 extra servicemen, mostly Chechens serving with the Russian army, into its base at Ochamchire. Russia already has around 1,700 peace-keeping troops stationed in the area as part of a UN monitored ceasefire deal.

    The speaker of the Georgian parliament, Nino Burjanadze, made similar allegations during a national television broadcast in which she referred to “a major movement of Russian military equipment”. Moscow has denied these claims and accused the Georgian authorities of a “provocative act” in making these comments.

    Luzhkov's intervention

    We believe that it is particularly worthy of note that the mayor of Moscow, Yuri Luzhkov, a Putin loyalist and a politician who usually reflects the views of the Kremlin in his public speeches, has fuelled tensions by urging the Russian government to recognise the independence of Abkhazia. The impact of these comments can be seen from the fact that Saakashvili himself quoted them at the start of a lengthy speech broadcast on Georgia ’s national television channel earlier this week.

    In his address, Saakashvili also referred to a previously unreported conversation he said he had with Putin during a summit in Minsk last year. According to the Georgian president, “Putin directly told me at the summit in Minsk that Russia would create a new Cyprus in Abkhazia”. He went on to explain that he understood this threat to mean that Moscow could engineer a permanent division of the country similar to the situation in Cyprus following orchestrated demonstrations in 1973. However Saakashvili also pledged that “the Georgian security and law enforcement agencies, are totally mobilized to ensure that no one seizes Abkhazia or Tskhinvali [ South Ossetia ]”.

    Inevitably, there are serious questions about Washington ’s role in the Georgian crisis. Deputy Assistant Secretary of State Matthew J Bryza, who met with Saakashvili in Tbilisi this week, has demanded the lifting of the state of emergency to enable the continuation of “democratic reform”. Although this reflects US concern over the latest developments, it also highlights the extent to which the protest movement has damaged Georgia ’s president’s standing with the US administration. Even if the Kremlin had played no role in destabilising its neighbour, that outcome alone would have gratified President Vladimir Putin’s inner circle of former Soviet KGB chiefs.

    Saakashvili’s climb down

    Despite having promised not to bow to domestic pressure to bring forward the presidential poll, originally scheduled for the autumn of 2008, Saakashvili – presumably at Washington ’s instigation – has now announced that the election will take place in January. This humiliating climb down within a few days of the television broadcast in which he pledge to support the constitutional order has undoubtedly damaged the president’s credibility, at home and abroad. It is also likely that the state of emergency, which has seen a ban on public demonstrations and a virtual news blackout, will be lifted much earlier than the initial 22 November deadline.

    The Georgian opposition has already announced that it will field a single candidate, Levan Gachechiladze, an opposition member of parliament from the New Rights Party. Largely unknown outside Georgia , Gachechiladze is a businessman who owns a firm that produces alcoholic drinks.

    A rival figure from Georgia’s business elite, Badri Patarkatsishvili, has also suggested that he might run for the presidency, although it remains to be seen whether the man who is reputed to be the country’s wealthiest, will make it onto the ballot paper. He appears to have a conspicuous lack of domestic support which might hinder his campaign. The opposition – united for the first time behind Gachechiladze, also fears that a second rival to Saakashvili will risk splitting the vote.

    Whoever eventually contests the presidential poll will face an incumbent president who, despite his loyalty to the West, has been seriously damaged by recent events. At home, Saaakashvili has appeared to be authoritarian, while abroad his carefully cultivated image as a pro-Western liberal politician has been tarnished. Washington ’s reaction has also revealed the extent to which the US administration has become disenchanted with the Georgian leader.

    Russia ’s win-win situation

    Moscow is in a win-win situation. Saakashvili, a strongly pro-Western regional leader who dared to challenge Russia ’s drive to reassert its influence in Georgia, has been humbled and his political future called into question. Having openly fuelled fears of a return to conflict in Abkhazia and South Ossetia , the Kremlin has seized the political initiative.

    We believe that it is only a matter of time before the Georgian opposition – or at least some sections of it – makes a campaign pledge to rebuild bilateral relations with Putin’s administration. The price of that is likely to be a back-peddling on Georgia ’s ambitions to join either Nato or the EU - and an acceptance of a ‘friendly’ Russia ’s influence in the region.

    END

  • Nuclear-armed Pakistan on brink of chaos - 4 November 2007

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    SPECIAL BULLETIN

    TO: All Strategic Intelligence Forum members

    FROM: Alex Standish, Editor, Strategic Intelligence Review

    DATE: 4 November 2007

    SUBJECT: NUCLEAR-ARMED PAKISTAN ON BRINK OF CHAOS

    In our recent analysis of the deteriorating situation in Pakistan (see SIR 1 November) we warned that one of the courses open to President Pervez Musharraf would be to declare a state of emergency. Two days later, he did just that, leaving the country on the brink of chaos, with the risk that January’s parliamentary elections may have to be abandoned.

    Musharraf’s suspension of the constitution and his declaration of a state of emergency look very much like the last throw of the dice for a leader whose grip on power is steadily slipping away. He is taking an enormous risk by launching a pre-emptive strike against Pakistan ’s senior judiciary.

    As we pointed out earlier this week, the Supreme Court was in the midst of considering two specific issues: whether the general was constitutionally eligible to stand for re-election as president and whether Pakistan’s Prime Minister Shaukat Aziz was in contempt of court following his role in the arguably unlawful deportation of former premier Nawaz Sharif in September? A negative verdict against either Musharraf or Aziz would have been seen as further undermining the regime. In the event, the president seems to have lost his nerve by moving against his own Supreme Court justices before either issue could be decided.

    Chief Justice Iftikhar Muhammad Chaudhry, regarded by many Pakistanis as a national hero from his role in resisting Musharraf’s bid to dismiss him unconstitutionally, has now been deposed following his refusal earlier today to endorse the state of emergency. His replacement, Hameed Dogar, is a well-known Musharraf loyalist who can be expected to rubber-stamp the general’s decrees. However, given the mass support Chaudhry received across the country earlier this year during his battle with the president, it is unlikely that the chief justice will go quietly, even though the army has placed him under house arrest.

    The latest developments will have dashed Washington ’s hopes of a gradual transition back to democracy in Pakistan . It also seems likely that any deal negotiated with former prime minister Benazir Bhutto ahead of parliamentary elections scheduled for January 2008 will have come off the rails. Bhutto and her Pakistan People's Party (PPP) will hardly want to be seen endorsing Musharraf’s latest manoeuvre.

    This leaves the general staring into a political abyss. Although unqualified support from the Bush administration is long past, a workable agreement to hold democratic elections with the PPP taking part would have allowed the US to endorse the outcome of the poll without being seen to back a leader who is already deeply unpopular at home. As we have highlighted in recent issues of SIR, recent opinion polls suggest that around 64% of respondents were already opposed to Musharraf standing for a further presidential term (see SIR 11 October). In the aftermath of what many commentators are describing as a second “coup d’état” his unpopularity can be expected to mount, raising the prospect of mass demonstrations and the risk of widespread violence.

    By declaring a state of emergency and interfering with the Supreme Court, Musharraf will face escalating opposition from pro-democratic campaigners and rival politicians – as well as making it increasingly difficult for the West to continue supporting him. However, he is also facing a rising tide of violence from Islamist militants seeking revenge against the regime in the aftermath of the storming of Islamabad ’s Lal Masjid (Red Mosque) in July. Terrorist bomb attacks are increasing in frequency and even the army command in Rawalpindi was targeted last week.

    Since the general is facing increasing pressure from all sides, the fear is that he will retreat behind a repressive military regime, ruling by decree. Although Pakistan is not Burma ( Myanmar ), there could be disturbing parallels and the prospect of a nationwide campaign of repression against the civilian opposition parties.

    Next step martial law?

    So far, Musharraf has merely suspended the constitution. He has yet to impose martial law, although that cannot be ruled out, particularly if his opponents take to the streets again, as many of them did during his attempt to oust the chief justice earlier this year. Pakistan is undoubtedly facing a major crisis. The unknown question is whether this will escalate into a full-scale political meltdown, direct army rule, and serious loss of life, particularly in key Bhutto strongholds such as the city of Karachi .

    Our concern is that widespread instability is likely to boost popular support for Islamist militants as well as for pro-democracy movements. This in turn could provide fruitful recruitment opportunities for Al-Qaeda and its allies in Pakistan , as well as having the potential to further destabilise neighbouring Afghanistan . Since Pakistan is the world’s only Muslim state possessing nuclear weapons, any slide into a state of chaos would raise very serious concerns for the entire region and beyond – a risk that the US is unlikely to be willing to tolerate.

    END

  • The definitive US position on Taiwan - 15 September 2007

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    SPECIAL BULLETIN

    TO: All Strategic Intelligence Forum members

    FROM: JKC de Courcy, Chairman, Strategic Intelligence Forum

    DATE: 15 September 2007

    SUBJECT: The definitive US position on Taiwan

    Taiwan is by a wide margin the world's most important flashpoint.  There is no other dispute in the world today that has such potential to spark a superpower conflict.  It is our long-held position that for all the hedging and quasi-alliance forming inspired by China's rise, there is little chance of a rigid Cold War-style alliance system emerging in Asia, still less the kind of worldwide competition that existed between the US and USSR and that even a slight miscalculation could have precipitated into conflict at almost any time.  Nevertheless, the Taiwan issue, uniquely, does have the potential to spark a military conflict between China and the United States.

    For this reason, the speech made on 11 September by Thomas J Christensen, Deputy Assistant Secretary for East Asian and Pacific Affairs warrants close reading.  Addressing the US-Taiwan Business Council Defence Industry Conference in Annapolis, Maryland, Christensen made it clear that his remarks represented "the agreed view of the United States Government".  He invited his audience to "consider my comments in that light".

    In the run-up to Taiwan’s second democratic presidential election, held in March 2000, China’s highest institution of government, the Council of State, issued a White Paper which warned: “If the Taiwan authorities indefinitely refuse to settle peacefully the question of reunification [of China], the Chinese government will be compelled to resort to the most drastic measures conceivable, including the use of force.” The document, issued on 21 February 2000, reiterated Beijing’s refusal to waive its “right” to use force to “return Taiwan to the Motherland”.

    That remains China's definitive position on Taiwan.

    From the outset, the Bush administration has sought to achieve two things with its Taiwan policy.  First, to remove any ambiguity about its willingness to defend Taiwan against Chinese coercion.  But, secondly, to stop Taiwan from provoking China by trying to move towards de jure independence.

    Having assumed the presidency, President Bush moved quickly and decisively to re-establish deterrence. His key moves were his huge April 2001 weapons package for Taiwan and his statement at the same time on nationwide television that his administration would do "whatever it takes" to defend Taiwan from a Chinese attack, both of which were strongly reinforced by the immediate post 11-September display of American willpower and firepower.

    What President Bush did with those actions was to remove all "strategic ambiguity" over Taiwan – a highly significant move given the lessons of post-War Asian history. In 1950, the Soviet- and Chinese-backed North Korean decision to invade the South was precipitated by US Secretary of State Dean Acheson’s failure, in a widely noticed speech, to include the Republic of Korea in his definition of the American "security perimeter" in Asia. Kim Il-Sung took the omission as a signal that the US would not defend South Korea – so war broke out, and three million people died.

    Since the advent of the Bush administration, Beijing will have been under no such illusion about its determination to defend Taiwan from unprovoked attack.

    More recently, however, there have been two developments that may have undermined the Bush administration's early good work on Taiwan.  The first is the failure of the US to achieve its objectives in Iraq and Afghanistan (compounded by the developing crisis over Iran's nuclear programme).  The growing weakness of the Bush administration as a result of these two failures (and the additional challenge of Iran) could be taken by Beijing as providing it with wider latitude over Taiwan.

    The second adverse development has been the willingness of Taiwan to press its case for independence more actively.

    Thomas J Christensen's 11 September speech was intended to address both questions.  He reiterated that "strategic, moral, and legal requirements compel a continuous US interest in Taiwan and its security". He recognized "the growing PRC military threat to Taiwan posed by the fast-paced military build-up opposite Taiwan and by Beijing’s refusal to rule out the use of force against Taiwan". And he urged a strong Taiwan "that maintains the military capacity to withstand coercion for an extended period of time", that is a military capacity that can prevent China subduing it before the international community can react.  For good measure, he added: "Actions speak louder than words…[and] the United States has demonstrated its rejection of any coercion of Taiwan through both its defensive arms sales to Taipei and maintenance of our capability to respond to such coercion."

    However, he was equally tough with Taiwan.  He started by saying: "We do not like having to express publicly our disagreement with the Chen administration on this or any other policy. Taiwan is a longstanding US friend, and we do not like there to be gaps between us on important issues. I can assure you that we would not have done so had we not exhausted every private opportunity through consistent, unmistakable, and authoritative messages over an extended period of time."

    He then went on to explain why the US is so opposed to President Chen's plan to hold a referendum on applying to join the UN under the name of Taiwan.  He argued that the referendum would not achieve anything concrete in terms of "expanding Taiwan’s international space", and he bluntly told Taipei that relying on the US as its defender of last resort came with obligations, namely to avoid unnecessary confrontation with China. As Christensen said, supporters of the referendum "do not take seriously Taiwan’s commitments to the United States and the international community, are willing to ignore the security interests of Taiwan’s most steadfast friend, and are ready to put at some risk the security interests of the Taiwan people for short-term political gain".

    Christensen concluded: "In terms of security, the proposition is reasonably simple: as long as Taiwan maintains a credible defensive capability, the chief threats to its welfare are political actions by Taipei itself that could trigger Beijing’s use of force."

    Some of the headlines suggesting that the speech represents a US move away from Taiwan are misplaced.  The speech provided as strong a message to Beijing as to Taipei, and it is to be hoped that both hear Washington's message.  The danger lies in the possibility that one or the other or both will prove deaf to what is a simple, sensible, and sustainable proposition.  China might not like the prospect of an indefinite prolongation of the status quo, and Taiwan might be frustrated by its strange, even unique, position in world affairs; but maintaining the status quo should be a compromise that both sides can live with for the foreseeable future - and it is only to the good that Washington has sought reinforce this point in such strong terms.

    Christensen's full speech can be downloaded from: http://www.state.gov/p/eap/rls/rm/2007/91979.htm

    END

  • Intelligence Research highlights - 7 September 2007

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    INTELLIGENCE RESEARCH HIGHLIGHTS

    TO: All Strategic Intelligence Forum members

    DATE: 7 September 2007

    The Strategic Intelligence Forum is part of the Intelligence Research group, and as a member of the Strategic Intelligence Forum I am very pleased to send you from time to time a selection of reports published recently by Intelligence Research Ltd that I consider to be of particular STRATEGIC significance. Please find below my latest selection of Intelligence Research articles:

    1. LATIN AMERICA: Neo-liberalism in Latin America: what has survived - Latin American Special Report, September 2007

    SUMMARY: The abandonment of neoliberalism in Latin America has become particularly strident since the tail-end of the 1990s, when Hugo Chávez was elected president of Venezuela. It is not, however, a new phenomenon: almost as soon as neoliberal policies - or 'reforms' as they were called by their proponents - began to be introduced, politicians began to campaign, if not for their outright rejection, at least for giving the policies "a human face". Much of the ensuing disillusionment with politics and politicians arose from neoliberalism not delivering what it had initially promised, and from the failure of critics to give it that 'human face'...

    Link to full article: http://www.latinnews.com/lsr/secure/sec.pdf

    2. COLOMBIA: Deep infiltration of military by narcos & Farc - Latin American Security & Strategic Review, August 2007

    SUMMARY: Between late July and early August the Colombian government has had to admit that its military have been seriously infiltrated by drug traffickers and guerrilla organisations for two purposes: to obtain sensitive intelligence about military operations and to recruit officers about to retire into an élite 'hit' team similar to Mexico's notorious Zetas. The investigation into the narco connection has already resulted in a wave of arrests, but the source of the intelligence leaks to the Farc does not appear to have been detected yet...

    Link to full article: http://www.latinnews.com/lss/LSS15134.asp?instance=2

    NOTE: Links to these - and other - reports can also be found in the Strategic Intelligence Monitoring Centre, which you may access on a 24/7 basis by going to www.stratintforum.com, logging in as a member, and selecting the Strategic Intelligence Monitoring Centre option.

    With best regards

    JKC de Courcy
    Chairman
    Strategic Intelligence Forum

    P.S. You may sign up for a free evaluation of any Intelligence Research Ltd services by visiting the following websites, or you may contact our Business Development Director: [email protected].

    www.intelligenceresearch.com
    www.stratintforum.com
    www.asiaint.com
    www.latinnews.com

  • Towards an India-China naval challenge - 23 June 2007

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    SPECIAL BULLETIN

    TO: All Strategic Intelligence Forum members

    FROM: JKC de Courcy, Chairman, Strategic Intelligence Forum

    DATE: 23 June 2007

    SUBJECT: Towards an India-China naval challenge

    We watch closely the proceedings of the US-China Economic and Security Review Commission, mostly because of the insights they provide into evolving US attitudes and reactions to China's rise.  The hearings on 14-15 June concerned the implications for the US of China's growing energy consumption.

    Of exceptional interest was the 14 June testimony of Professor James Holmes of the US Naval War College who highlighted the probability of an intensifying contest for maritime supremacy in the Indian Ocean between China and India.

    In his summary, Professor Holmes argues: "In all likelihood, an increasingly sea-power minded China will neither shelter passively in coastal waters nor throw itself into competition with the United States in the Pacific Ocean.  Rather, Beijing will direct its energies toward South and Southeast Asia, where supplies of oil, natural gas, and other commodities critical to China's economic development must pass."

    A number of Chinese analysts and strategists are quoted to support this proposition, with a 17 August 2005 editorial in Ming Pao providing a succinct summary of this element in Chinese strategic thinking.  The editorial argued that "whichever country controls the Indian Ocean controls East Asia".

    There are two major concerns.  First, as Holmes argues, China must first "secure the East, Yellow, and South China seas to its satisfaction", which must entail resolving the Taiwan issue in its favour as a prerequisite.  This point needs little elaboration.

    Secondly, Chinese naval ambitions in the Indian Ocean must come up against rival Indian ambitions, with India having the advantage of operating closer to home.  Holmes argues that while China-India relations have seen steady improvement since the late 1990s, any Chinese attempt to control events in the vicinity of India "would doubtless meet with Indian countermeasures".

    Holmes points out: "Like China, India discerns real, compelling interests in the Indian Ocean."  He adds, correctly and alarmingly: "Strategists in New Delhi phrase their arguments in intensely geopolitical terms - jarringly so for Westerners accustomed to the notion that economic globalisation has rendered armed conflict passé."

    The problem is compounded by an element within Chinese strategic thinking that fears the implications of India's "Look East Policy".  The Chinese scholar Hou Songlin argues that while India is for the time being content to focus on economic cooperation, it will in due course expand its eastern-oriented strategy into political and security spheres.  He says that Indian-Asean cooperation is aimed ultimately at enabling India to fulfil its "grand strategy to control the Indian Ocean, particularly the Malacca Strait".

    Although still a long way from securing its eastern maritime front, China is already (in the words of Holmes) "gradually laying the foundations of a strategic maritime infrastructure that would enhance both its economic prospects and its military access to the Indian Ocean".  It is doing this, amongst other means, by developing close ties and basing rights with Myanmar and Pakistan.

    As Holmes says: "Beijing could leverage its informal strategic alliances with Myanmar and Pakistan...to counterbalance US power, check India's rise, and monitor maritime activities carried on by these maritime competitors."

    We agree in almost all respects with this analysis.  It is clear that neither China nor India are content with the United States retaining its monopoly over the supply of "the international public good of free navigation" (as other testimony to the hearings described it), which the US has enjoyed for six decades.

    Holmes recognizes this and clearly harbours long-term fears for what this might mean for Sino-Indian relations.  His answer?  The establishment of the habit of cooperation now, while China is still vulnerable, particularly in areas such as disaster relief, maritime domain awareness, counter-terrorism, and counter-proliferation, which, he believes, "could lay the groundwork for a more durable partnership in maritime Asia, alleviating the concerns about sea-lane security that could prod China in a more ominous direction".  As Holmes concludes: "Considering the stakes, it would be worth the effort US and Indian leaders would expand in negotiating such a partnership."

    END

    The proceedings of the 14-15 June hearings on "China’s Energy Consumption and Opportunities for US-China Cooperation to Address the Effects of China’s Energy Use" can be accessed at the following link:

    http://www.uscc.gov/hearings/2007hearings/hr07_06_14_15.php

  • US Defence Secretary's annual report on China's military power - 29 May 2007

    LatinNews 08 September 2011 Hits: 3

    SPECIAL BULLETIN

    TO: All Strategic Intelligence Forum members

    FROM: JKC de Courcy, Chairman, Strategic Intelligence Forum

    DATE: 30 May 2007

    SUBJECT: US Defence Secretary's annual report on China's military power

    The US Secretary of Defence has delivered his annual report to Congress on the “Military power of the People’s Republic of China”. The 2007 report underlines the two most important elements of the early 21st century global geopolitical scene.

    China's rise

    The first is that China is continuing to match its military power to its growing economic power. Analysis of China’s military budget data and GDP data from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) for the period 1996-2006 shows average annual inflation-adjusted GDP growth of 9.2% and annual inflation-adjusted defence budget growth of 11.8%.  In March, China said that it was increasing the military budget by 17.8% in 2007 to $45bn.  And its real level of military spending could be over twice the official level, according to the Pentagon which calculates it at somewhere between $85bn and $125bn.  

    The report notes: “China’s near-term focus on preparing for military contingencies in the Taiwan Strait, including the possibility of US intervention, appears to be an important driver of modernization plans. However, analysis of China’s military acquisitions and strategic thinking suggests Beijing is also generating capabilities for other regional contingencies, such as conflict over resources or territory.”

    It adds that China’s expanding military capabilities “will increase Beijing’s options for military coercion to press diplomatic advantage, advance interests, or resolve disputes”.

    A commentary from the official Liberation Army Daily in April 2006 provides confirmation of China’s strategic thinking. It states: “As China’s comprehensive strength is incrementally mounting and her status keeps on going up in international affairs, it is a matter of great importance to strive to construct a military force that is commensurate with China’s status and up to the job of defending the interests of China’s development, so as to entrench China’s international status.”

    US resistance

    The second key geopolitical factor that the report reinforces is that the US does not consider it to be legitimate for China to develop military capabilities commensurate with its economic power, almost regardless of the nature of the regime or what its ultimate intentions might be.  Without recognizing it as such, the report does in fact point to a seemingly legitimate reason for China's developing military strength (it says that as China’s economy grows, dependence on secure access to markets and natural resources, particularly metals and fossil fuels, is an urgent strategic consideration, and “at present China can neither protect its foreign energy supplies not the routes on which they travel…”), which underlines the point that the US’s main problem is with the fact of China’s rise per se.

    A passage in the report on the European Union arms embargo provides further confirmation that the US considers increasing Chinese capabilities to be self-evidently an undesirable outcome, regardless of the purposes to which they might or might not be put. It states:

    “Lifting the EU embargo would likely contribute significantly to the PLA’s modernization goals. An end to the embargo would raise the possibility of competitive pricing for arms sales to China…Increased military-to-military exchanges consequent to arms sales resulting from lifting the embargo could also give the PLA access to critical military management practices, operational doctrine, and training. Finally, the transfer of sophisticated and dual-use technologies that China most likely desires from the EU…would advance PLA operational capabilities.”

    Subsidiary to these two main points, the report contains a number of additional insights.

    Concerns about the nature of the regime

    Although our contention is that the US would find China’s rapid rise to power almost as hard to swallow even if its regime were more acceptable to Western eyes, the report does highlight genuine concerns about the nature and stability of the present regime.

    The report states: “At the core of China’s overall strategy rests the desire to maintain the continuous rule of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP)”. It then notes that as a substitute for the failure of communist ideology, “the CCP has based its legitimacy on the twin pillars of economic performance and nationalism”, and it worries that domestic economic and social difficulties “may lead China to attempt to bolster support by stimulating nationalist sentiment which could result in more aggressive behaviour in foreign and security affairs…”

    In another section, the report again worries that “underlying structural weaknesses threaten economic growth”, and it states: “Demographic shifts and social dislocations are stressing an already weak social welfare system. Economic setbacks or downturns could lead to internal unrest, potentially giving rise to greater reliance on nationalism to maintain popular support.” Non-traditional security challenges such as HIV, bird flu, corruption, crime, and environmental problems could also “exacerbate Chinese domestic unrest and serve as sources of regional tension and instability”.

    On the military side, there are concerns that China is developing “a greater capacity for military pre-emption”, and there are continuing worries that the “no-first-use” pledge on nuclear weapons is ambiguous and subject to internal debate and evolution.

    The danger of miscalculation is also a worry. As the PLA continues its modernization, the US sees the possibility that “twin misperceptions could lead to miscalculation or crisis”. These are that other countries could underestimate the extent to which the PLA has increased its capabilities and that, in the opposite direction, China’s leaders “may overestimate the proficiency of their forces by assuming new systems are fully operational, adeptly operated, adequately maintained, and well integrated with existing or new capabilities”.

    One specific concern is that China is attempting to shift international opinion “in favour of a distorted interpretation of the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea” by moving scholarly opinion and national perspectives away from “long-accepted norms of freedom of navigation and toward interpretations of increased sovereign authority over the 200 nautical mile Exclusive Economic Zone, the airspace above it, and possibly outer space”.

    The deterrent factor and Taiwan

    On Taiwan, however, the report seems to be relatively sanguine. It worries that Taiwan has allowed its defence spending to decline in real terms, and it notes the growing and sustained Chinese military threat. On the other hand, the report is robust in restating the US’s commitment and ability “to resist any effort by Beijing to resort to force or coercion to dictate the terms of Taiwan’s future status”. And, on the Taiwan issue, it concludes:

    “China is deterred on multiple levels from taking military action against Taiwan. First, China does not yet possess the military capability to accomplish with confidence its political objectives on the island, particularly when confronted with the prospect of US intervention. Moreover, an insurgency directed against the PRC presence could tie up PLA forces for years…Beijing’s calculus would also have to factor in the potential political and economic repercussions of military conflict with Taiwan…Finally, China’s leaders recognize that a conflict over Taiwan involving the United States would give rise to a long-term hostile relationship between the two nations – a result that would not be in China’s interests.”

    END

    The full Annual Report to Congress on the "Military Power of the People's Republic of China 2007" may be downloaded from the following link:

    http://www.defenselink.mil/pubs/pdfs/070523-China-Military-Power-final.pdf

  • Intelligence Research highlights - 4 May 2007

    LatinNews 08 September 2011 Hits: 5

    INTELLIGENCE RESEARCH HIGHLIGHTS

    TO: All Strategic Intelligence Forum members

    DATE: 4 May 2007

    The Strategic Intelligence Forum is part of the Intelligence Research group, and as a member of the Strategic Intelligence Forum I am very pleased to send you from time to time a selection of reports published recently by Intelligence Research Ltd that I consider to be of particular STRATEGIC significance. Please find below my latest selection of Intelligence Research articles:

    1. LATIN AMERICA: Interstate conflict a thing of the past? - Latin American Special Report, April 2007

    SUMMARY: It has become almost a cliché that interstate armed conflict in Latin America is a thing of the past. The last war between Latin American countries (Ecuador against Peru) took place took place 22 years ago; the one before that (El Salvador against Honduras), 38 years ago. In between there were three armed confrontations involving extra-regional powers, which are usually not counted. However, the region has 18 unsettled inter-state disputes, and over the past 20 years eight of them involved sabre-rattling, deployment or use of military force. The most widely held view is that the region has found a way to contain these disputes. This report takes a hard look at this assumption...

    Link to full article: http://www.latinnews.com/lsr/secure/iscil.pdf

    2. CHINA: The illusion of liberalisation - ChinaWatch Monthly Review, May 2007

    SUMMARY: April was a month full of mixed messages regarding the government’s willingness to open up. Signs that it was ready to increase official transparency, ease censorship, and be more receptive to the public were offset by new restrictions on newspapers and the internet, evidence of continued religious repression, and an increased reliance on the use of force to quell unrest...

    Link to full article: http://www.asiaint.com/arl/arl13850.asp

    NOTE: Links to these - and other - reports can also be found in the Strategic Intelligence Monitoring Centre, which you may access on a 24/7 basis by going to www.stratintforum.com, logging in as a member, and selecting the Strategic Intelligence Monitoring Centre option.

    With best regards

    JKC de Courcy
    Chairman
    Strategic Intelligence Forum

    P.S. You may sign up for a free evaluation of any Intelligence Research Ltd services by visiting the following websites, or you may contact our Business Development Director: [email protected].

    www.intelligenceresearch.com
    www.stratintforum.com
    www.asiaint.com
    www.latinnews.com

  • Intelligence Research highlights - 30 March 2007

    LatinNews 08 September 2011 Hits: 3

    INTELLIGENCE RESEARCH HIGHLIGHTS

    TO: All Strategic Intelligence Forum members

    DATE: 30 March 2007

    The Strategic Intelligence Forum is part of the Intelligence Research group, and as a member of the Strategic Intelligence Forum I am very pleased to send you from time to time a selection of reports published recently by Intelligence Research Ltd that I consider to be of particular STRATEGIC significance. Please find below my latest selection of Intelligence Research articles:

    1. INDONESIA WRANGLES OVER IRAN - AsiaInt Weekly Alert, 30 March 2007

    SUMMARY: The government’s decision to support UN sanctions on Iran has created a political storm. Jakarta faces accusations of pandering to the West and abandoning a Muslim ally at a time when President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono’s approval ratings are at a low...

    Link to full article: http://www.asiaint.com/arl/arl13549.asp

    2. ARGENTINA: KIRCHNER PICKS FIGHT WITH US AND ARGENTINAN JUDICIARY - Latin American Weekly Review - 29 March 2007

    SUMMARY: It was an eventful week for President Néstor Kirchner and one that could potentially have a defining influence on October's presidential elections. Firstly, his government was involved in a diplomatic spat with the US for granting Venezuela's President Hugo Chávez permission to address a rally attacking George W Bush while the US President was in Uruguay. Kirchner's wife, Senator Cristina Fernández, meanwhile, was boosting her profile and cementing the government's foreign-policy priorities by visiting Ecuador and Venezuela. Secondly, Roberto Lavagna, the main threat to either Kirchner or Fernández winning the elections, at last sealed his alliance with one faction of the Unión Cívica Radical (UCR) and is now trying to unite dissident Peronists. Finally, Kirchner became embroiled in a power clash with the judiciary which, for once, stood its ground...

    Link to full article: http://www.latinnews.com/lwr/LWR13535.asp?instance=2

    NOTE: Links to these - and other - reports can also be found in the Strategic Intelligence Monitoring Centre, which you may access on a 24/7 basis by going to www.stratintforum.com, logging in as a member, and selecting the Strategic Intelligence Monitoring Centre option.

    With best regards

    JKC de Courcy
    Chairman
    Strategic Intelligence Forum

    P.S. You may sign up for a free evaluation of any Intelligence Research Ltd services by visiting the following websites, or you may contact our Business Development Director: [email protected].

    www.intelligenceresearch.com
    www.stratintforum.com
    www.asiaint.com
    www.latinnews.com

  • Intelligence Research highlights - 23 March 2007

    LatinNews 08 September 2011 Hits: 3

    INTELLIGENCE RESEARCH HIGHLIGHTS

    TO: All Strategic Intelligence Forum members

    DATE: 23 March 2007

    The Strategic Intelligence Forum is part of the Intelligence Research group, and as a member of the Strategic Intelligence Forum I am very pleased to send you from time to time a selection of reports published recently by Intelligence Research Ltd that I consider to be of particular STRATEGIC significance. Please find below my latest selection of Intelligence Research articles:

    1. TAIWAN'S LEGAL QUESTIONS - AsiaInt Political & Strategic Review, March 2007

    SUMMARY: On 4 March President Chen Shui-bian issued his strongest call yet for Taiwan to become a sovereign state. "Taiwan wants independence, wants name rectification, wants a new constitution, and wants development," Chen declared in a speech that will define the island’s political debate ahead of the legislative election in December and presidential vote in April 2008.  Should Chen’s Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) win the elections, it will see victory as a popular mandate for its increasingly radical claims for sovereignty. Whether or not this leads to a formal declaration of independence, Taiwan’s dubious political status in international law is likely to come under ever-more intense scrutiny in the coming years. China’s claim under law is not as strong as often imagined, and here we explain why...

    Link to full article: http://www.asiaint.com/arl/arl13313.asp

    2. PROSPECTS FOR REFORM IN MYANMAR - AsiaInt Political & Strategic Review, March 2007

    SUMMARY: Myanmar’s military dictatorship has reached a crossroads. Here we take a detailed look at the Burmese set-up and make some predictions as to the pariah state’s likely political trajectory...

    Link to full article: http://www.asiaint.com/arl/arl13312.asp

    3. MEXICO: CALDERON'S WARNING OVER OIL, Latin American Weekly Report, 22 March 2007

    SUMMARY: On 18 March, the 69th anniversary of the nationalisation of the country's oil industry, Mexico's President Felipe Calderón Hinojosa announced that the country's oil reserves would last for less than 10 years at the current rate of production. The rapid dwindling of the country's oil reserves and falling production has major implications for the government which gets almost 40% of its revenues from oil...

    Link to full article: http://www.latinnews.com/lwr/LWR13383.asp?instance=13

    4. BUSH'S VISIT HIGHLIGHTS MERCOSUR SCHISM, Brazil & Southern Cone Report, March 2007

    SUMMARY: The visit of US President George W Bush to Brazil and Uruguay earlier this month highlighted the schism within Mercosur, the trading bloc to which Argentina, Brazil, Paraguay, Uruguay and Venezuela belong. As Bush stepped onto Mercosur soil, the debate over trade asymmetries, which seriously undermine the economies of Mercosur's smallest members, Paraguay and Uruguay, were once again overshadowed by populist politics in Argentina and Venezuela. Meanwhile, the bloc's largest member, Brazil, vacillates between economic pragmatism and populist rhetoric...

    Link to full article: http://www.latinnews.com/lrbs/LRBS13384.asp?instance=12

    NOTE: Links to these - and other - reports can also be found in the Strategic Intelligence Monitoring Centre, which you may access on a 24/7 basis by going to www.stratintforum.com, logging in as a member, and selecting the Strategic Intelligence Monitoring Centre option.

    With best regards

    JKC de Courcy
    Chairman
    Strategic Intelligence Forum

    P.S. You may sign up for a free evaluation of any Intelligence Research Ltd services by visiting the following websites, or you may contact our Business Development Director: [email protected].

    www.intelligenceresearch.com
    www.stratintforum.com
    www.asiaint.com
    www.latinnews.com

  • Intelligence Research highlights - 1 March 2007

    LatinNews 08 September 2011 Hits: 3

    INTELLIGENCE RESEARCH HIGHLIGHTS

    TO: All Strategic Intelligence Forum members

    DATE: 1 March 2007

    The Strategic Intelligence Forum is part of the Intelligence Research group, and as a member of the Strategic Intelligence Forum I am very pleased to send you from time to time a selection of reports published recently by Intelligence Research Ltd that I consider to be of particular STRATEGIC significance. Please find below my latest selection of Intelligence Research articles:

    1. SOUTH ASIA: THE COSTS OF TERRORISM - AsiaInt Economic Intelligence Review, February 2007

    SUMMARY: The bombing of a train connecting India to Pakistan has highlighted the persistent risk of terrorism in South Asia. The tendency of the regional security establishment to assess this risk in terms of relations between India and its neighbours provides a key by which local security arrangements can be understood; not in isolation but as part of an overlapping set of concerns involved with the rationalisation of states still only 60 years old...

    Link to full article: http://www.asiaint.com/arl/arl13141.asp

    2. COLOMBIA: MERGENCE OF NEW-GENERATION PARAMILITARY, Latin American Security & Strategic Review, February 2007

    SUMMARY: While headlines in Colombia have been dominated since last November by the so-called 'parapolítica' scandal - the revelations about paramilitary penetration of the country's political and administrative establishment - a more menacing development has been taking place in the area of public security: the rearming of paramilitary groups and the appearance of new armed groups. These appear even more tightly connected to the drugs trade than the demobilised Autodefensas Unidas de Colombia (AUC). Still unclear is the extent to which the former leaders of the AUC are involved in the 'rearming' - a misnomer, since it has always been clear that the AUC did not surrender all of its weaponry...

    Link to full article: http://www.latinnews.com/lss/LSS13188.asp?instance=2

    NOTE: Links to these - and other - reports can also be found in the Strategic Intelligence Monitoring Centre, which you may access on a 24/7 basis by going to www.stratintforum.com, logging in as a member, and selecting the Strategic Intelligence Monitoring Centre option.

    With best regards

    JKC de Courcy
    Chairman
    Strategic Intelligence Forum

    P.S. You may sign up for a free evaluation of any Intelligence Research Ltd services by visiting the following websites, or you may contact our Business Development Director: [email protected].

    www.intelligenceresearch.com
    www.stratintforum.com
    www.asiaint.com
    www.latinnews.com

  • Intelligence Research highlights - 16 February 2007

    LatinNews 08 September 2011 Hits: 3

    INTELLIGENCE RESEARCH HIGHLIGHTS

    TO: All Strategic Intelligence Forum members

    DATE: 16 February 2007

    The Strategic Intelligence Forum is part of the Intelligence Research group, and as a member of the Strategic Intelligence Forum I am very pleased to send you from time to time a selection of reports published recently by Intelligence Research Ltd that I consider to be of particular STRATEGIC significance. Please find below my latest selection of Intelligence Research articles:

    1. INDO-RUSSIAN DEFENCE COOPERATION - AsiaInt Political & Strategic Review, February 2007

    SUMMARY: Russia and India are increasingly diversifying their partnership in defence matters. As the term of the 1996 agreement covering military to military cooperation expires, a new accord marks the ever-expanding ties between the Indian and Russian ministries of defence. Here we examine in detail Russia’s techniques for marketing its arms to India and the deals currently on the table...

    Link to full article: http://www.asiaint.com/arl/arl12988.asp

    2. SRI LANKA GEARS FOR WAR - AsiaInt Political & Strategic Review, February 2007

    SUMMARY: With Sri Lanka’s peace process now a thing of the past, attention has turned to the government’s preferred solution to the ethnic conflict: military victory. President Mahinda Rajapakse has created a majority coalition wedded to the idea of "peace through war", and his forces have captured a major rebel stronghold. However, this will not be enough to defeat the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE)...

    Link to full article: http://www.asiaint.com/arl/arl12992.asp

    NOTE: Links to these - and other - reports can also be found in the Strategic Intelligence Monitoring Centre, which you may access on a 24/7 basis by going to www.stratintforum.com, logging in as a member, and selecting the Strategic Intelligence Monitoring Centre option.

    With best regards

    JKC de Courcy
    Chairman
    Strategic Intelligence Forum

    P.S. You may sign up for a free evaluation of any Intelligence Research Ltd services by visiting the following websites, or you may contact our Business Development Director: [email protected].

    www.intelligenceresearch.com
    www.stratintforum.com
    www.asiaint.com
    www.latinnews.com

  • Intelligence Research highlights - 26 January 2007

    LatinNews 08 September 2011 Hits: 3

    INTELLIGENCE RESEARCH HIGHLIGHTS

    TO: All Strategic Intelligence Forum members

    DATE: 26 January 2007

    The Strategic Intelligence Forum is part of the Intelligence Research group, and as a member of the Strategic Intelligence Forum I am very pleased to send you from time to time a selection of reports published recently by Intelligence Research Ltd that I consider to be of particular STRATEGIC significance. Please find below my latest selection of Intelligence Research articles:

    1. INTENSIFYING SINO-SOVIET RIVALRY - China Watch Weekly Briefing, 26 January 2007

    SUMMARY: The motive for China’s anti-satellite missile test was explained succinctly by the Hong Kong newspaper Wen Wei Po on 24 January. Quoting a Chinese foreign ministry spokesman, the paper said that "what is really worrying is the US hegemonic attempt to singly dominate outer space". The paper accused the US of "cherishing the hegemonic mentality of allowing itself to burn down houses while forbidding others even to light lamps". This is, indeed, the crux of the matter...

    Link to full article: http://www.asiaint.com/arl/arl12861.asp

    2. MEXICO: GOVERNMENT EXTRADITES DRUG BARONS TO US - Latin American Weekly Report, 25 January 2007

    SUMMARY: The government extradited 15 drug gangsters to the US on 19 and 20 January. The move was heavily applauded in the US, first by officials leading the war on drugs and then by President George W Bush himself, who rewarded President Felipe Calderón Hinojosa with a congratulatory 15 minute telephone call. The Mexican government itself fears that the initiative may be costly in the short term as the drug gangs retaliate...

    Link to full article: http://www.latinnews.com/lwr/LWR12831.asp?instance=8

    NOTE: Links to these - and other - reports can also be found in the Strategic Intelligence Monitoring Centre, which you may access on a 24/7 basis by going to www.stratintforum.com, logging in as a member, and selecting the Strategic Intelligence Monitoring Centre option.

    With best regards

    JKC de Courcy
    Chairman
    Strategic Intelligence Forum

    P.S. You may sign up for a free evaluation of any Intelligence Research Ltd services by visiting the following websites, or you may contact our Business Development Director: [email protected].

    www.intelligenceresearch.com
    www.stratintforum.com
    www.asiaint.com
    www.latinnews.com

  • Intelligence Research highlights - 19 January 2007

    LatinNews 08 September 2011 Hits: 7

    INTELLIGENCE RESEARCH HIGHLIGHTS

    TO: All Strategic Intelligence Forum members

    DATE: 19 January 2007

    The Strategic Intelligence Forum is part of the Intelligence Research group, and as a member of the Strategic Intelligence Forum I am very pleased to send you from time to time a selection of reports published recently by Intelligence Research Ltd that I consider to be of particular STRATEGIC significance. Please find below my latest selection of Intelligence Research articles:

    1. CHINA'S MILITARY PLANS - AsiaInt Political & Strategic Review, January 2007

    SUMMARY: There appears to be a gap between China’s stated military intentions and its actual deployments. The country’s 2006 defence white paper, released in late December, said China "will not engage in any arms race or pose a military threat to any other country" but, "committed to peace, development, and cooperation, China pursues a road of peaceful development and endeavours". Such words are clearly designed to assuage foreign concerns, particularly those of the US, but what constitutes Chinese national defence is poorly identified and has previously been subject to some liberal definitions...

    Link to full article: http://www.asiaint.com/arl/arl12631.asp

    2. INDONESIA'S LAW ON TERROR - AsiaInt Political & Strategic Review, January 2007

    SUMMARY: Following the acquittal of Abu Bakar Bashir by Indonesia’s Supreme Court, doubts have resurfaced regarding Indonesia’s capacity to clamp down on Islamist terrorism. Former president Megawati Sukarnoputri and current president Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono have been praised by Western powers for committing to the war on terrorism. But the failure to find a long-term conviction in this cause célèbre case and uphold guilty verdicts against Bashir, allegedly the spiritual leader of Jemaah Islamiah (JI), demands a closer look at Indonesia’s anti-terror legislation...

    Link to full article: http://www.asiaint.com/arl/arl12638.asp

    NOTE: Links to these - and other - reports can also be found in the Strategic Intelligence Monitoring Centre, which you may access on a 24/7 basis by going to www.stratintforum.com, logging in as a member, and selecting the Strategic Intelligence Monitoring Centre option.

    With best regards

    JKC de Courcy
    Chairman
    Strategic Intelligence Forum

    P.S. You may sign up for a free evaluation of any Intelligence Research Ltd services by visiting the following websites, or you may contact our Business Development Director: [email protected].

    www.intelligenceresearch.com
    www.stratintforum.com
    www.asiaint.com
    www.latinnews.com

  • Intelligence Research highlights - 12 January 2007

    LatinNews 08 September 2011 Hits: 3

    INTELLIGENCE RESEARCH HIGHLIGHTS

    TO: All Strategic Intelligence Forum members

    DATE: 12 January 2007

    The Strategic Intelligence Forum is part of the Intelligence Research group, and as a member of the Strategic Intelligence Forum I am very pleased to send you from time to time a selection of reports published recently by Intelligence Research Ltd that I consider to be of particular STRATEGIC significance. Please find below my latest selection of Intelligence Research articles:

    1. CHINA'S ECONOMY: LOOKING AHEAD TO 2007 - China Watch Monthly Review, January 2007

    SUMMARY: It's prediction time again...

    Link to full article: http://www.asiaint.com/arl/arl12570.asp

    2. VENEZUELA: 21ST CENTURY SOCIALISM - Latin American Regional Report: Andean Group, January 2007

    SUMMARY: With an oath adapted from Simon Bolivar himself, President Hugo Chavez's 27 cabinet ministers were sworn in on 8 January promising “not to rest arms or soul in the construction of a Venezuelan path towards socialism”. Socialism was the key word during the ceremony, which preceded by two days Chavez's own inauguration and finally set out, in a clearer fashion, some of the president's plans for his next period in office. In the end, Chavez's definition of "21st Century Socialism" was far more radical than most analysts expected...

    Link to full article: http://www.latinnews.com/lra/LRA12573.asp?instance=4

    NOTE: Links to these - and other - reports can also be found in the Strategic Intelligence Monitoring Centre, which you may access on a 24/7 basis by going to www.stratintforum.com, logging in as a member, and selecting the Strategic Intelligence Monitoring Centre option.

    With best regards

    JKC de Courcy
    Chairman
    Strategic Intelligence Forum

    P.S. You may sign up for a free evaluation of any Intelligence Research Ltd services by visiting the following websites, or you may contact our Business Development Director: [email protected].

    www.intelligenceresearch.com
    www.stratintforum.com
    www.asiaint.com
    www.latinnews.com

  • The 'resurrection' of the Russian secret services - 4 January 2007

    LatinNews 08 September 2011 Hits: 3

    SPECIAL BULLETIN

    TO: All Strategic Intelligence Forum members

    FROM: JKC de Courcy, Chairman, Strategic Intelligence Forum

    DATE: 4 January 2007

    SUBJECT: The 'resurrection' of the Russian secret services

    On 6 December, the editor of Strategic Intelligence Review, Alex Standish, gave a speech at the European Union parliament on the subject of the Russian secret services.  The following is a full text of this important speech:

    FULL TEXT OF SPEECH:

    The ‘resurrection’ of the Russian secret services

    Members of the European Parliament, ladies and gentlemen, it is both an honour and a pleasure to be invited to speak today. In particular, I should like to thank Prof. Schöpflin and his staff for organising this opportunity for a discussion about a subject which has become, in many circles today, a political taboo.

    Who could have imagined, when the subject of this session was announced, that we would be meeting in the shadow of the controversy unleashed by the recent tragic death of Alex ander Litvinenko – and amid widespread international media speculation that the former KGB officer was assassinated and, if so, by whom?

    When I received the invitation to participate in this debate, I must admit that the title caught my eye. The term ‘Afterlife’ suggests that there has been a death. But, as I will explain today, my view is that the ‘old’ Soviet-era Committee for State Security (the KGB) never died.

    True, it has changed – in some outward respects at least – beyond recognition. In fact, the Russian secret services resemble an organism that has mutated, shrivelled in the powerful glare of democracy; but then regrouped, expanded and re-generated. Like some horrendous monster from a second-rate horror movie it has returned from the grave to haunt us.

    Despite there being a time when many – both within and outside Russia – had genuinely believed that the power of the KGB and its associated structures had been fatally wounded, we are now confronted with the realisation that behind the changes of name; behind the façade of a modern democratically accountable state service, many of the values, aims, objectives and practices of the old Soviet-era have been resurrected – or perhaps more accurately, revitalised and refinanced, and in some instances, former KGB agents re-recruited.

    But how could it have been otherwise? What did we really expect? After all, for decades, the KGB and its allied intelligence and security services had performed the assigned role of the watchdog of the Soviet state. Alert to dissent and treachery within; monitoring and acting against the Kremlin’s enemies abroad, there can be no doubt that the KGB played a major role in sustaining the Soviet empire for generations.

    Back in July 2000, I wrote my first editorial on the then-recently inaugurated President of Russia, Vladimir Putin. I entitled this article What is Putin’s game?

    I took the title from a reference by Putin himself, contained in a document he published in December 1999 entitled Russia at the Turn of the Millennium, to the role of the Russian state authorities going beyond simply “establishing the rules of the game” for the economy.

    In my editorial, I highlighted what I believed would be the new president’s key priorities. These included:

    • New foreign policy priorities – which I warned would force the West to step up its own intelligence operations in response
    • The launch of a new counter-terrorism strategy (this was, of course, long before the events of 9/11)
    • A re-centralisation of power away from elected regional governors
    • An anti-corruption crackdown aimed at the leading oligarchs, particularly those behind media empires
    • A new economic policy focusing on “a strong state”

    I concluded the article, by making the following observation:

    It remains to be seen whether Putin will be able to play his game with equal success on all fronts. It is certain that he is a much more skilful operator than his ailing predecessor, but in confronting Russia ’s wide range of problems, the new president may have to use all the tricks he learned as a career officer in the Soviet KGB.

    Even with the benefit of hindsight, I do not believe that I would revise the key points that I made in 2000. Of course, although one might have suspected it, given Mr Putin’s KGB pedigree, it was still too early to speculate publicly about his personal nostalgia for the Soviet Union and its empire of captive nations. In fact, we had to wait until his April 2005 State of the Nation address before Vladimir Vladimirovich finally permitted the mask to slip when he shared with Russia , and the world, his conviction that the collapse of the Soviet Union was “the greatest geopolitical catastrophe” of the 20th century.

    Staggering as that admission might seem to many of us here – and to the millions of victims of Soviet oppression – I think that President Putin was telling us the truth. He does genuinely believe that the disintegration of the old USSR was a tragedy, a disaster and – indeed – to use his own words “a catastrophe”.

    I don’t think that we should underestimate the importance of that defining moment in Putin’s presidency. His State of the Nation address reveals a world-view that is markedly different from his pronouncements at the beginning of his rise to power. Back in December 1999, writing of Communism he referred to “the outrageous price our country and its people had to pay for that social experiment.” He added that Communism was “a blind alley, far away from the mainstream of civilisation.”

    Again, back in 2000, he was still keen to portray himself as a modest, even simple, civil servant. I’m reminded of a summary he is supposed to have given of his life and career to the authors of the shamelessly hagiographic portrait of the new president, published in English under the title of First Person. According to Putin:

    In fact, I have had a very simple life. Everything is an open book.

    I finished school and went to university.

    I graduated from university and went to the KGB.

    I finished the KGB and went back to university.

    After university, I went to work for Sobchak.

    From Sobchak, to Moscow , and to the General Department.

    Then to the Presidential Administration.

    From there to the FSB.

    Then I was appointed Prime Minister.

    Now I’m Acting President. That’s it!

    A masterpiece of under-statement. In fact, First Person was part of Putin’s own election campaign material. Recruited into the KGB from university in 1975, Putin spent the first decade of his career in the Soviet Union , followed by five years based in East Germany . He only resigned from the security service in the summer of 1991 – that is following a 16-year career – but was then appointed to head the ‘new’ Russian security service, the FSB, from July 1998 until August 1999.

    So, why is Putin’s career as a KGB officer so significant in understanding the resurrection of Russia ’s secret services? The answer lies in the fact that Russia ’s president was a loyal Soviet official throughout the first 16-years of his working life. There is no evidence of any dissidence, any act which might suggest an independence of mind, no doubt of the rightness of his professional duty. To give him due credit, in the course of the interviews on which First Person was based, Putin admitted this:

    For better or worse, I was never a dissident.

    Indeed he was not… In fact, his career in the KGB progressed steadily, if unspectacularly. Describing his own activities whilst working in the Soviet KGB based in the German Democratic Republic, Putin provides a neat summary of the role of any foreign intelligence service:

    The usual intelligence activities: recruiting sources of information, obtaining information, analyzing it, and sending it to Moscow . I looked for information about political parties, the tendencies inside these parties, their leaders. I examined today’s leaders and the possible leaders of tomorrow and the promotion of people to certain posts in the government. It was important to know who was doing what and how, what was going on in the Foreign Ministry of a particular country, how they were constructing their policy on certain issues and in various areas of the world, and how our partners would react in disarmament talks. Of course, in order to obtain such information, you need sources. So recruitment of sources, procurement of information, and assessment and analysis were big parts of the job. It was very routine work.

    In many ways, Vladimir Vladimirovich was the ideal Soviet secret service man. Unhesitatingly loyal to the Soviet Union , hardworking and with a distinctly conventional personal life, he had no moral qualms about his professional activities, whether these involved suppressing dissident activities in Leningrad or in persuading foreign citizens to betray their own countries.

    In fact, very different from the late Aleksandr Zinovyev’s concept of the Homo Sovieticus – the Soviet Man. In Putin we see no evidence of the indifference and resigned, if often resentful, acceptance of Soviet norms, corruption and injustices. He was a true KGB man who appears to have thrived in the foreign service.

    Perhaps that is why the collapse of the Soviet Union came as such a bitter blow. For Putin this would have appeared as the “greatest geopolitical catastrophe”. Everything to which he had devoted his professional life was falling apart before his eyes.

    The mutation of the KGB

    One of the early victims of the post-Soviet era was the KGB. From its foundation as the Cheka by Lenin in 1917, the Soviet security apparatus had a variety of names, but two key functions – the defence of the Soviet state and the promotion of its interests abroad. And it carried out these tasks with singular loyalty.

    Its range of activities included espionage abroad and counter-espionage. It was also responsible for the elimination of ‘anti-Soviet’ individuals; for monitoring and suppressing dissent and ‘ideological subversion’ (a specific task for the infamous Fifth Directorate of the KGB), as well as protecting Soviet leaders and institutions. Its frontier police maintained the security of the Soviet borders, while the so-called Service A prepared and disseminated disinformation.

    The influence of the KGB was arguably at its height under its longest serving Chairman, Yuri Andropov, who headed the service from 1967 until 1982 when he succeeded Leonid Brezhnev as General Secretary of the CPSU, a post he held until his death in 1984.

    Then, in the aftermath of the August coup d’etat against Mikhail Gorbachev in 1991, during which KGB Chairman Vladimir Kryuchkov played a leading role, the organisation was apparently dissolved, ceasing to exist on 6 November 1991 .

    If there was a point at which the Russian security service is supposed to have died… this was it. However, as we now know, what really happened was a largely cosmetic restructuring. Most of the KGB’s assets and functions were transferred to renamed agencies. The Foreign Intelligence Service (SVR) was created officially in October 1991 and has taken over the role and activities previously assigned to the KGB’s First Directorate.

    Meanwhile, the Russian Federal Security Service (FSB) is responsible for domestic security, counter-intelligence and counter-terrorism, as well as combating organised crime and the narcotics trade. These functions were formerly carried out by the KGB’s Second, Third, Fifth and Seventh Directorates. Between 1991 and 1995, the service was known as the FSK (Federal Counter-intelligence Service). In July 1998, Putin became the head of the FSB.

    Of course, no-one seriously expects any modern state to simply dissolve its intelligence and security services. The key issue is the extent to which the operations of such agencies are regulated and accountable within a legislative framework.

    And the obvious question that follows is to what extent do the SVR and the FSB carry out legitimate activities, to what extent are they used by the Kremlin to further Russia’s agenda at home and abroad and whether they represent a real and present danger to foreign countries, particularly European Union and NATO member states?

    Putin’s objectives

    At the beginning of this presentation, I focused on Vladimir Putin’s own career as a KGB officer. I believe that this is highly relevant to achieving an insight into the role of the Russian security and intelligence services since his election as president in 2000. If we examine the state of Russia on the eve of Putin’s rise to power, we can better understand his role and significance in the resurrection of the security services.

    We cannot ignore the fact that the Yeltsin era was a period of severe upheaval, involving economic and social dislocation. Russia was faced with the reality of having lost an empire, without having found an alternative role. With the economy in turmoil, the standard of living for many ordinary Russians was in serious decline.

    The Russian security services were also facing a major crisis, both of identity and of funding. For example, during 1991, the SVR is known to have deployed just one officer in London, based at the Russian embassy – perhaps the lowest level of Russian intelligence service representation in Great Britain since diplomatic relations were restored after the British government finally recognised the Soviet Union in 1924. In contrast, within three years of Putin’s election as president, this number had risen to at least 33 and an even higher number is being quoted today by intelligence analysts.

    Rebuilding Russia ’s international influence – and its foreign intelligence service – has been a major strategic objective for President Putin. Indeed, I would argue that in almost every aspect of Russia ’s relations with those states still within the CIS, with former Soviet republics and with those countries which were formerly part of either the Warsaw Pact or COMECON, the revamped intelligence services are playing a major role.

    For example, there has been evidence of Russian intelligence service activity during every recent parliamentary and/or presidential election in countries which Moscow considers to be within its own sphere of influence: Ukraine was perhaps the most blatant case, but Russian ‘election advisers’ and ‘campaign workers’ are being deployed (and bankrolled) via the Russian intelligence services.

    However, more traditional areas of intelligence service activity are not being neglected under Putin. Disinformation campaigns and the dissemination of propaganda is again being undertaken. Other activities including stirring up domestic discontent and fuelling of ethnic divisions in states perceived to be too pro-Western.

    Moreover, the Russian intelligence services have been particularly active in infiltrating the intelligence and security agencies of new member states of both the EU and NATO. In late 2002 and early 2003, I played a supporting role in highlighting the risks associated with continuing to have Vladimir Mitro, a Soviet-trained intelligence officer, in post as director of Slovakia ’s intelligence service, the SIS. Mitro had been recruited by the former Czechoslovak communist regime and received his training during the 1970s when Czechoslovakia was undergoing a period of Moscow-imposed ‘normalisation’ following the Soviet invasion that crushed the Prague Spring in 1968.

    In common with several post-communist intelligence services, Slovakia ’s continued to recruit extensively from among former members of the Communist-era secret police, the StB – which was, of course, completely controlled during the Soviet-era by the KGB. Mitro was only the most blatant case of a former Communist secret police officer being installed as the head of the intelligence service in a state that was a member both of NATO and of the European Union. After a three month long battle fought both in the international and domestic media, Mr Mitro resigned in March 2003.

    Why is this case – and others like it – so crucial? The key issue is that individuals who served within the Communist intelligence agencies did so with the assent of Moscow . Loyalty to their own nations was secondary to the requirement for loyalty to the Soviet Union . And to ensure that this was the case, the KGB ‘insurance policy’ was to collect potentially compromising material – known colloquially in Russian intelligence circles as ‘kompromat’ – which might be useful in ensuring an individual’s continued loyalty to Moscow . Needless to say, those files remain available to the FSB and the SVR.

    For that reason, the continued employment, or re-employment – of former members of Communist secret police services greatly increases the risk of such an individual being pressured. In my opinion, it is a risk too great for any independent state to take. Of course, this problem is not limited to former secret policemen. Similarly, some politicians may be vulnerable to pressure being exerted from Moscow .

    Another cause for mounting concern is the often close ties which are believed to exist between the Russian intelligence services and organised crime groups, both in Russia and abroad. These links, by their very nature, are difficult to quantify. However, it is known that after the KGB was officially disbanded in 1991, a number of former officers sought alternative routes to influence, in addition to amassing personal wealth.

    Moreover, Russian criminals active abroad in the diaspora are well placed to provide information to Putin’s intelligence service. Such ties can also provide invaluable access to fresh kompromat and as a means of applying pressure through blackmail. And if anyone doubts just how useful such links can be, one only has to point to the criminal enclave that is Moldova ’s breakaway region of Transdniester to see evidence of how Russian support for Tiraspol is being used as a political strategy.

    The results of Moscow ’s political patronage of this rogue regime are evident. As the European Parliament's delegation to Moldova observed in 2002, Transdniester is “a black hole in which illegal trade in arms, the trafficking in human beings and the laundering of criminal finance was carried on”.

    History and perceptions

    One of Vladimir Putin’s principal achievements in respect of his country’s security services is that he has made significant progress in his aim of re-interpreting (indeed, re-writing) the history of the KGB. According to the ‘Putin version’ of events, the KGB was a patriotic, loyal organisation which defended the Soviet Union against its enemies, internal and external. As an intrinsic and loyal member of the KGB himself, it is hardly likely that Putin could admit any other interpretation.

    It is important to note that in his December 1999 analysis of Russia ’s position on the eve of the Millennium mentioned earlier, he criticised the economic failures of the Communist system, but never the actual security organs of state ultimately responsible for the enforcement of the “social experiment” that he acknowledges failed. In particular, there is no room for criticism of the KGB or its methods. This would not be acceptable in Putin’s version of Soviet history.

    Amid the continuing rise of Russian nationalism – a sentiment that is being shamelessly manipulated for domestic consumption – the FSB is portrayed as an honourable service, dedicated to protecting Russia from its enemies. This portrayal is almost identical to the propaganda used during the Soviet era to justify the activities of the NKVD and later the KGB. Naturally, Putin’s version of history omits the crucial fact that the vast majority of the KGB’s victims were ordinary Russian citizens.

    Recent targets include foreign organisations based in Russia and Russian NGOs with foreign links. As is well known, independent broadcast media in Russia is effectively gone. Even academics and journalists – favoured targets for the old KGB - are being prosecuted for ‘treason’ or espionage, or else they are killed. Of course, there are many theories as to the motives behind the deaths of Litvinenko and Anna Politkovskaya. I don’t propose to add to the current speculation. Perhaps it is enough to observe that I am not optimistic those responsible will ever be identified or brought to justice.

    Conclusions

    I should like to conclude with a brief summary of my views. I think that it is difficult to speak of an ‘afterlife’ of the Communist secret police. Although there has been some change of personnel and a very successful re-branding of the KGB, I believe that the essential characteristics of the modern Russian intelligence and security services remain the same. Under a president with the biography of Vladimir Putin, I do not see how it could have been any different.

    The real challenge for both the West and those states within the so-called ‘near abroad’ is to have the political vision to refocus on the danger posed by the massive increase in Russian intelligence service activity within their borders. The war against terrorism is one of the greatest gifts the West has offered Putin. Not only has it enabled him to justify repressive policies within the Russian Federation , but it has led Western governments to reorient their own intelligence services towards the threat – a genuine threat – posed by Islamic extremism. This in turn, has led to a substantial cut in resources and personnel away from counter-espionage.

    In the warm glow of the expected ‘peace dividend’ when the Soviet Union disintegrated, there was an optimistic conviction that Russia no longer posed a significant threat to the West. Counter-espionage budgets were cut, intelligence services were downsized and experienced Soviet analysis retired or laid off. Even when Putin – and the entourage in the shadows behind him – came to power, there was much wishful thinking and the hope that Vladimir Vladimirovich was a man with whom we could do business.

    That honeymoon period is now long over and in its place we have greater realism about Russia and its strategic objective of regaining Great Power status. We also need to recognise that the Russian intelligence services are a key component of the Kremlin’s broader strategy and are increasingly active in subversion, espionage, the recruitment of a fresh generation of intelligence assets and the re-activation of older agents. Propaganda, disinformation, the manipulation of the media, stirring up of ethnic and nationalist tensions and the gathering of kompromat for the purposes of blackmail are all potent tools in the hands of the SVR and the FSB. Democracies, east and west, ignore these threats at their peril.

    Thank you

    Alex Standish
    Editor, Strategic Intelligence Review
    6 December 2006

  • Intelligence Research highlights - 22 December 2006

    LatinNews 08 September 2011 Hits: 4

    INTELLIGENCE RESEARCH HIGHLIGHTS

    TO: All Strategic Intelligence Forum members

    DATE: 22 December 2006

    The Strategic Intelligence Forum is part of the Intelligence Research group, and as a member of the Strategic Intelligence Forum I am very pleased to send you from time to time a selection of reports published recently by Intelligence Research Ltd that I consider to be of particular STRATEGIC significance.  Please find below my latest selection of Intelligence Research articles:

    1. WHAT DO THIS YEAR'S ELECTIONS IN LATIN AMERICA SHOW? - Latin American Economy & Business, December 2006

    SUMMARY: After 13 elections in Latin America in the last 12 months there are few general conclusions that apply for the whole region. It is not true to say that the region is swinging left; the powerful leftwing challenger in Mexico, Andrés Manuel López Obrador, failed; the radical in Peru, Ollanta Humala, failed to appeal to the urban working class in Lima; and the leftwing challenge in Colombia went nowhere. What this year's elections demonstrated were five points. Each point supports the contention that Latin America is becoming more politically stable and more predictable...

    Link to full article: http://www.latinnews.com/leb/LEB12427.asp?instance=1

    2. INDIA'S ENERGY NEEDS: IS NUCLEAR ENOUGH? - AsiaInt Economic Intelligence Review, December 2006

    SUMMARY: India is now a de facto member of a very exclusive group. Due to a unilateral decision by the US government to ignore the provisions of the Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), which prevents nuclear trade with non-signatories, India will soon be counted alongside the US, UK, China, Russia, and France as an established nuclear-power. The decision comes at a providential moment for its energy sector...

    Link to full article: http://www.asiaint.com/arl/arl12439.asp

    NOTE: Links to these - and other - reports can also be found in the Strategic Intelligence Monitoring Centre, which you may access on a 24/7 basis by going to www.stratintforum.com, logging in as a member, and selecting the Strategic Intelligence Monitoring Centre option.

    With best regards

    JKC de Courcy
    Chairman
    Strategic Intelligence Forum

    P.S. You may sign up for a free evaluation of any Intelligence Research Ltd services by visiting the following websites, or you may contact our Business Development Director: [email protected].

    www.intelligenceresearch.com
    www.stratintforum.com
    www.asiaint.com
    www.latinnews.com

  • Turkmenistan after Niyazov: perils of instability - 22 December 2006

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    SPECIAL BULLETIN

    TO: All Strategic Intelligence Forum members

    FROM: Alex Standish, Editor, Strategic Intelligence Review

    DATE: 22 December 2006

    SUBJECT: Turkmenistan after Niyazov: perils of instability

    The death yesterday of Turkmenistan ’s mercurial dictator President Saparmurat Niyazov (the self-proclaimed ‘Turkmenbashi’ or father of Turkmens’) brings to an end the personal rule of a man who had created one of the world’s most bizarre personality cults. A notorious abuser of human rights who had ruled the former Soviet republic like a private fiefdom, Niyazov has failed to groom a chosen successor, raising the prospect of an impending power struggle in the energy-rich Central Asian state.

    There are a number of key concerns:

    1. Turkmenistan possesses the world’s fourth largest reserves of natural gas, as well as significant oil resources. It is also the tenth largest producer of cotton.

    2. Russia has major strategic interests in the country, with state-controlled energy giant Gazprom handling the largest share – over 60% - of Turkmenistan ’s gas exports.

    3. Moscow has every reason to interfere in the selection of Niyazov’s successor in order to install a more pliable leader than the Turkmenbashi

    4. Instability, particularly a civil conflict, could have a serious impact on energy production and exports, with the potential to hit supplies to European consumers.

    SERIOUS RISKS

    Turkmenistan is entering uncharted political territory. Unlike most other former Soviet republics, it has never experienced any form of government other than authoritarian one-party rule – formerly by the Soviet Communist Party and latterly by Niyazov, President for Life, who ruled the country since 1985. Having been a loyal Soviet puppet, Niyazov took advantage of the disintegration of the Soviet Union in 1991 to become president and then impose his own increasingly eccentric form of Stalinism. Some critics have described the country as being akin to “ North Korea in Central Asia ”.

    One key concern is that despite the rigid structure of the one party state established by the ‘Turkmenbashi’ there is no obvious successor. Although Niyazov acknowledged publicly that he was suffering from heart disease earlier this year, he left no heir and although the acting leader will be the deputy premier Kurbanguly Berdymukhamedov, few people have ever heard of him and it is thought unlikely that he will take the place of the late president.

    MOSCOW ’S ROLE

    Although Niyazov handed control of a substantial sector of his nation’s energy resources to Gazprom, he was at least capable of independent action on occasion. In September he even threatened to turn off gas supplies to the Russian energy giant following a dispute over the amount Moscow was willing to pay him. This act of defiance led to a rise in payments from $65 per 1,000 cubic metres to $100.

    As part of the Kremlin’s increasingly centralist strategy towards energy supplies throughout the region, Moscow will be keen to ensure that there is no popular revolution against Niyazov’s one party state, particularly fearing that a more pro-Western leadership could threaten Gazprom’s economic influence in Turkmenistan . For this reason, there are concerns that Moscow will actively interfere in the process of selecting a replacement leader.

    There is little, if any internal opposition to challenge Niyazov’s legacy. Political opponents and critics were ruthlessly suppressed and most of Turkmenistan ’s pro-democracy campaigners are either in exile, in prison or dead. There is no independent media or rival political parties. However, with the prospect of an end in sight to the Turkmenbashi’s bizarre personality cult may lead to a rise in popular discontent, offering the possibility that his Stalinist regime could crumble.

    Although Turkmenistan is a predominantly Muslim nation, the regime has kept a tight control over religious groups. An estimated 70% of the population are Sunni Muslims, with Shias accounting for a further 20%. Despite his own Communist heritage, after independence Niyazov required that Islam was taught in schools. However, all religious leaders and teachers have been carefully vetted to ensure loyalty to the regime which has been keen to prevent the development of any kind of Islamic political movements.

    Several Islamic leaders have been dismissed from their posts, including the former Chief Mufti Nasrullah ibn Ibadullah, an ethnic Uzbek, who was sacked in 2003 before being imprisoned for 22 years in March 2004 on charges of allegedly plotting the assassination of the Turkmenbashi. Niyazov also promoted discrimination against Shia Muslims. Although there has been little evidence to date, a future resurgence of Islam – including the risk of rising fundamentalism – cannot be ruled out.

    Despite his appalling record on human rights and his openly anti-democratic stance, US criticism of Niyazov was muted in recent years owing to his regime’s support for the ‘international war on terror’ and the granting of overflight rights and refuelling facilities for US military aircraft. However, speculation that permission might be given to establish US military bases was denied by the regime.

    CONCLUSION

    At present, there is little reliable information about who will succeed Niyazov, and there is the potential for future instability, particularly if whoever replaces the man once known as the ‘iron ruler’ of Turkmenistan is too weak to hold together a regime which has largely squandered its energy revenues on grandiose projects celebrating the Turkmenbashi while much of the country faces poverty. Should the current regime lose its grip on public order – or be challenged by pro-democracy activists currently in exile, continued stability cannot be taken for granted.

    At the same time as Moscow is actively seeking to install a puppet successor, the West may consider that the time has come to support movements for democratic and economic reform. The Kremlin will view such moves as part of a wider Washington-backed plot to boost the US ’s own influence in Central Asia . Moreover, Turkmenistan ’s vast energy resources and Gazprom’s controlling interest in the country’s gas production and distribution networks means that it must be expected that any moves towards liberalisation will be opposed by Moscow .

    Although the West would like to see an end to the repressive Stalinist cult of the Turkmenbashi, there are wider concerns about future instability, particularly as any disruption of energy production could have a knock-on impact on European gas supplies. Equally, any upsurge in Islamist militancy would also be viewed with grave misgivings. On the other hand, a pliable pro-Moscow leader could open the way for even greater Russian involvement in Turkmenistan – a state the Kremlin considers to be very much in its sphere of influence.

    END

  • Intelligence Research highlights - 15 December 2006

    LatinNews 08 September 2011 Hits: 6

    INTELLIGENCE RESEARCH HIGHLIGHTS

    TO: All Strategic Intelligence Forum members

    DATE: 15 December 2006

    The Strategic Intelligence Forum is part of the Intelligence Research group, and as a member of the Strategic Intelligence Forum I am very pleased to send you from time to time a selection of reports published recently by Intelligence Research Ltd that I consider to be of particular STRATEGIC significance.

    Links to these - and other - reports can also be found in the Strategic Intelligence Monitoring Centre, which you may access on a 24/7 basis by going to www.stratintforum.com, logging in as a member, and selecting the Strategic Intelligence Monitoring Centre option.

    Please find below my latest selection of Intelligence Research articles:

    1.  CHINA-US TIES TO GROW CHILLY, NOT COLD - China Watch Weekly Briefing, 15 December 2006

    SUMMARY: It has been a general assumption of this service that a Cold War-style competition between the United States and China is unlikely because of the significant differences that exist between early-21st Century China and the Soviet Union of the mid-20th Century. We continue to maintain that view, but the fourth annual report to Congress of the US-China Economic and Security Review Commission - published last month - suggests that a less-than-friendly rivalry between the US and China is inevitable...

    Link to full article: : http://www.asiaint.com/arl/arl12417.asp

    2.  MEDDLING IN BANGLADESH - AsiaInt Political & Strategic Review, December 2006

    SUMMARY: Bangladesh goes to the polls in January amid an extraordinary amount of foreign attention. Emissaries from across the Western world and beyond have descended on the country with one apparent goal: to prevent the ruling party gaining power for another five years...

    Link to full article: http://www.asiaint.com/arl/arl12383.asp

    With best regards

    JKC de Courcy
    Chairman
    Strategic Intelligence Forum

    P.S. You may sign up for a free evaluation of any Intelligence Research Ltd services by visiting the following websites, or you may contact our Business Development Director: [email protected].

    www.intelligenceresearch.com
    www.stratintforum.com
    www.asiaint.com
    www.latinnews.com

  • Intelligence Research highlights - 8 December 2006

    LatinNews 08 September 2011 Hits: 3

    INTELLIGENCE RESEARCH HIGHLIGHTS

    TO: All Strategic Intelligence Forum members

    DATE: 7 December 2006

    The Strategic Intelligence Forum is part of the Intelligence Research group, and as a member of the Strategic Intelligence Forum I am very pleased to send you from time to time a selection of reports published recently by Intelligence Research Ltd that I consider to be of particular STRATEGIC significance.

    Links to these - and other - reports can also be found in the Strategic Intelligence Monitoring Centre, which you may access on a 24/7 basis by going to www.stratintforum.com, logging in as a member, and selecting the Strategic Intelligence Monitoring Centre option.

    Please find below my latest selection of Intelligence Research articles:

    The pro-Chavez camp gains two new members: http://www.latinnews.com/lss/LSS12227.asp?instance=1 - Latin American Security & Strategic Review, November 2006

    Putting China's nuclear threat in perspective: http://www.asiaint.com/arl/arl12217.asp - China Watch Weekly Briefing, 1 December 2006

    China: Do the yuan's gains matter?: http://www.asiaint.com/arl/arl12264.asp - China Watch Monthly Review, December 2006

    With best regards

    JKC de Courcy
    Chairman
    Strategic Intelligence Forum

    P.S.  You may sign up for a free evaluation of any Intelligence Research Ltd services by visiting the following websites, or you may contact our Business Development Director: [email protected].

    www.intelligenceresearch.com
    www.stratintforum.com
    www.asiaint.com
    www.latinnews.com