CourcyInt

SPECIAL BULLETIN 

TO: All Strategic Intelligence Forum members

FROM: Alex Standish, Editor, Strategic Intelligence Review

DATE: 13 November 2007 

SUBJECT:

RUSSIA TO BE WINNER IN GEORGIA

Although the political crisis in Georgia appears to have been cooled down by the announcement of early presidential elections – in a move which is a major climb down for President Mikhail Saakashvili – the longer-term impact on the country could prove to be profound, particularly in terms of Tbilisi ’s relationship with both Russia and the West.

As we pointed out in the last issue of SIR, Saakashvili is a staunch ally of both Nato and the European Union (see SIR 8 November). For that reason alone, Moscow regards him as an overtly hostile neighbour in its own backyard – or the ‘near abroad’ as some Russian politicians like to refer to former Soviet republics that have gained independence. The Georgian president has also upped the stakes by openly accusing the Kremlin of sending Russian intelligence agents into his country with the aim of inciting protests and disaffection.

Relations between Russia and Georgia – always fragile – have hit a new low following Saakashvili’s allegations that “Russian agitators” were behind the recent demonstrations. Three senior Georgian diplomats have now been expelled by Moscow , while Tbilisi has responded by ordering three Russian envoys out of the country.

Meanwhile, a Georgian minister has also claimed publicly that Moscow is reinforcing its troop deployment in Georgia ’s breakaway region of Abkhazia. According to a statement made by David Bakradze, the minister responsible for conflict resolution, Russia has recently moved additional tanks, artillery and around 200 extra servicemen, mostly Chechens serving with the Russian army, into its base at Ochamchire. Russia already has around 1,700 peace-keeping troops stationed in the area as part of a UN monitored ceasefire deal.

The speaker of the Georgian parliament, Nino Burjanadze, made similar allegations during a national television broadcast in which she referred to “a major movement of Russian military equipment”. Moscow has denied these claims and accused the Georgian authorities of a “provocative act” in making these comments.

Luzhkov's intervention

We believe that it is particularly worthy of note that the mayor of Moscow, Yuri Luzhkov, a Putin loyalist and a politician who usually reflects the views of the Kremlin in his public speeches, has fuelled tensions by urging the Russian government to recognise the independence of Abkhazia. The impact of these comments can be seen from the fact that Saakashvili himself quoted them at the start of a lengthy speech broadcast on Georgia ’s national television channel earlier this week.

In his address, Saakashvili also referred to a previously unreported conversation he said he had with Putin during a summit in Minsk last year. According to the Georgian president, “Putin directly told me at the summit in Minsk that Russia would create a new Cyprus in Abkhazia”. He went on to explain that he understood this threat to mean that Moscow could engineer a permanent division of the country similar to the situation in Cyprus following orchestrated demonstrations in 1973. However Saakashvili also pledged that “the Georgian security and law enforcement agencies, are totally mobilized to ensure that no one seizes Abkhazia or Tskhinvali [ South Ossetia ]”.

Inevitably, there are serious questions about Washington ’s role in the Georgian crisis. Deputy Assistant Secretary of State Matthew J Bryza, who met with Saakashvili in Tbilisi this week, has demanded the lifting of the state of emergency to enable the continuation of “democratic reform”. Although this reflects US concern over the latest developments, it also highlights the extent to which the protest movement has damaged Georgia ’s president’s standing with the US administration. Even if the Kremlin had played no role in destabilising its neighbour, that outcome alone would have gratified President Vladimir Putin’s inner circle of former Soviet KGB chiefs.

Saakashvili’s climb down

Despite having promised not to bow to domestic pressure to bring forward the presidential poll, originally scheduled for the autumn of 2008, Saakashvili – presumably at Washington ’s instigation – has now announced that the election will take place in January. This humiliating climb down within a few days of the television broadcast in which he pledge to support the constitutional order has undoubtedly damaged the president’s credibility, at home and abroad. It is also likely that the state of emergency, which has seen a ban on public demonstrations and a virtual news blackout, will be lifted much earlier than the initial 22 November deadline.

The Georgian opposition has already announced that it will field a single candidate, Levan Gachechiladze, an opposition member of parliament from the New Rights Party. Largely unknown outside Georgia , Gachechiladze is a businessman who owns a firm that produces alcoholic drinks.

A rival figure from Georgia’s business elite, Badri Patarkatsishvili, has also suggested that he might run for the presidency, although it remains to be seen whether the man who is reputed to be the country’s wealthiest, will make it onto the ballot paper. He appears to have a conspicuous lack of domestic support which might hinder his campaign. The opposition – united for the first time behind Gachechiladze, also fears that a second rival to Saakashvili will risk splitting the vote.

Whoever eventually contests the presidential poll will face an incumbent president who, despite his loyalty to the West, has been seriously damaged by recent events. At home, Saaakashvili has appeared to be authoritarian, while abroad his carefully cultivated image as a pro-Western liberal politician has been tarnished. Washington ’s reaction has also revealed the extent to which the US administration has become disenchanted with the Georgian leader.

Russia ’s win-win situation

Moscow is in a win-win situation. Saakashvili, a strongly pro-Western regional leader who dared to challenge Russia ’s drive to reassert its influence in Georgia, has been humbled and his political future called into question. Having openly fuelled fears of a return to conflict in Abkhazia and South Ossetia , the Kremlin has seized the political initiative.

We believe that it is only a matter of time before the Georgian opposition – or at least some sections of it – makes a campaign pledge to rebuild bilateral relations with Putin’s administration. The price of that is likely to be a back-peddling on Georgia ’s ambitions to join either Nato or the EU - and an acceptance of a ‘friendly’ Russia ’s influence in the region.

END