CourcyInt

SPECIAL BULLETIN

TO: All Strategic Intelligence Forum members

FROM: Alex Standish, Editor, Strategic Intelligence Review

DATE: 4 November 2007

SUBJECT: NUCLEAR-ARMED PAKISTAN ON BRINK OF CHAOS

In our recent analysis of the deteriorating situation in Pakistan (see SIR 1 November) we warned that one of the courses open to President Pervez Musharraf would be to declare a state of emergency. Two days later, he did just that, leaving the country on the brink of chaos, with the risk that January’s parliamentary elections may have to be abandoned.

Musharraf’s suspension of the constitution and his declaration of a state of emergency look very much like the last throw of the dice for a leader whose grip on power is steadily slipping away. He is taking an enormous risk by launching a pre-emptive strike against Pakistan ’s senior judiciary.

As we pointed out earlier this week, the Supreme Court was in the midst of considering two specific issues: whether the general was constitutionally eligible to stand for re-election as president and whether Pakistan’s Prime Minister Shaukat Aziz was in contempt of court following his role in the arguably unlawful deportation of former premier Nawaz Sharif in September? A negative verdict against either Musharraf or Aziz would have been seen as further undermining the regime. In the event, the president seems to have lost his nerve by moving against his own Supreme Court justices before either issue could be decided.

Chief Justice Iftikhar Muhammad Chaudhry, regarded by many Pakistanis as a national hero from his role in resisting Musharraf’s bid to dismiss him unconstitutionally, has now been deposed following his refusal earlier today to endorse the state of emergency. His replacement, Hameed Dogar, is a well-known Musharraf loyalist who can be expected to rubber-stamp the general’s decrees. However, given the mass support Chaudhry received across the country earlier this year during his battle with the president, it is unlikely that the chief justice will go quietly, even though the army has placed him under house arrest.

The latest developments will have dashed Washington ’s hopes of a gradual transition back to democracy in Pakistan . It also seems likely that any deal negotiated with former prime minister Benazir Bhutto ahead of parliamentary elections scheduled for January 2008 will have come off the rails. Bhutto and her Pakistan People's Party (PPP) will hardly want to be seen endorsing Musharraf’s latest manoeuvre.

This leaves the general staring into a political abyss. Although unqualified support from the Bush administration is long past, a workable agreement to hold democratic elections with the PPP taking part would have allowed the US to endorse the outcome of the poll without being seen to back a leader who is already deeply unpopular at home. As we have highlighted in recent issues of SIR, recent opinion polls suggest that around 64% of respondents were already opposed to Musharraf standing for a further presidential term (see SIR 11 October). In the aftermath of what many commentators are describing as a second “coup d’état” his unpopularity can be expected to mount, raising the prospect of mass demonstrations and the risk of widespread violence.

By declaring a state of emergency and interfering with the Supreme Court, Musharraf will face escalating opposition from pro-democratic campaigners and rival politicians – as well as making it increasingly difficult for the West to continue supporting him. However, he is also facing a rising tide of violence from Islamist militants seeking revenge against the regime in the aftermath of the storming of Islamabad ’s Lal Masjid (Red Mosque) in July. Terrorist bomb attacks are increasing in frequency and even the army command in Rawalpindi was targeted last week.

Since the general is facing increasing pressure from all sides, the fear is that he will retreat behind a repressive military regime, ruling by decree. Although Pakistan is not Burma ( Myanmar ), there could be disturbing parallels and the prospect of a nationwide campaign of repression against the civilian opposition parties.

Next step martial law?

So far, Musharraf has merely suspended the constitution. He has yet to impose martial law, although that cannot be ruled out, particularly if his opponents take to the streets again, as many of them did during his attempt to oust the chief justice earlier this year. Pakistan is undoubtedly facing a major crisis. The unknown question is whether this will escalate into a full-scale political meltdown, direct army rule, and serious loss of life, particularly in key Bhutto strongholds such as the city of Karachi .

Our concern is that widespread instability is likely to boost popular support for Islamist militants as well as for pro-democracy movements. This in turn could provide fruitful recruitment opportunities for Al-Qaeda and its allies in Pakistan , as well as having the potential to further destabilise neighbouring Afghanistan . Since Pakistan is the world’s only Muslim state possessing nuclear weapons, any slide into a state of chaos would raise very serious concerns for the entire region and beyond – a risk that the US is unlikely to be willing to tolerate.

END