CourcyInt
North Korea after the bomb - 19 October 2006
SPECIAL BULLETIN
TO: All Strategic Intelligence Forum members
DATE: 19 October 2006
SUBJECT: North Korea after the bomb
The Asia Intelligence Service (part of the same group as the Strategic Intelligence Forum) has just published in its October AsiaInt Political & Strategic Review an excellent analysis of the options now facing the international community with regard to North Korea. Stratint Forum members may download this report in full from:
http://www.asiaint.com/arl/arl11752.asp
In our view this report provides a near-faultless analysis of the current position in North Korea, and the options open to the international community. It looks at recent intriguing speculation about China's hopes for post-Kim North Korea, and it makes the point that little has in fact been changed by the North Korean nuclear test.
Our one caveat is that while little might have changed on the Korean peninsula, there might be severe implications for the Middle East where Israel will view any weakness in dealing with Pyongyang as a signal that it will not be able to rely upon anyone else to deal with the menace of a nuclear-armed Iran. As we have argued in detail in the last two issues of Strategic Intelligence Review, Israeli unilateral action against Iran has been brought closer by events on the Korean peninsula.
END
JKC de Courcy
Chairman
Strategic Intelligence Forum